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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
March 11, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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The reports out of the Alabama pro day are in... and they are not good for high-profile OT Andre Smith. ProFootballTalk.com has some details about the poor performance by Smith, reporting that Smith looked slow and out of shape and that he bench pressed 225 pounds just 19 times. Compare that with Jason Smith of Baylor who posted 33 bench presses of 225 pounds, and the stock is definitely falling for Andre Smith. He may fall below Michael Oher and could slide down the board in round one to perhaps a surprising level. Interestingly, tonight on the NFL Network I heard Andre Smith say that he thought today's workout went well.
With the major free agent moves having been made (for the most part) in the NFL, it's probably worth looking at what we can expect to see in the top ten of the draft.
1. Detroit: In my estimation, this is Matthew Stafford's spot to lose. The Lions are rebuilding after an 0-16 season, and while the ghost of Joey Harrington might haunt some Lions fans, the reality is that a quality signal-caller is a must, particularly for a team in Detroit with a world-class quality receiver in Calvin Johnson. And, who knows, maybe Andre Smith will fall to #20 in the draft (where Detroit has Dallas' pick) with the way things are going for him.
2. St. Louis: The Rams have cut OT Orlando Pace and appear primed to release WR Torry Holt as well. In theory the Rams could give consideration to Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree, but with St. Louis having missed out on Michigan OT Jake Long in last year's draft, I'd be most surprised for St. Louis to not go with an offensive tackle at this spot. Baylor OT Jason Smith is the favorite at this point to go first among offensive tackles, but it's not a lock.
3. Kansas City: It should be either an offensive tackle or Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry going to the Chiefs at this spot. At this point I'd think OT over Curry makes the most sense, particularly given that the Chiefs gave up their second-round pick (#34 overall) to New England to get QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel and thus they need to address their offensive tackle needs at this position.
4. Seattle: Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree seems like a great fit for the Seahawks, even with Seattle having brought former Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh on board. Houshmandzadeh turns 32 this year, and while he should be able to produce some results in 2009 and 2010, a player like Crabtree could develop into a long-term, high-end talent in the NFL.
5. Cleveland: The Browns have to be licking their chops at the thought of having OLB Aaron Curry fall to them at this spot. If Curry and Crabtree are both off the board it would be most interesting to see what the Browns would do here. With Joe Thomas on board, the team doesn't appear to be in the hunt for another top five offensive tackle, and there is no need for a quarterback with Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson on the roster.
Missouri WR/KR Jeremy Maclin would be a stretch to take here, and while the Browns could use a top-tier LB to bolster the 3-4 defense, after Curry there isn't a top five linebacker talent who will be on the board, at least in the opinions of many scouts. Cleveland might consider drafting Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins here, and ultimately it will come down to the players who are available and how the Browns new management evaluates them. Trading down is not a likely option since it is very difficult to trade into or out of the top five spots due to the rookie salary cap.
|  | Tra Thomas has signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. (Icon SMI)
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6. Cincinnati: Offensive line is a critical need for the Bengals, and I'd be quite surprised to see the Bengals pass on taking an offensive tackle here. If somehow Aaron Curry was to fall to this spot then that would change things, and perhaps Michael Crabtree would as well, but overall offensive tackle makes the most sense.
7. Oakland: The Raiders could use a strong defensive end, and there should be options there for the team at the spot with guys like Texas DE Brian Orakpo and Florida State DE Everette Brown. But Al Davis is well known for liking speed demons, and lightning-fast Jeremy Maclin could be appealing to him as a wide receiver threat who is also skilled at kick returns.
8. Jacksonville: Signing OT Tra Thomas (who played with Philadelphia in 2008) helped the team's offensive line situation, though the Jaguars could potentially still draft an offensive lineman at this spot. I still like the idea of the Jaguars ending up with USC ILB Rey Maualuga, but they could probably trade down a couple of spots and still do that.
9. Green Bay: CB Malcolm Jenkins would make a great deal of sense for the team. If he's not available, the Packers could go in a number of different directions, from offensive tackle to a linebacker who fits the 3-4 well (maybe Everette Brown moving from DE to OLB) to even a long-shot like Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno.
10. San Francisco: With Alex Smith redoing his contract it appears that he will be sticking around for 2009. At the same time, the 49ers have to find a solution at QB, and Mark Sanchez could be a temptation for them.
Aside from QB, the 49ers could go with a linebacker (either inside or outside in the 3-4 defense) or perhaps a corner if Malcolm Jenkins slides to them at this spot.
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