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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
January 6, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
Before I begin, congrats to Texas for its thrilling win over Ohio State last night in Tempe, AZ. The game itself was a thriller. Two things worth noting:
-This article from Stewart Mandel echoes my thoughts (and the thoughts of others) about both the BCS and FOX's coverage of last night's Fiesta Bowl. Halftime was especially hellish with FOX showing the bands of both schools (someone at FOX is obsessed with marching bands in my opinion) and ESPN not being able to show highlights from the game during its SportsCenter special that went on head-to-head with the game.
-The girlfriend of Colt McCoy, Rachel Glandorf, has shown every other girlfriend of a high-profile college athlete how to get on TV -- sit next to his parents during the game. This synopsis from The Big Lead explains it all.
While the Fiesta Bowl win was exciting, Texas fans have to be bullish about Colt McCoy coming back wanting to win the following next season: a Heisman Trophy, the Big 12 South, the Big 12 Championship Game, and perhaps the BCS Title. That's a tall order, but McCoy showed last night that he is capable of it all.
In turn, how will this impact Sam Bradford? Would he pass up being a potential Top 3 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft to come back for at least one more Oklahoma vs. Texas matchup in the Red River Rivalry/Shootout?
Utah's attorney general "is launching an investigation into the Bowl Championship Series for a possible violation of federal antitrust laws" according to the Salt Lake Tribune. Between that, and President-Elect Barack Obama giving his public support to a college football playoff system, hopefully we might see some needed changes in that direction.
Also, more on topic with this site, in a change from what was originally announced, South Carolina OLB Eric Norwood has reversed his initial decision to enter the NFL Draft and now plans to return to the Gamecocks for his senior season in 2009. So now South Carolina is only losing two junior defensive players to the NFL, not three.
Pitt RB LeSean "Shady" McCoy says that he's coming back to school for his redshirt junior year next season. This is not binding until January 15, but McCoy being out of the draft would make an already rather weak overall RB group even weaker, a stark contrast from last year's superior RB class.
This is busy season for the site, which means more mailbag fun. I love these mailbag segments.
From: Jim Henry
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Sun, Jan 4, 2009 at 8:48 AM
Subject: Mock Draft
I enjoyed your draft very much. It's nice to be able to read the reasons behind each selection in the first round. I wanted to point out to you though that the Jets would get the Saints pick not the Giants. Also I don't see the Jets taking Tebow. He is too much of a wild card as a passer. He is a great leader and an inspiration to his team, along with a high character but I don't see him going in the top three rounds as a QB. I think you will see him return for his senior year and attempt to improve his passing. He tried to do that this year by running less but after the Ole Miss loss you could see him lean on the running more. As a Jets fan, and depending on the coach, I think they will go LB in the first round or CB. Some think receiver but the emergence of David Clowney this year gives them a legitimate deep threat and Chansi Stuckey will easily replace Coles if he ends up being released due to contract problems. I also believe that the Brad Smith Experiment will be over when the new coach comes in. Don't be surprised if the Jets take a running back in the first round if a good one falls to them. And back to the Saints pick. I think they will let Vilma go and then try to resign him. I wish I new what the Jets would get, if anything, if they do that. They have to get something I would think.
Anyway I will be watching your Mock every week and thank you for being accessible.
Lou: I'm throwing in the towel on figuring out the whole "what happens to the Saints' first round pick if they sign Jonathan Vilma to a new contract" talk. It appears that the Saints aren't going to do that, and until I hear otherwise, I'm going to take the easy way out and pretend that it doesn't exist.
Best case for the Saints is that they are able to sign Vilma when he hits unrestricted free agency (in which case, I believe, the Saints lose their third round pick to the Jets) and then don't have to sweat out having Rey Maualuga and/or James Laurinaitis fall to them at #14. Vilma was a great fit for the Saints this year, but for reasons already discussed on here New Orleans will have to roll the dice that they can bring him back with a long-term deal once March 1, 2009 arrives.
|  | The Jets no longer have Justin Miller at cornerback. (Icon SMI)
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There are wildly varying opinions on Tim Tebow and his NFL potential. No one questions his heart, his work ethic, or his toughness. The big question: can he lead an NFL offense from under center with a five-or-seven step drop? I think that one Tebow shows his skills on his pro day and at the combine, be it in 2009 or 2010 depending on if he turns pro, he'll show that he is more than capable of performing well in a more traditional passing attack.
I realize that I could be wrong in that assessment. And, until Tebow goes through the evaluation period, the projections on him should vary considerably. But, if Tebow falls to the fourth round, that would shock me (barring injury).
