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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
February 4, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The Super Bowl has come and gone, and the Steelers edged the Cardinals in a classic. I watched the game at an Aflac party at a large hotel south of Nashville, and seeing the reactions of people on the back-and-forth in the fourth quarter was highly comical. People were literally running toward the projection screen in celebration on both sides as the teams exchanged the lead. For the second straight year, the NFL had a thriller in the Super Bowl, something that's good for all involved -- save for perhaps the nerves of the fans of the two teams involved.
As I write this, I have ESPNU on in the background with the National Signing Day coverage going on. If anyone knows when DirecTV is going to pick up the ESPNU HD feed, please let me know. It would be nice to have that by the time the 2009 college football season begins.
I'm not particularly one to follow high school prospects, though Alabama landed an amazing offensive tackle in D.J. Fluker, a 6'7" 325-350 pound (depending on who you believe) athlete who supposedly can run a 4.9 40 and who looks remarkably similar to NFL Hall of Fame WR Michael Irvin (or at least as similar as an offensive tackle can look to Irvin). It looks like Alabama head coach Nick Saban has found a strong replacement for outgoing OT Andre Smith, and I suspect that we'll see Fluker's name on here on down the line looking toward the NFL.
With the NFL season finished, the mailbag input is picking up. Here we go...
From: Phillip Sharp
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Feb 4, 2009 at 8:59 AM
Subject: Draft King - Feb. 4th mock draft
I always enjoy your website and reading your mock drafts…I am a HUGE Atlanta Falcons fan and I look at these drafts from Falcons perspective. Obviously , as you say the draft picture will get clearer after free agency has come and gone.
Regarding the Atlanta Falcons, I think their needs in order of importance will be as follows:
Falcons Needs Heading into Free Agency/Draft:
1. Outside Linebacker – Keith Brooking’s play has deteriorated to the point of being embarrassing. He is the second highest paid linebacker in the game(I know hard to believe) and he is most likely to be a cap casualty. If not, he will likely be restructured to the vet minimum and asked to be a back-up. Michael Boley’s star was shining bright in 2006/2007 but he got arrested in domestic disturbance last summer and his play was very poor as well – he got demoted the last four games of the year. Boley is now a unrestricted free agent and I do not believe either party wants to keep the relationship going. Given these facts, I think Outside Linebacker is the Falcons #1 need. I would anticipate Falcons going after a linebacker in free agency(Karlos Dansby/Bart Scott) and also drafting a linebacker in the first two rounds (James Lauranaitis, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews).
2. Defensive Tackle – Jonathan Babineaux was re-signed to play the undertackle position in the Falcons 4-3 but the nose-tackle(i.e. designatated run stopper) position still needs to be filled. The Falcons gave up 2,040 yards and 15 rushing TD’s – just terrible. If the Falcons did not have two potential vacancies at linebacker, then defensive tackle would be the #1 need. There is a good chance that the Falcons might go after Albert Haynesworth in free agency if Titans don’t get him re-signed by February 27th. Obviously it will take a lot of money but the Falcons do have the cap room to get this done. A cheaper way to go could be Rocky Bernard from Seattle. If Falcons don’t go this route, then the only two DT’s worthy of first round consideration are BJ Raji and Peria Jerry but both could be gone by pick #24.
3. Strong Safety – While Lawyer Milloy is a fearless leader and warrior – his wheels are getting old and that was evident in the Cardinals playoff game. Falcons could fix this position with Sean Jones (former Georgia alum) in free agency. If not, they could look at a safety in 2nd round out of Louis Delmas and Patrick Chung.
4. Defensive End – While John Abraham is “all-world” and should have been in pro-bowl this year with his 16.5 sacks, Jamaal Anderson has been a “top 10” first round bust with two sacks in two years of starting. Its time to fix this position. I doubt very seriously that Julius Peppers ever hits free agency – Carolina will tag him and possibly trade him(not to us!) so I really don’t see any way to improve at defensive end in free agency. Some possible targets for Falcons would be Michael Johnson(high bust factor) in 1st round or Paul Kruger/Robert Ayers in 2nd round.
5. Cornerback – you have us taking Mike Mickens in the first round. I don’t see it as we have much bigger needs on the defense and I don’t think Mickens is a 1st rounder anyways – plus he’s hurt and oft-injured. Falcons need to re-sign Dominque Foxworth and they have “enough” in Chris Houston, Chevis Jackson, Brent Grimes and Von Hutchins(returning from injury) to wait one more year to address in draft or free agency.
6. Tight End – many mocks have the Falcons taking Brandon Pettigrew in late 1st round. It is certainly possible – especially if Falcons sign two top notch defenders in free agency. While Pettigrew is a great blocker I don’t know that he is that “special” in the pass receiver department – is he a Gonzo or a Gates? I don’t think so. I could live with Pettigrew because he is talented but I think an impact linebacker in the first round might be the way to go.
