An examination of the teams likely to be picking high
National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 1, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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With just five games remaining in the 2010 NFL regular season, it's worth looking at the teams likely to draft near the top of the 2011 NFL Draft, who they face down the stretch, and what positions they need to fill.
Carolina Panthers (1-10)
Remaining opponents: @SEA, ATL, ARI, @PIT, @ATL
Likely first round targets: DE, WR
The Panthers have been decimated by injuries, and particularly at the quarterback position they have been hurting severely. But the team used its first pick in the 2010 Draft (a second rounder) on Jimmy Clausen, and even if Carolina has a shot at drafting Andrew Luck, it seems much more likely that the Panthers would go for a playmaking defensive end like Da'Quan Bowers, who has had a fantastic year at Clemson. It's also possible that the team might draft Georgia WR A.J. Green, though filling the need at defensive end (created by the loss of Julius Peppers via free agency to the Bears) would likely be the team's top priority.
Looking at the stretch run, playing at Seattle and Pittsburgh will both be very tough, and a home-and-home series with Atlanta doesn't look promising. The most likely game for Carolina to win is in Week 15 home against Arizona, but it's not impossible to think that the Panthers could finish 1-15, which would assure them the top pick in the 2011 Draft.
Detroit Lions (2-9)
Remaining opponents: CHI, GB, @TB, @MIA, MIN
Likely first round targets: CB, DE
The Lions were expected to perform stronger this season than they have, but with injuries keeping QB Matthew Stafford and RB Jahvid Best (and others) mostly on the sideline in 2010, the team has another year to add more young talent to build a base. The damage done during the Matt Millen 2001-2008 era can't be fixed overnight.
The stretch run for Detroit doesn't look particularly easy, with home matchups with strong division rivals Chicago and Green Bay before back-to-back road trips to Florida (not the worst place to go in December especially compared with cold Detroit) to face Tampa Bay and Miami before finishing up 2010 at home against Minnesota.
Detroit needs an elite corner, and they should be in a position to draft either LSU CB Patrick Peterson or Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara. It's rare that a cornerback goes in the top five of the NFL Draft; the last to do so was Terrence Newman to Dallas in 2003. For top three it's even rarer, dating back to Seattle drafting CB Shawn Springs #3 overall in 1997. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, only one cornerback has gone in the top two: Eric Turner at #2 to Atlanta in 1991.
In the event that Detroit isn't able to draft Peterson (who is a junior) or Amukamara, they could look to add a top-flight defensive lineman prospect. They signed Kyle Vanden Bosch this past off-season, and he is a solid player, but adding a young elite talent to line up at the other DE position could be a tempting backup plan.
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Marcell Dareus is an elite 3-4 DE prospect. (Icon SMI)
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Buffalo Bills (2-9)
Remaining opponents: @MIN, CLE, @MIA, NE, @NYJ
Likely first round targets: QB, DE, OL
Buffalo has had inspired play at quarterback by Ryan Fitzpatrick, who began the year backing up Trent Edwards. Edwards struggled and ended up being cut from the team, and Fitzpatrick has moved into the starting spot and played admirably under less-than-ideal conditions. In a very interesting situation, Fitzpatrick has an opportunity to guide his team to enough wins in their final five games of the season to not be in a position to draft Andrew Luck. Marcell Dareus is an NFL-ready 3-4 DE, and though there are some who think Dareus projects better as a 4-3 DT, there is little doubt that he could provide an instant benefit to Buffalo's defense.
As for the offensive line, there isn't a bona fide breakout offensive tackle prospect for 2011, which is too bad for Buffalo since they could really use an elite OT. But particularly if the team is able to succeed down the stretch (and thus draft lower in April), it's possible that they could either stretch or trade down slightly and draft the offensive tackle they like the best.
