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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 2, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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Thanks to the Dolphins losing to the Jets today and the Rams beating the Falcons, Miami is 0-12 and every other NFL team has at least three wins. If the Dolphins don't win at least three of their final four games: at Buffalo, home to Baltimore, at New England (!!), and finally the closer at home against Cincinnati, they will be assured of the top pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.
Speaking of New England, through tonight's action, they are now in the #2 slot for the 2008 NFL Draft thanks to San Francisco's loss at Carolina and the win percentage tiebreaker. If you're wondering how that looks down the stretch, the 49ers have three straight home games (Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay) before closing the season at Cleveland.
Give credit to Hawaii and Colt Brennan for their gutsy comeback at home against Washington late late last night. For people in the Eastern time zone, that wrapped up at around 3:15 a.m., which is not exactly prime time. Hawaii was down 21-0 in the first quarter, yet they rallied for the win. Brennan was 42-of-50 for 442 yards and five touchdowns. We'll see how he does against Georgia, but he sure looked impressive in leading Hawaii on the charge.
At this point, Brennan has a pretty strong hold on the #4 QB spot behind the Big Three (BC's Matt Ryan, Kentucky's Andre Woodson, and Louisville's Brian Brohm.) Brennan is 6'3" so he has NFL quality height, though he weighs about 20 pounds than the Big Three. He may not land in the first round, but I could easily see a team using a high second round pick on him to develop as a "starting quarterback of the future."
While Ron Dayne actually looked good today for the Texans against the Titans, it was clear to me that Houston very much needs a top flight RB. The Texans' secondary could use a boost, as on several occasions today, the Titans' lackluster receiving corps actually managed to get open (though on the Roydell Williams touchdown reception, some of the separation that Williams gained was due to Young executing a great pump fake.) Naturally, the Titans receivers had some drops, but Vince Young looked great. All the critics who were dogging him can stick it; he is something special.
On the bus ride from the game to the remote parking area at Greer Stadium (the run-down home of the AAA Nashville Sounds), I overheard a couple of fans discussing the idea of Darren McFadden being the #1 overall pick. While I still feel strongly that the Dolphins will take Glenn Dorsey at the top spot, it will be interesting to see how Miami handles the likely public pressure to take McFadden if Ronnie Brown faces any setbacks in his torn knee ligament recovery. I might have engaged them in conversation if I wasn't having to constantly maintain my balance in the standing room only area in the middle on the shifting bus.
Along the same lines, in a post-game meal at Applebee's, my buddy Brian Cart (who I've known since first grade) and I ended up at a table near the host/welcoming spot near the front of the restaurant. The Giants vs. Bears game was on in glorious HD, and I happened to overhear a number of interesting comments about the game from the apparently underworked staff, two of which are below:
1. "I'm totally confused, I could swear they said Adrian Peterson is playing running back for the Bears. How did that happen?" Of course, this was Georgia Southern's Adrian Peterson carrying the rock for the Bears, not Oklahoma's Adrian "All Day" Peterson. Here's an open question to you the reader: does anyone know the middle name of the Chicago AP? I know that the Oklahoma star now on the Vikings is Adrian Lewis Peterson, but there seems to be no information available as to any middle name for the Bears' Adrian Peterson. Wikipedia lists him as "Adrian N. Peterson" but with the dreaded "citation needed" notation next to the middle initial. How is this not public knowledge? The official NFL website doesn't even have clarification on this. I consider myself an expert at finding information online, and I haven't been able to discover an answer.
2. "What is wrong with Eli Manning?" He lead the Giants to a clutch win in Chicago, but early on it was ugly. The porous offensive line doesn't help things much, but the blame/credit is often tagged on the quarterback, fairly or not.
In looking at the college bowl game matchups, there are a few interesting battles that will take place involving top-tier prospects:
-Can Jake Long and Mike Hart impress against a very tough Florida defense in the Capital One (Citrus) Bowl? I suspect that Tim Tebow will be able to carve through the Wolverine defense, but the idea of a Derrick Harvey vs. Jake Long matchup (if UF puts Harvey on Long's side) is enticing.
-We were robbed of seeing Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly vs. Kansas CB Aqib Talib in the Fiesta Bowl (instead it's OU/WVU in the Fiesta and Virginia Tech/Kansas in the Orange Bowl), but it will be very interesting to see how Oklahoma's underrated defense matches up against the West Virginia spread offense.
-Missouri went from BCS Title game hopes to playing in the Cotton Bowl, which must sting. But the upside is that it should be a fantastic game when they take on Arkansas. My suspicion is that the Razorbacks are going to run all over the Tigers, but Missouri is no joke (they beat Illinois and only lost to one team this year, albeit twice.) Can Arkansas' defense hold the Missouri tight end duo in check?
-I'm intrigued as to how Andre Woodson will fare against Florida State in the Music City Bowl. There's an outside shot I'll attend that New Year's Eve game (after very likely traveling to Memphis for the Mississippi State/UCF game at the Liberty Bowl on 12/29) since the Music City Bowl is in my hometown. And, yes, it disgusts me to put any money into a broken bowl system and reward those who fight to keep it, but I'm doing it for scouting purposes for DraftKing.com.
-Matt Ryan will show his skills in the Champs Sports Bowl against Michigan State, and I expect him to light it up. Brian Brohm (the last of the Big Three) doesn't even get to play in a bowl game since Louisville went 6-6 and, while bowl eligible, his school failed to secure a bowl invite.
-Naturally, great-drawing but 6-6 Alabama is going to a bowl game, albeit the Independence Bowl against Colorado. But it will be interesting to see what kind of showing DJ Hall has, and it will be a good opportunity for Colorado senior OLB Jordan Dizon to show his skills to an audience that largely hasn't seen him play. Dizon is the 2007 Big XII Player of the Year, yet his projection for the draft is low, down in the late rounds. He is slower than many higher-projected outside linebackers (4.65, compared with the 4.5 range for others), and at 6' he is shorter than the 6'2" to 6'3" prototype height for the spot, but the guy makes an insane number of tackles and has a knack for finding the ball. But the reality is that many scouts see him as a 5th-to-7th round pick, and my job on here is to analyze information, not make claims as to where I think a guy *should* go. Otherwise I'd be a scout... or perhaps working for a TV sports network.
-What's stranger: East Carolina and Boise State playing in the Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, or Georgia Tech and Fresno State clashing on the blue turf of the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise?
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