Swinging and missing with Donovan Warren

National Football League
Draft King Analysis

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Yesterday marked the debut of the 2011 NFL Mock Draft on this site. Some other sites already have posted theirs, and typically I throw my hat into the ring with a extremely early projection myself (not that June isn't extremely early itself). But, to be sure, I wanted to give plenty of thought before I put my initial projection out there.

Circumstances beyond my control limited my capacity to properly put my full due diligence into vetting the first round projections that I had in the 2010 mock. The result? In my final projection, I had Michigan CB Donovan Warren as a late first round pick. But the draft came and went, all three days of it, and by the end Warren had gone undrafted.

Donovan Warren left Michigan early for the NFL. (Icon SMI)

For someone who prides himself on accurately analyzing information, I felt embarrassed. I've been doing mock drafts online dating back to the mock I did on LouPickney.com in 2003, and I've had Draft King going since the middle of 2003 building toward the 2004 draft. It's a lesson learned for me -- say no to outside commitments in the weeks/days leading up to the draft. Live and learn, I suppose. I didn't look closely enough at how Warren was trending down the stretch.

One problem for Warren is that he suffered a right ankle injury right before the combine, which is believed to have had a negative impact on his performance in Indianapolis. Todd McShay projected Warren at one point as a possible second-round pick; Mel Kiper thought he would fall into rounds three or four.

Warren is represented by agent Drew Rosenhaus, and coming out of Michigan it seemed that he had the profile and the man-to-man skills to be worthy of being drafted within the first 100 picks, if not as a stretch as a late first round selection. It didn't play out that way. Much like Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, Warren found himself an early departure for the NFL who went undrafted in the 2010 NFL Draft. Soon after, Warren signed a free agent contract with the New York Jets.

With the initial 2011 NFL mock draft on here I have the player at #1 who I had at one point as the *only* player on my then-unpublished 2011 page -- Alabama WR Julio Jones. I don't delve too much into the world of prep sports and recruiting; I don't have the budget, or inclination, to immerse myself too deeply into that world. But Jones is a player that I remember coming out of high school as a true impact player, and in my estimation he remains the top potential pro wide receiver prospect for 2011, should he opt for early entry into the NFL.

At this point it appears that Washington QB Jake Locker is the most likely candidate to be the first quarterback to be taken in 2011, but there is a long way to go between how things look now and how they will shape up by April 2011. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett is another popular projection based on his size and arm strength. Tomorrow on here I'll go through the various quarterbacks who appear, at this point, to be in the mix for teams looking for a quarterback for 2011 and beyond.

Lou Pickney's 2025 NFL Mock Draft