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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
January 17, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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Let the shell games begin: Seahawks GM and team president Tim Ruskell told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer this week that he isn't fond of using high draft picks on offensive linemen. My belief as of this writing is that the Seahawks will take Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree if he is on the board when they pick at #4, but if Crabtree ends up going before that spot it would be interesting to see what the Seahawks would do, particularly in a draft that is so deep at offensive tackle.
Conceptually the draft speculation is starting to take shape toward the top, as it normally does once the January 15 early entry deadline passes. Detroit at #1 would seem fit to take a quarterback (likely Georgia QB Matthew Stafford, with USC QB Mark Sanchez appearing to be the closest thing to second place at this point). If not a QB, then the Lions would likely go with an offensive lineman, and it may come down to how the Lions evaluate Stafford at the combine and in private workouts.
 | Baylor's Jason Smith is a strong offensive tackle prospect. (Icon SMI)
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At #2, the Rams would seem to be in position to have their pick of the offensive tackle bonanza. I personally like Alabama OT Andre Smith the best out of the bunch, but other contenders for that spot include Virginia OT Eugene Monroe, Ole Miss OT Michael Oher, and Baylor OT Jason Smith. The word out of St. Louis is that the Rams would have taken Michigan OT Jake Long at #2 had the Dolphins not snagged him at #1 overall in last year's draft.
Kansas City has a number of options with the third selection. If somehow Matthew Stafford fell to that spot I'd imagine he'd be snatched up, but if not then it would be either stretching to take USC QB Mark Sanchez, taking a quality offensive tackle prospect, or perhaps going with Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry, a player who many draft experts hold in very high esteem. Keep in mind that it remains to be seen if Kansas City will maintain its 4-3 defense or switch to a 3-4, which could impact the team's decision.
The Crabtree-to-Seattle scenario has already been mentioned, but if that doesn't happen (and if Ruskell really doesn't want to take an offensive tackle at that spot) then perhaps Seattle would consider Curry, or maybe a defensive end like Texas DE Brian Orakpo, at the #4 spot.
Rounding out the top five (which really is a sub-section of its own since trading into or out of it is rare) is Cleveland, which could go in a variety of directions at #5. Presently I have them taking USC ILB Rey Maualuga at this position, but they could go with anyone from him to Ohio State ILB James Laurinaitis to his Buckeye teammate CB Malcolm Jenkins with that pick. The team has yet to name Phil Savage's successor as general manager, so any predictions for this selection are mere speculation at this point.
In Charlotte the Carolina Panthers face a tough decision between now and the start of unrestricted free agency. Two former first round picks are slated to be unrestricted free agents: DE Julius Peppers and OT Jordan Gross. Both players cannot be franchised, and Peppers has made it clear that he wants out of Carolina. It seems odd to me that Peppers would go out of his way to sabatoge a one-year, $17 million payday (roughly how much the Panthers would have to pay him if they use the franchise tag on him and Peppers signs a one-year contract), but he clearly is itching to hit the free agent market.
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