The Jets could easily go LB or CB, particularly since they cut CB Justin Miller surprisingly mid-season to bring in CB Ty Law, who turns 35 next month and isn't under contract yet for 2009. Linebacker goals could depend on if the new regime in New York retains the 3-4 defense in place, though with the personnel moves made in 2008 to bring in players who are better suited for a 3-4 it might be tough to switch back to a 4-3 right away.
As for the Jets going with a running back, 26-year-old Leon Washington enters his final year under contract in 2009 (with a base of $530,000) while Thomas Jones has two years left on his deal ($900,000 for 2009 and then a steep $2.8 million for 2010). Jones turns 31 in August, but he's coming off of a year when he had 1,500+ rushing/receiving yards, a 4.5 YPC average on 290 attempts and had 15 total touchdowns, which is impressive.
Could the Jets going with a first round back happen? Perhaps. But I'd think that if the Jets are looking for a running back, they might be more likely to go for an RB in rounds two or three. Just a hunch there, and again that also depends on the opinion of whoever the new management is.
From: Matt Segerman
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 12:00 AM
Subject: raiders
just wondering on what you think about clay matthews brian cushing and everette brown.....and which one would be there in the 2-3 rounds
Lou: I think Cushing is gone by round one. Everette Brown is up and coming and might be early second round if he doesn't make it into the first 32 pick round. As for Clay Matthews, he is vastly overlooked behind Rey Maualuga (this video of Maualuga sneaking up on ESPN's Erin Andrews is worth seeing -- think of it what you will) and Cushing in the third part of a tremendous linebacker corps. But, with a good combine and pro day, Matthews could end up as a second rounder himself.
Worth noting: all three USC starting linebackers will be taking part in the Senior Bowl later this month.
From: Scott Anonymous
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 6:08 AM
Subject: Texans, typos, and Chiefs
I have to disagree with your Texans fan that wrote in. Correlation does not equal causation - Dunta Robinson's return had little to do with the Texans record over the end of their season. The return of Matt Schaub combined with a ridiculously soft schedule had way more to do with it. Dunta is NOT up to full speed. He'll probably be fine next mini-camp, but let's not forget that he literally tore his hamstring off of the bone and tore a knee ligament. The Texans aren't forgetting that and neither are the other 31 teams in the league. He'll garner somewhere around what Corey Webster or Asante Samuel got, not what Nate Clements got (btw - that contract looks horrible in retrospect). I think if the Texans offer him that, everyone will be happy. He is a fan favorite in Houston.
I say it's a 50-50 deal on whether or not Dunta gets franchised, but at any rate, I don't think that even if they do franchise him, or re-sign him, that it means the Texans won't be in the CB market. Mike Jenkins was a possibility last draft, and that was with the Texans confident in Fred Bennett. He doesn't look so hot after this year. If the Texans don't sign Dunta, you can pretty much pencil them in for a CB.
The problem with the Texans in this year's draft is that their draft position isn't as good as the team needs it to be. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade down again this year; of course that's really hard to project because you have to find a trading partner as well! Depending on who the defensive coordinator is that they sign, I could see them going toward any defensive position. The defense needs help everywhere, as it's finished in the bottom five of the league for four or five years in a row.
|  | Junior DE Everette Brown is a player on the rise. (Icon SMI)
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Side note - you mentioned Everette Brown as a possible 3-4 DE. I'm pretty sure you meant OLB.
Oh, and I don't follow the Chiefs, but how they've got to hate being at #3! It's so hard to trade out of and I would argue that the defensive line is where they need the most help, but Bradford and Stafford are virtually impossible to pass up. They set an NFL record this year in the amount of sacks they recorded on defense: ten! There are twelve PLAYERS in the league that had that many. Good luck nailing that pick, Lou.
Lou: The top five picks fall into their own sub-section -- trading into, or out of, that area is very difficult. The Chiefs certainly missed Jared Allen's sack production in 2008, but they need a franchise quarterback. If they can get Matthew Stafford or Sam Bradford there, I think they'll take him (but, first things first, the team needs a new GM).
There is a chance that the Chiefs could go with a defensive end who breaks away from the pack between now and April, and there are a number of DEs who could potentially move into that role. I imagine that the cloudy picture will clear up between now and late April.
As for Everette Brown, a 3-4 DE wouldn't be an ideal spot for him since he's more speed than size (though at 6'4" 250 he's not small), but I was just making a comparison with him and Penn State's Aaron Maybin relative to each player's likelihood to play OLB in a 3-4 defense. Brown is looking stronger and stronger as a first round defensive end prospect for a 4-3 defense if he comes out early, and he has such momentum behind him that he could even rocket up to consideration by the Chiefs. Just something to consider there.
You make a valid point about Dunta Robinson's injury being a severe one, and time will tell as to what degree Robinson is able to recover. Perhaps the Texans won't use a high draft selection on a CB, but they might look to the free agent market to add some depth at that spot.
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