National Football League
Draft King Analysis
April 5, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
First off, something entirely not related to football -- congrats to Butler to making it to the NCAA men's basketball finals. If that three-pointer at the buzzer goes in, I say that shot goes down as the biggest in the history of college basketball. Instead, the rival of my alma mater (Evansville) lost to Duke, and then CBS followed that by terribly botching "One Shining Moment". Read this article for details on that.
Today the Rams cut last year's starting QB, Marc Bulger. Happy 33rd birthday, Marc! It would be a major surprise at this point for the Rams to not draft Sam Bradford with the #1 pick in the draft.
As promised, here is more from the mailbag. It's Dolphins-centric, kind of like how Lost focuses on one particular character in a given episode. Only I didn't plan it this way...
From: Jimmy DiTraglia
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Thu, Apr 1, 2010 at 9:57 AM
Subject: Dolphins
well Mr. Draft King, what do you see Miami doing in the 1st round. We definitely need a solid #1 WR, we're in the need for a FS, and a lot of people are wondering if we will pick up a RB. Ricky is solid but he's getting old now and Ronnie cant stay healthy. What do you think?
Lou: There are all kinds of options for Miami at the #12 spot, yet it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Bill Parcells trade down if the right offer comes along. If that doesn't happen, Miami has a variety of possibilities at that position.
Safety is a need for the Dolphins, but strong safety Eric Berry won't be on the board at #12 barring something completely unforeseen happening. It would be a bit of a stretch for Miami to draft Texas safety Earl Thomas at #12, but not an outright reach. Thomas played well at Texas, performed well at the combine, and appears set to be the second safety to go in the draft.
If C.J. Spiller is on the board at #12, Miami would be well advised to give him plenty of consideration. Ronnie Brown is a restricted free agent, but the Dolphins issued him a first-round tender -- meaning that if he signed anywhere else, and if Miami didn't match the offer, the team signing him would owe Miami a first-round pick. That's not going to happen, not for an injury-plagued running back who turns 29 this year. I like Brown, and I anticipate him doing good things for the Dolphins in 2010, but he's not worth what it would take for another team to land him.
As for Ricky Williams, he turns 33 next month and is under contract only through the end of this season. It would be fascinating to see what Miami would do with Williams, Brown, and Spiller, though if Spiller isn't available there are a number of capable running backs that could be considered in later rounds.
Linebacker is also an option for the Dolphins, particularly with the team losing Akin Ayodele and Joey Porter this off-season. I liked the idea of Alabama ILB Rolando McClain going to Miami before the start of free agency, but a playmaking OLB going to Miami at that spot actually makes much more sense. More on that in the next entry.
From: Christian Brittle
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Sat, Apr 3, 2010 at 2:52 PM
Subject: Latest mock draft...a couple of comments
First, let me say that I really enjoy the site. Second, I'm a Dolphins fan, so I thought I'd share my thoughts on your mock draft having the Fins taking Rolando McClain. Prior to the signing of Karlos Dansby, I would agree with you pick 100%. However, I think that since Miami signed Dansby, ILB has been downgraded on the priority list. Personally, I think the positions of need are as follows: 1) OLB, 2) NT, 3) FS, 4) WR, 5) ILB, 6) TE.
Here's my rationale -- With Joey Porter and Matt Roth gone and Jason Taylor likely no resigned the Dolphins' top three OLBs from the past two years have left the team. While I'm no expert on the 3-4 defense, I think a pass rushing OLBs are very important. Parcells has always valued pass rushing linebackers and drafted a lot in the first round. The players that are penciled in as starters, Charlie Anderson and Cameron Wake, likely would not start on most teams. This draft seems deep in pass rushing 3-4 OLBs, so they might wait until round 2, but I think this the top priority.
Nose tackle isn't in much better shape. Last year's starter, Jason Ferguson, is old (36) and out for the first eight games of the season (suspended) and Paul Soliai was average at best. Once again, NT is a very important position in the 3-4.
Last year's free safety starter, Gibril Wilson, was released and the team only has second year players to fill the position. While they did pretty well, this could be a position needing an upgrade.
Wide receiver is a position with many #2/possesion receivers, but lacks a #1 receiver. If Dez Bryant is there at #12, they might be tempted to pull the trigger.
Inside linebackers are Karlos Dansby and Channing Crowder -- Dansby has demonstrated that he's a playmaker and Crowder is very solid, especially against the run. Some depth is needed, but the starters are set.
McClain might be selected as the best value on the board, but as a position of need I think ILB is fairly down on the team's list of needs. As a betting man, I would say that the Dolphins hope that they can trade down into the late teens/early twenties are gain more 2nd and 3rd round draft picks. I could see this happening if Jimmy Clausen slipped to #12. Sorry for the long e-mail, I appreciate you taking the time to read it.
Lou: Point taken on Dansby and Crowder at ILB. I had wondered if Crowder would be ready for 2010 after suffering what was feared to be a Lisfranc injury to his right foot, but the talk now is that Crowder should be healthy for 2010, making the team drafting McClain less likely to happen. The next draft update should reflect a change for the Dolphins at the #12 spot.
As for Dez Bryant, him going to the Dolphins is a possibility, but I'm not sure if he fits the template for what Bill Parcells would be going for in that spot. We shall see, and Bryant still appears to be the top prospect in the upcoming draft, but at this point I'd think that Miami would be more likely to go with an OLB/DE to play outside linebacker over Bryant.
