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2005 NFL Mock Draft Breakdown
January 6, 2005
From time to time I'll go through my mock draft and provide detailed thoughts on who I see going where, and why I have them projected as such.
1. San Francisco 49ers - Matt Leinart, QB, USC
The 49ers have a number of needs, but most pressing is the need at QB. It should be a two-horse race between Leinart and Aaron Rodgers for who the 49ers will pick here. But as of this writing the team doesn't have a head coach or GM, so things could change depending on who is brought on board.
2. Miami Dolphins - Cadillac Williams, RB, Auburn
The Dolphins didn't have many things go their way in 2004, but the biggest hit by far was the retirement of Ricky Williams on the eve of training camp. Had Miami known that Williams was going to retire back at the 2004 Draft, the team could've selected Steven Jackson and been much better off.
There are three elite RBs in this draft (Cadillac, Cedric Benson and Ronnie Brown), but I say that Miami will take Cadillac. Though ultimately it will come down to Miami deciding that he's the best choice of the three and that they are better off taking a RB instead of Leinart or Rodgers (whichever falls from #1). But considering the team gave up its second rounder last off-season for A.J. Feeley, who knows for sure what this team will end up doing.
3. Cleveland Browns - Mike Williams, WR, USC
The e-mails from Cleveland fans have not been very happy thus far with my projection of the Browns taking Williams. Cleveland could easily take Aaron Rodgers here, I realize that. If that happens, I think it would make sense as well. Offensive line is a huge need, though the Browns will likely have to stay at #3 if that's part of its plans (since Chicago, Tampa Bay AND Tennessee all need OT help).
But in the end, I think that Williams will be such a bright, shining star that Cleveland will feel that it has no choice but to take him. He was a Top 10 prospect last year before the Clarett ruling put him into no-man's land. This time around, he might find himself in the top three of the draft.
4. Chicago Bears - D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
If Mike Williams falls here, I could see the Bears taking him. But under this scenario, I imagine they'll take Ferguson. Ferguson has not yet declared for the NFL Draft (he has one year of eligibility remaining), but he's considered, along with Alex Barron, the best of the 2005 Draft crop. The Bears could use some offensive line help, and a big tackle like Ferguson would fit the bill nicely.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Alex Barron, OT, Florida State
Bucs coach Jon Gruden told the world after the season ended that the team intends to make big changes in its offensive line. Adding a talent like Barron would help to make that vision happen. Barron is a tenacious blocker who could be starting for the Bucs depending on what happens with some of the incumbent linemen this off-season. If Gruden wasn't in charge, I'd project them taking a RB here, but Gruden has never been the type to go for a single RB type offense. As such, I don't see Tampa Bay investing in a guy like Cedric Benson, even though he could do some great things for them right away.
6. Tennessee Titans - Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas
The Titans could use an offensive lineman like Ferguson or Barron. But if they're gone, they should go for the best non-QB player on the board, who in this case is D.J.
Johnson was a dominant force at Texas, and while the Titans have a good linebacker group (albeit one that was stricken with the injury bug in 2004), Johnson would make them even better.
7. Oakland Raiders - Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal
You just know that Rodgers won't really fall this far. Dallas would trade the #11 and/or #18 to move up to get hi before that would happen, in my opinion. But if Rodgers does slide, Oakland would be crazy to pass him up. Kerry Collins is 32, and Oakland management should already be VERY familiar with Rodgers from him playing at nearby Cal.
8. Arizona Cardinals - Cedric Benson, RB, Texas
I feel pretty safe in saying that Arizona would be best served by taking one of the Big Three RBs at this spot. Benson would be a nice fit; his consistent play in college should translate well to the pros, and having the chance to learn from Emmitt Smith wouldn't hurt things, either.
9. Washington Redskins - Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin
Let's see: Washington has Fred Smoot and Sean Taylor in the secondary, Lavar Arrington in the LB corps... and now it can add another elite talent, this time to its defensive line in the form of Erasmus James. Mathias Kiwanuka is a DE they might also look at (since he's such a physical freak), but James would likely be able to perform sooner than later, and I think that would appeal strongly to Joe Gibbs and company.
10. Detroit Lions - Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College
Much like Washington, Detroit needs to improve its pass rush in 2005. Kiwanuka, while still a bit raw, has some astounding physical skills. He's 6'7" and has great quickness in persuing the QB. Bulking up a little more would help, but at his current weight he has posted 21˝ sacks in his past two seasons at BC. Plus, admit it: seeing Kiwanuka vs. Daunte Culpepper twice a year in the NFC North would be pretty exciting, no?
11. Dallas Cowboys - Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami
What Dallas does might be predicated on how happy it is at the QB position. If Drew Henson is advancing as they want, then perhaps trading up for Aaron Rodgers is a bit unreasonable. Or if that doesn't work, snagging Alex Smith with their other first rounder (#18) might be a possibility.
Regardless, Rolle at #11 would be a steal. As by far the best corner in the draft, Dallas would be improving a secondary that fell short of expectations going into 2004 with Rolle.
12. San Diego Chargers (from NY Giants) - Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan
It's been fun to watch San Diego Charger games this season, if for nothing else to see Drew Brees throw the ball to random WRs and find yourself wondering "Who is that?" Landing Keenan McCardell from Tampa Bay was a nice move, and Reche Caldwell was on his way to the typical WR third-year breakout before injury, but the Chargers need to take a strong WR with one of their two first rounders. Edwards certainly fits the bill. The guy was clutch this season for Michigan, proving that he had overcome any problems he had with dropped balls in posting some gaudy numbers for the Wolverines. He'd be a great fit for San Diego.
13. Houston Texans - Dan Cody, DT/DE, Oklahoma
This might be a bit high for Cody to go, but he'd be an ideal selection for Houston's 3-4 defense. Houston might also look offensive line with this pick.