Note: some might point out that the Bills used the #11 overall pick in 2009 on Penn State DE Aaron Maybin, but Maybin plays OLB in their 3-4 defense, a distinctly different role than Dareus would be asked to play there.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)
Remaining opponents: NO, @PIT, CLE, SD, @BAL
Likely first round targets: WR, RB, QB
The Bengals have a tough final five game run, which means that they most likely won't be able to use their first-round pick on what might be their biggest need spot, running back, in round one without trading down or stretching considerably to draft Alabama RB Mark Ingram if he declares early for the NFL. Cedric Benson has had a disappointing 2010 season, and contract extension talks between him and the Bengals have fallen apart according to published reports.
Cincinnati likely will clean house in the coaching staff this off-season, which makes predicting their next moves tricky. Wide receiver might seem odd to see listed as a need for a team with Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. But Ochocinco turns 33 next month and Cincinnati has a team option for a $6 million base deal for 2011, and if the Bengals opt not to pick it up then Ochocinco hits the market. Owens turns 37 in less than one week, and he is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in 2011.
Georgia WR A.J. Green would have to receive serious consideration should the Bengals have an opportunity to draft him. It's possible that the Bengals could jettison Carson Palmer and make a run at Andrew Luck if he's available, though that might be extreme even for new management. Palmer hasn't been the same since the injury he sustained in the playoffs in January 2006, but he is a veteran force on a team that will need solid leadership to bounce back in 2011.
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Karlos Dansby joined the Miami Dolphins for the 2010 NFL season. (Icon SMI)
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Arizona Cardinals (3-8)
Remaining opponents: STL, DEN, @CAR, DAL, @SF
Likely first round targets: QB, OLB
The failure of Matt Leinart to develop into a long-term solution at QB for the Cardinals finally caught up with the team in 2010, with Kurt Warner's retirement leaving them with the likes of Derek Anderson and Max Hall as their primary quarterback options. Losing key players like OLB Karlos Dansby and FS Antrel Rolle didn't help either, and now the team has to look to the draft to better fill some of those positions.
Andrew Luck would be an ideal fit in Arizona. But if he's not available for the Cardinals, going with a player like Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett is a viable option if he is available. Also, some of the elite 4-3 DE prospects could appeal as converted 3-4 OLBs for the team.
It's remarkable how poor Arizona is doing across the board. Through Week 12, the team is #30 in rushing, #31 in passing, #25 in run defense, and #31 in pass defense. Any way you slice it, that is awful.
Dallas Cowboys (3-8)
Remaining opponents: @IND, PHI, WAS, @ARI, @PHI
Likely first round targets: OT, ILB, DE, SS
Dallas has shown improvement with the replacement of the ineffective Wade Phillips at head coach with Jason Garrett. But this team needs help at several key spots, and this is a draft that isn't loaded at the top at many of their major need positions.
There are some who think that LSU CB/KR Patrick Peterson could not only play safety in the NFL but actually play the position better than cornerback. That remains to be seen, but Peterson would be an interesting addition to the Cowboys secondary. Marcell Dareus could be a nice pickup as a 3-4 DE, and this situation will require Dallas to make some careful evaluations once it knows its draft position to determine who would be the best fit for their roster for 2011.
Denver Broncos (3-8)
Remaining opponents: @KC, @ARI, @OAK, HOU, SD
Likely first round targets: CB, DE, OLB
Current head coach Josh McDaniels has taken quite a bit of criticism for Denver's lackluster performance this season, particularly following his debut 2009 campaign where the Broncos raced out to a 6-0 start, only to fall into a tailspin and end the year at 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
The contract the team has with Champ Bailey expires at the end of the season, and while the franchise tag is likely going to be an option, the reality is that Bailey is 32 years old, just 26 months and one day younger than McDaniels, for what that's worth. Any NFL player on the wrong side of 30 will face scrutiny, and it will be interesting to see how Denver handles Bailey's pending potential free agency. He has been a solid shutdown corner who proved to be worth every bit of what Denver gave up to acquire him in early 2004.
Even if Denver keeps Bailey, defense remains a concern for a team that is presently #20 against the pass and #30 against the run. Like many of the 3-4 teams that are likely to be drafting near the top of the 2011 NFL Draft, Alabama DE Marcell Dareus is likely a tempting option, though adding depth at outside linebacker may also be a consideration for the team.