Anyway, I just wanted to give you the “Falcons perspective” from a die-hard fan who follows the team closely – do with this what you will. In your current mock you have both Cushing and Lauranaitis gone. If either were available at #24, I think the Atlanta Falcons would take them. Given your mock with them being gone, I think the Falcons would select Brandon Pettigrew – obviously all this is subject to change with the free agency.
|  | Keith Brooking may be a cap casualty in Atlanta. (Icon SMI)
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Lou: Age catches up with everyone. And, with Keith Brooking turning 34 later this year and coming off of a down season, you're right that he will likely be cut since his $8.3 million cap charge is quite high. His 71 solo tackles in 2008 was the lowest total he's had since 2000 (when he only played in five games), and he likely will be playing elsewhere in 2009.
Haynesworth going to the Falcons would be quite interesting, but there will be many teams vying for Haynesworth's services. Might Atlanta go for a player like Auburn DT Sen'Derrick Marks or USC DT Fili Moala? Perhaps.
Either James Laurinaitis or Brian Cushing would be great for Atlanta, and if one of both of them falls to the #21 spot, they could be quite tempting for the Falcons to consider. Also, I like the idea of the Falcons taking Patrick Chung in round two if he's on the board.
I doubt we'll see the Falcons use a first round pick on a defensive end. Despite Jamaal Anderson's struggles, he (and John Abraham) take up a large chunk of salary cap room. Perhaps Atlanta will look for a defensive end on day two, maybe a player like Wisconsin DE Matt Shaughnessy (who is talented but has suffered from injuries) or a sleeper like Houston DE Phillip Hunt (who could also double as an OLB).
Atlanta has a number of options and needs that it could fill with its top pick, which is usually a good sign that a team is in position to trade down barring a player that the team really wants falling to their spot. The Falcons could potentially trade down into the early part of round two and land multiple picks in exchange and still get a quality player with the lower pick.
From: Robert Bruce
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Feb 4, 2009 at 12:14 PM
Subject: Draft Rankings
I just wanted to check with you on your rankings for offensive tackles. On most sites I have seen, they have Jason Smith as a top 13 pick (some say he could be the best long term prospect from this draft) and Eben Britton as a late first round pick. On your mock, you have Jason Smith going to the Eagles at 21, and Britton not even in the first round. I was wondering what you have seen in these 2 prospects to make them slide down so far in your mock. Thanks Lou and keep up the great work.
Lou: This is a tremendous draft for the offensive tackle position, arguably the best this decade (if not longer). That's why, at least to a degree, I think the Lions will opt not to go with an offensive tackle at #1 (or #20) and instead look for a offensive tackle talent later, perhaps at the top of round two.
Jason Smith is a very strong prospect, and as I mentioned last month, Smith could potentially go #2 overall to the Rams. Mel Kiper thinks very highly of him, and in another year he could be a top ten lock. But with the likes of Andre Smith and Michael Oher and Eugene Monroe in the mix, J. Smith could end up sliding down and being a bargain pick.
It's possible that Arizona OT Eben Britton could end up as a late first round pick, though I could see him being a player that Detroit snags with the #33 overall selection. He is a great prospect who would have been a lock to be a high-mid first rounder in 2010, but he opted to throw his hat into the ring in an already loaded offensive line class.
Ultimately, it will come down to how the various NFL GMs evaluate the top tier offensive tackle prospects. Moreover, if Britton shows improved fundamentals in private workouts and at the combine, he could end up moving up the ladder. But there are only so many offensive tackles who will go in the first round, and at this point Britton appears to be on the outside looking in as far as round one goes.
|  | OLB Clay Matthews could be a good value pick in the 2009 Draft. (Icon SMI)
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From: Chris Spousta
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Feb 4, 2009 at 1:28 PM
Subject: Clay Matthews and Josh Freeman vs Mark Sanchez
Hey Lou, I really enjoy your site and I have written to you several times before. Just wanted to ask your opinion on several players starting with Clay Matthews from USC. Where do you see him fitting in the draft, and is there a way the Chiefs could get him in the third round? I also agree with your pick for a OT but it will be really interesting to see what the Chiefs do because they have holes at every spot execpt for CB. Lastly, who do you think is the better QB prospect, Josh Freeman from KState or Mark Sanchez out of USC? Do you think either will be available on day two of the draft?
Lou: USC OLB Clay Matthews is the overlooked member of the 2008 USC linebacker trio, with ILB Rey Maualuga and OLB Brian Cushing gaining the bulk of the attention from scouts. Right now Matthews looks like either a second or third round pick, and it's entirely possible that he could be on the board when the Chiefs pick near the top of round three.
As for Mark Sanchez vs. Josh Freeman, I consider Sanchez to be the stronger of the two prospects. Sanchez has better mobility and better accuracy than Freeman. Freeman is huge at 6'6" 250, but he is more of a project at the position than Sanchez. The knock on Freeman, accuracy aside, is his need to improve on the fundamentals. When flushed from the pocket, Sanchez has shown that he can still throw the ball accurately.
At this point there are many who think that the Chiefs will take Sanchez with the #3 overall pick. I could see that happening, though I still think that the Chiefs will be very tempted to take one of the blue chip offensive tackles at that spot. As for Freeman, he looks more like a second round pick at this point. If he's able to improve on his fundamentals before the draft, perhaps Freeman will be able to move up into the late first round. But, at this point, Sanchez appears to be a significantly stronger QB prospect than Freeman.
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