14. Carolina Panthers - Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma
Considering that Carolina spent a high first rounder on Jordan Gross two years ago and then took an OT in the third round last year, this pick might seem strange on the surface. But the Panthers' offensive line fell apart in 2004, and adding Brown to the mix would only begin to help fix things on that end. Another possibility is Carolina playing spoiler to division rival New Orleans and taking Ahmad Brooks here (another OLB would help make a tough defense even tougher).
15. Kansas City Chiefs - Justin Miller, CB, Clemson
Okay KC, let's try this again. You need defensive help in your secondary. Just like last year... when you took ZERO cornerbacks or safeties in the draft. This time do the right thing, stand pat and take the best CB on the board, which in this case would be Justin Miller. Miller, who is officially coming out, would have faced a suspension at the start of the 2005 season due to his part in the brawl in the 2004 Clemson/South Carolina game.
16. New Orleans Saints - Ahmad Brooks, OLB, Virginia
Brooks and the Saints would be a nice match. The Saints have outside linebacker needs, and Brooks is a skiller OLB, behind only the amazing Derrick Johnson on my list of OLBs.
17. Cincinnati Bengals - Anttaj Hawthorne, DT, Wisconsin
There should be a wide variety of DT talent on the board at this spot, allowing Cincinnati to choose whomever they want among a group of pretty nice players. My guess is that they'll take Hawthorne, but any number of DT prospects are possible here.
18. Dallas Cowboys (from Buffalo Bills) - Rodrique Wright, DT, Texas
If Dallas really does land Antrel Rolle and Rodrique Wright, you'd have to consider that a successful first round. The Cowboys need some beef in the middle, and Wright would provide that. Don't discount the possibility, however, of Dallas taking Virginia OG Elton Brown in this spot.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars - Matt Roth, DE, Iowa
The Jaguars have two first rounders at DT, but the DE spot has been a tough one for them, with both starters at the position finding themselves cut prior to the 2004 season. Roth would fill a need nicely for the Jags.
20. Baltimore Ravens - Fred Gibson, WR, Georgia
Some people think that this is too high for Fred Gibson, but I project a great combine for him and think he'll prove worthy of this spot. Baltimore is WR desperate, almost as much so as San Diego, and after being burned at the 11th hour by Terrell Owens last year, you have to think that the Ravens will make WR a top priority in the draft.
21. Minnesota Vikings - Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma
Oh those Vikings... They gave their floundering coach an extension, they backed into the playoffs at 8-8, but they still can't be overlooked when it comes to their explosive offense. The team needs a #2 WR; Marcus Robinson was nice and all this year, but some youth would be helpful. Clayton would certainly fit the bill on all counts for the Vikings.
22. St. Louis Rams - Channing Crowder, ILB, Florida
Crowder officially announced his intention to enter the NFL Draft yesterday. He's a Larry Fitzgerald exception (a sophomore who's three years past his high school graduation), so he's eligible for the draft. He said that he received excellent feedback from the NFL's undergraduate advisory council and that he expects to be a first round pick. As the best middle LB in the draft, he should go to either St. Louis or Seattle.
23. New York Jets - Corey Webster, CB, LSU
The Jets have a variety of options, but I like the notion of them taking Webster, who proved himself as a stand-alone talent in 2004 after excelling in 2003 with a loaded secondary. The Jets are a team that often look to the "best player available", so who knows for sure what they'll do, but Webster makes sense in this spot.
24. Denver Broncos - Heath Miller, TE, Virginia
Miller is the best tight end prospect, and Denver desperately needs a TE. It makes total sense to me for Denver to take Miller in this spot.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn
I don't expect Seattle to be able to retain Shaun Alexander this off-season due to a flurry of free agents being eligible to leave the team. Because of that, I see Seattle letting Alexander leave, keeping Matt Hasselback (and maybe OT Walter Jones, too) and drafting Ronnie Brown here... if he does in fact fall this far.
26. Green Bay Packers - Alex Smith, QB, Utah
Brett Favre will hang it up eventually, and when he does Green Bay needs to be ready. Smith seems like a good choice for moving into the apprentice spot, particularly with youth and a perfect 2004 season on his side.
27. San Diego Chargers - Marcus Spears, DE, LSU
Assuming that the Chargers land Braylon Edwards earlier, a DE at this spot makes the most sense. Marcus Spears from LSU is the best of the bunch remaining at that position, and he would be a reasonable pick at #27.
28. Indianapolis Colts - Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn
Much like Kansas City, Indianapolis needs to draft a corner. Rogers would be able to step in and contribute right away, at the very least in nickel coverage situations.
29. Atlanta Falcons - Elton Brown, OG, Virginia
If Brown lasts until #29, Atlanta should consider itself lucky. Protecting Michael Vick is very important, and Brown has what it takes to help protect the franchise QB.
30. New England Patriots - Chris Henry, WR, West Virginia
Henry has "character issues", but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for the moment. If his interviews go well and he proves that he can be a team player, then he could be a really nice pickup for New England. Some draft experts think Henry has the most potential of any WR in this draft. That's a bold statement, but at the very least Henry would benefit from the discipline of Bill Belichick and a system where he wouldn't be expected to perform big things right away.
31. Philadelphia Eagles - Ciatrick Fason, RB, Florida
Fason has applied for early entry into the draft, and with a wife and two kids who can blame him? While Philly has a good RB in Brian Westbrook, Fason would be a nice fit to provide depth and potentially eventually become a starter.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Shaun Cody, DT, USC
Pittsburgh could go in a whole host of directions, but with a DT of this quality still on the board, why not take him here?
December 6, 2004 Mock Draft breakdown
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