The downfall of Jake Locker's pro projections
National Football League
Draft King Analysis
September 20, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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Coming into this past weekend, Jake Locker appeared to have a lead on the battle to be the top NFL quarterback prospect for 2011, albeit a tenuous one. But, after being exposed by Nebraska, he might be more realistically projected behind Stanford QB Andrew Luck and Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, though both of those players have remaining college eligibility for 2011 and thus it's not a lock that they will be in the 2011 NFL Draft.
How bad was it for Locker? The stat line tells the story: 4-20 passing for 71 yards, with one passing TD and two interceptions. He also ran 11 times for 59 yards and another TD. To be fair, Locker faced constant pressure from Nebraska's defense, but watch any NFL game and you'll see even the best QBs facing pressure and being forced to make lightning-quick decisions.
Don't expect Locker to have a Jevan Snead type free-fall in the draft next April, but it seems hard to fathom that he will be the top quarterback drafted, let alone the #1 pick as he is presently projected on this website. When the mock on here is updated, look for him to be no better than the third QB to go off the board, and even that might be inflated.
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Jake Locker had a tough outing this past Saturday. (Icon SMI)
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It's not fair to make a sweeping judgment on just one bad game, but even in success earlier this year, Locker has shown signs of problems. Even with the great statistical game that Locker had against Syracuse, some observers observed problems that Locker had and how he has some fortunate things fall his way.
This isn't to say that Locker won't be able to develop into a quality NFL quarterback, but Saturday's poor performance will definitely make general managers much more leery about using a top pick on him. Quarterback is a boom-or-bust position in no small part because of the difficulty in projecting how well an individual will be able to perform against NFL quality defenses. On Saturday we saw what might be the closest simulation of Locker against a pro level defense when he faced Nebraska's menacing defense, and it turned out very poorly for him. This does not bode well for his NFL projections.
On the flip side from Locker was Alabama RB Mark Ingram. Ingram, who saw his first action of 2010 (after recovering from a knee injury) on the road against Duke, showed from his first carry that he still has, ripping off a 48 yard run. In what turned into a rout, Ingram carried the ball just nine times for 151 yards and two TDs. If he can keep that kind of output going through the rest of the season, he will have a legit shot at winning a second Heisman Trophy.
It's possible that Ingram could end up as a top five selection if he decides to enter the 2011 NFL Draft, particularly if he continues to carve up the competition. One possibility I've heard speculated is that the Patriots might use the first-round pick they acquired from Oakland to draft Ingram. My expectation is that the Patriots will use that pick (particularly if it's a high one as many have speculated it will be) to select a defensive lineman who would be a good fit in their 3-4 defense, but the addition of an elite running back like Ingram might be tempting for Bill Belicheck and company.
