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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
March 31, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The 2009 NFL Draft is less than a month away. Before I get to the mailbag, a few thoughts:
-I've resisted and resisted, but there is too much buzz about Kansas State QB Josh Freeman to ignore any longer. With so many teams in the 18-22 range needing a young quarterback, including potentially Detroit if they don't take Matthew Stafford at the top, it seems inevitable that Freeman will go in the first round.
-Two players who could be top five picks or end up outside of the top ten are Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin and Boston College DT B.J. Raji. I strongly doubt that Maclin will go in the top five with Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree in the mix, but with Maclin's great return skills it's not outside the realm of possibility. As for Raji, many are pegging him in the #5 slot to Cleveland, though he could possibly slide as far as #12 to Denver.
From: Kevin Olson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Sat, Mar 28, 2009 at 2:58 PM
Subject: Vikings draft.
Lou, I have to disagree with you this year. The Viking will not draft a center when they have two options currently on their roster and more pressing needs at other areas. Sullivan, last years 6th rounder, doesn’t start at center, than Ryan Cook could move back to his natural position. Drafting a center in the first round would be a waste. RT is a must. Cook has been a train wreck out there and has been handcuffed to a tight end. WR. is a weak link. Berrian was solid but you can’t go though another year with Bobby Wade is your reception leader, he just doesn’t scare anyone. The Viking need another pass catcher to help free up the running lanes for AP. Finally CB depth is needed. Gordon is coming off a horrible injury and Sapp, and then CB from Denver are nothing special. Therefore, would you please alter your Vikings pick.
Lou: You make a compelling point about the Vikings existing options at center. As usual, fans of any given team tend to have a better read on that team's needs than I have, which is part of why I love the mailbag aspect of this website. You're correct that right tackle is a major need for Minnesota, though that spot could be filled in round two. It may depend on who is on the board when Minnesota's pick comes up at #22; perhaps the Vikings will consider Arizona OT Eben Britton at that spot.
It's not outside the realm of possibility to consider the possibility of Minnesota going with a wide receiver or a corner in round one. Drafting a young defensive tackle makes sense for them as well, though the better value-to-need pick at that spot would likely come in round two or three. There is the lingering potential for a four-game suspension for current defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams (no relation) from the StarCaps scandal (which is in an appeal process now), though I doubt that would shape the team's approach to the draft.
From: Robert Sawicki
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Mar 30, 2009 at 7:40 PM
Subject: Detroit Lions
It's been awhile since i've wrote but I still check your site almost daily, keep up all the hard work. Lou I would like your opinion on how you feel the Lions off season has gone and how it will impact the draft. I feel we picked up a few decent players and 1 really great player in Juilian Peterson(Meaning you can forget about Aaron Curry). I still hope some how we bring in Torry Holt to play across from Calvin and maybe trade for Larry Johnson. My reasoning for this is that myself and tons of other Lions fans DO NOT WANT MATT STAFFORD. I feel put as many playmakers around Culpepper and build the defense. You can win in the NFL with a average QB if you put playmakers around him and if you have a great defense. My wishes for the draft and many Lions fans is: Trade the pick and who cares about value at this point we don't want to take a QB with question marks like Stafford. Yes he has a big arm but who cares so did Jeff George and Jamarcus Russell(busts). Trade down and get an extra 2nd rounder and 5th rounder in return and then build the defense and offensive line. If they can trade out of that pick, draft B.J. Raji with the first pick. With the 2nd first rounder draft (if he slids) Rey Malauga( if not then) James Laurinitis, with the #33 pick draft a ball hawker and hard hitter like Louis Delmas(footballs like baseball you gotta be strong up the middle). With the other 2nd round pick (from my hopefull trade) you pick a guy like Duke Robinson or Alex Mack and with our 1st 3rd round pick go for Herman Johnson. If the draft could play out like that you could pound the rock 30 times a game with our offensive line being; LT Jeff Backus LG Duke Robinson C Dom Riola RG Herman Johnson RT Gosder Cherlius. Then our Defense would be a good start with DE Dewayne White DT Grady Jackson DT BJ Raji DE Cliff Avril, the linebackers would be Sims, Maulaga, Peterson with our corners being Henry and P. Buchannon and the safties Bullocks & Delmas. Sounds and looks good to me (I wish I could be the GM unfortunitly I'm not so none of this would happen and we will be stuck with Matt Stafford and Percy Harvin in the 1st round). I would love to hear your opinions on all this, Thanks and keep up the good work!
Lou: The news out of Detroit today is that Georgia QB Matthew Stafford had a great private workout with the Lions, impressing those in attendance and making him now the odds-on favorite to be the top pick in next month's draft. So, while there may be Lions fans who don't want Stafford to go at the top spot to the team, it appears to be the most likely thing to happen at this point.
As for JaMarcus Russell, it's too soon to call him a bust. Matt Ryan certainly raised the expectations of fans about young quarterbacks, but the success of older QBs like Kerry Collins (once labeled a bust himself) and Kurt Warner revealed the importance of experience as it relates to being an NFL quarterback.
You're right that Aaron Curry wouldn't be a logical pick for Detroit, not only because of the arrival of Peterson but also because of the presence of former first-round pick Ernie Sims. The Lions have many needs, but OLB is not one of them.
Trading down would be tricky since Detroit can realistically only work a deal with the other teams in the top five: the Rams, the Chiefs, the Seahawks, and the Browns. Perhaps Cleveland would consider moving up to #1 to land Curry, but besides that I doubt the Lions would have many takers. The Rams will likely take Baylor OT Jason Smith at #2, the Chiefs don't have a second-round pick (making trading up even more difficult), and the Seahawks might be interested in landing Stafford but probably only if he happens to fall to them at #4.
In short, I wouldn't get your hopes up about B.J. Raji ending up in a Lions uniform in 2009.
From: Santana Huston
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Mar 30, 2009 at 10:05 PM
Subject: raiders draft
I've seen a lot of mock drafts that claim Al Davis' overwhelming love of speed will cause him to take Maclin at #7 but I don't buy it. While the man does love speed, he has only drafted a WR in the first 3 rounds twice in the last 20 years! (Brown 1st rd in 88' and Porter in the 2nd in 00') Maclin is 5'11" 190lbs and is an electrifying returner but the Raiders have that exact same player in Johnnie Lee Higgins except for 3 major differences...1) JLH has no injury history, 2) JLH has timed faster, and most important...3) JLH is PROVEN NFL READY!! It makes no sense to me to take a player that is the exact clone of one on your roster that you picked up in the 4th rd and Maclin will never be a #1 no matter how good he is. That being said, I think Crabtree is the pick and if he, Raji and the top tackles are gone, they will trade out of the #7 slot. Tell me how wrong I am.
Lou: You make a strong point about Johnnie Lee Higgins already filling the speedy return man role for the Raiders. I didn't realize that Davis had such an aversion to drafting wide receivers in the early rounds, and that is interesting. At the same time, two years ago people (myself included) pointed to Davis' history of not using first round picks on quarterbacks as evidence that perhaps Oakland would pass on JaMarcus Russell at the top spot -- but on draft day it was Russell going #1 overall to the Raiders. So we'll see.
Defensive line is a major need for the Raiders, though with Tommy Kelly having such a massive contract I'm not sure if Oakland would be inclined to give top ten draft money to a rookie DT. The Raiders trading down makes sense, but if they stay in that spot then perhaps the most likely player to go there would be one of the elite offensive tackle prospects in the draft. Might we see Andre Smith in Raiders colors this fall?
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