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Draft King Analysis

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Today's NFL action provided plenty of surprises, excitement, and stunning moments. Just another week in the NFL, I know, but the added pressure of playoff positioning and/or qualification hanging in the balance for at least one of the teams in most of today's contests provided extra tension to an already solid slate of games.

Circumstances allowed me to be a last-second fill-in to go to today's Texans/Titans game. Technically the game had potential playoff implications for both teams, albeit slim with both squads having missed out on multiple opportunities to be in the playoff hunt beyond the longest of odds. Memories of week one, when Tennessee crushed Oakland and Houston humbled Indianapolis, were far gone from the crowd at LP Field today.

The game was yet another sellout for the Titans (as every game they've ever had at LP Field has been), though the attendance was rather tepid compared with even the 12/9 Thursday night game in Nashville where the Titans lost to the Colts. They had some concession stands closed that are normally open, and in a huge shocker there wasn't a line at the ATM near section 310. Usually the line for it runs ridiculously long, and I thought at first that the machine was out of order. But that wasn't the case, and my brother Matt was able to withdraw some cash before we hit the concession stand.

Matt shared a fascinating story with me at the game about the reach of this website. His girlfriend Jenica has a best friend back home in Ohio, and her best friend's husband, Ken Michaels, is a hardcore Steelers fan. During a visit up there last month Matt talked with Ken about the NFL Draft and mentioned in passing that I own and operate this site (not in those exact words I'm sure). As Matt told it, Ken was incredulous (in disbelief) -- he told Matt that he visits Draft King every day. So, Ken, my thanks go out to you for being a regular reader of the site.

The Titans won 31-17, and they technically are still alive for a playoff spot despite being 6-8. That's not going to happen barring something truly shocking, but for NFL Draft observers the Titans are small fish. The teams with the worst records are the ones worth watching closely, as how they finish the season could have a major impact on the top of the 2011 NFL Draft order. Here's a look at how the dust has settled for the teams with the worst records after today's action. Note that I could include 5-9 teams, but the 5-9 49ers still have a chance to win the NFC West. That's not a joke.

Carolina (2-12): Their home win over Arizona today gave the Panthers just their second win for the 2010 season. The final two games are brutal: at Pittsburgh and at Atlanta. Good luck in those games, fellas. If Carolina loses both games and/or loses one and ties the other, they will have the first pick in the 2011 Draft. And I still think at this point that they would take a defensive end over any QB at the #1 spot, barring the team bringing in a new general manager, and even then the Panthers must address their defensive end position for 2011.

Denver (3-11): Tim Tebow played well in his first NFL start, albeit not well enough to lead his team to victory at Oakland. Home games against Houston and San Diego will conclude the 2010 Broncos season. Neither is a gimme, particularly San Diego, though catching Carolina will be difficult at this point even if the Broncos lose out. Might the Broncos consider drafting Alabama DE Marcell Dareus (should he leave school early) with their high first round pick? I suspect that it's a distinct possibility.

One note pertaining to the Broncos from the Texans/Titans game came from my friend Mike, who is a Colts fan and was a neutral observer at the game. I explained to him my difficulty in growing up cheering for the Colts and then having the Titans move to my hometown of Nashville... and then the NFL putting them in the same division. I'm not sure he believed me at first, not until I explained in detail the ribbing I took during my freshman year of high school in the fall of 1991 when the Colts went 1-15 and the frustration I felt when the Colts lost the 1995 AFC Championship Game to the Steelers in a game where Indianapolis had multiple chances to win.

I mention him because the topic of Knowshon Moreno came up, and Mike described him as the softest high-profile running back to come out of the SEC in 15 years. I don't necessarily agree, and Moreno has performed well in averaging 4.3 yards per carry this year, but it's an interesting point to contemplate.

Cincinnati (3-11): The Bengals are home against San Diego next week and then finish the Marvin Lewis era (in all likelihood) at Baltimore, which puts Cincy in a possible position to finish 3-13. 37-year-old Terrell Owens is out for the year with a torn meniscus in his left knee, and he might have played in his final NFL game today. It's doubtful that Cincinnati will exercise their team option on Chad Ochocinco (who turns 33 next month) for 2011. Georgia WR A.J. Green would be a nice fit there, though there is also the issue of Carson Palmer, whose performance has declined since 2007 to the point where the Bengals may opt to cut him this off-season rather than pay him $11.5 million next season. Plenty of important decisions are looming for the Bengals, and what they choose to do will certainly impact things for teams drafting below them.

	Prince Amukamara is an elite senior corner. (Icon SMI)

Detroit (4-10): Injuries to QB Matthew Stafford and RB Jahvid Best have limited what might have otherwise been a stronger-than-expected 2010 season. Detroit finishes at Miami and then home against Minnesota, both of which are potentially winnable games. The Lions very well might end up drafting either LSU CB/PR Patrick Peterson (if he declares early) or Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara, though it's also possible that they will play themselves out of being in a position to draft either of them.

Buffalo (4-10): It's easy to forget this now if you're not in upstate New York, but at one point the Bills were 0-8 and appeared to be on track for the top pick in the 2011 Draft. The early-season move to jettison starting QB Trent Edwards outright off the team and replace him in the starting spot with Ryan Fitzpatrick, a journeyman out of Harvard who had starting experience with St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Buffalo, seemed like a desperation move. But, as history has proven time and time again, sometimes the learning curve for the quarterback position in the National Football League can be a long one, even for a Harvard graduate.

It was after their week six bye that the Bills began to turn things around, with back-to-back thrilling overtime games at Baltimore and Kansas City. Both ended in losses, but Fitzpatrick showed that he could perform extremely well at the quarterback position against elite defenses on the road. And as the Bills began to face competition that was less stiff, they finally began to post some wins. Seriously, look at what Buffalo was up against to begin 2010: MIA, @GB, @NE, NYJ, JAX, @BAL, @KC, CHI. The Miami loss came prior to Chad Pennington's season-ending injury; the other seven teams are all either bound for the playoffs or in the hunt for a playoff spot.

For Fitzpatrick, playing well enough to keep Buffalo out of the top spot or two was more than just winning for the sake of winning to prevent Andrew Luck from being a consideration -- he had to prove that he was capable of being a long-term possibility for the team at quarterback. He's due $2.8 million for 2011, the final year of his contract. He may have put Buffalo in a position to take a strong 3-4 front seven player, a strong need for the team since, as of this writing, the Bills are dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up a staggering 158.6 yards per game on the ground.

Arizona (4-10): Life after Kurt Warner has not been pleasant for Cardinals fans. The team finally gave up on Matt Leinart in the preseason, trying their luck at quarterback with Derek Anderson and Max Hall and eventually John Skelton, all with less than pleasant results.

The problems are widespread and go beyond just the QB position. Through week 15, the Cardinals are #30 in the running game and #31 in the passing game. The defense hasn't been much better, with the team #30 against the run and #23 against the pass. This is what happens when you lose Warner and Anquan Boldin and Antrel Rolle and Karlos Dansby all in one off-season. My current 2011 mock has Arizona drafting a QB, but they could fill any number of positions on the defensive front seven with their top pick and I wouldn't be surprised by it.

Lou Pickney's 2025 NFL Mock Draft