After the initial land rush
National Football League
Draft King Analysis
March 8, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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Free agency is in full swing in the NFL, and as usual some of the big-name guys signed new contracts on the very first day that they were on the open market. Unfortunately for me, my schedule didn't allow me to create a post-combine 2010 NFL Mock Draft update until Friday, and I literally had to double-back and triple-back at times to adjust for teams filling needs via free agency and trades. When the Giants signed Antrel Rolle, I had to redo their pick. When Baltimore traded for Anquan Boldin, I had to remove Arrelious Benn going to the Ravens in my mock.
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Antrel Rolle has signed with the Giants. (Icon SMI)
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On the upside, free agency gives NFL fans something to help with the withdrawl for the sport that sets in after the Super Bowl. From here it's onto the draft, then off-season workouts ahead of training camp. Then it's the pre-season, when pro football fans finally get to see some gridiron action for the first time in several months.
My buddy Gary Graham, a loyal Raiders fan, told me that he suspects that Oakland will draft Maryland OT Bruce Campbell at #8 overall, based in part because of Campbell's impressive 4.83 40 time. But it's not as if Campbell blew everyone else away; Trent Williams was just five hundreds of a second slower than Campbell. Davis likes players with freakish size and speed, though the 40 time of an offensive lineman isn't nearly as important as it is for players at other positions. I think it's more likely that Davis would use the #8 pick on a defensive end with impressive measureables (such as Jason Pierre-Paul or Carlos Dunlap) than an offensive lineman.
Keep in mind, as always with this, it's not what I think a given team *should* do, but instead what I anticipate is the most likely thing that they *will* do. The distinction is subtle sometimes, but it's an important one to keep in mind.
The land rush for top-tier free agents may have passed at this point, but the second wave of signings can often be an opportunity for teams to fill need positions at a fraction of the price that other bigger-name players might command. Moreover, with the final year of the NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement limiting the unrestricted free agent field to those with six or more years of NFL service, there are fewer young players out there available on the open market.
Most GMs aren't "marks" for big names (such as how Daniel Snyder was early in his tenure as owner of the Washington Redskins), and with the reality of age and wear-and-tear eroding the skills of players who have been in the NFL long enough to earn unrestricted free agent status, expect for teams to look for less-expensive ways of filling their roster... even without a salary cap in place for the 2010 season.
Up next are the pro days that will be held by various universities across the United States. For the big-name guys who passed on combine workouts, the pro day will be an opportunity for them to show what they can (or cannot) do on the field. Most players are in a relatively set projection range at this point, though an eye-opening workout could help more obscure players catch the attention of a team (or teams) looking for a great late-round steal.
