Looking at promising underclassmen prospects
National Football League
Draft King Analysis
November 29, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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In looking ahead to the 2011 NFL Draft, it's possible that the first eight players picked (if not more) could be underclassmen. This has created an interesting situation for those projecting what might happen in the draft, since there is no guarantee that any of the top prospects with remaining college eligibility will return to the NCAA ranks for 2011. I'd think that most with a realistic shot at being a top ten pick would and should jump, particularly with how diligent the NCAA's Agent, Gambling and Amateurism Activities division has been at investigating agent/student connections and other alleged wrongdoings.
At the same time, it is looking more and more like there might be a labor stoppage of some sort in the NFL in 2011. This might encourage some top-tier players on the fence to stay in college for another year, though there will for sure be a draft in 2011. The last time there was a labor stoppage in the NFL was in 1987; I remember it vividly (and the two weeks of play with replacement players), but that happened before almost all of the prospects for the 2011 Draft were even born. There is no modern equivalent, not in the 1993-present free agency era.
The Rams guaranteed QB Sam Bradford $50 million (along with his base salary) before he took a single NFL snap, and while he is looking like he is worth it at this point, the rookie pay scale has been a runaway train at the top over the past few years. Owners want to get those top draft pick salaries under control, and veterans who have little to gain by rookies landing lofty contracts will gladly agree for a rookie cap in exchange for something that benefits them more.
Keep all of that in mind when you look over the top draft prospects with remaining NCAA eligibility. And remember that any list you see of top seniors that you are missing out on the bulk of the players who will in all likelihood make up the top ten of the 2011 NFL Draft class. Here's a look at the top underclassman prospects at this point:
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: I've been bullish on Luck for some time, impressed by his strong arm, his leadership skills, and his tremendous accuracy. If the team with the top pick needs a quarterback and Luck declares for the draft, it would be surprising if he didn't go #1. Where Luck might have trouble is if teams with pricey QBs already on their roster (e.g. Cincinnati, Detroit) end up with top picks, where they'd be likely to look at other need spots than QB.
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Andrew Luck will likely be the first QB drafted in 2011 if he leaves Stanford for the NFL after this season. (Icon SMI)
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Patrick Peterson, CB/KR, LSU: One of the few elite players in the southeast to avoid the shadow of the AGA, Peterson is a great playmaker at corner and doubles as an outstanding kick returner. Peterson has been in a neck-and-neck battle among draft pundits with Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara as the top defensive back prospect, and it will likely ultimately come down to the evaluation of whichever team picks the first corner as to which player fits their team better.
A.J. Green, WR, Georgia: Green is the near-consensus top wide receiver in college football. He missed the first four games of 2010 because of selling the jersey he wore in the 2009 Independence Bowl for $1,000, and it would be stunning if he decided to go back to Georgia for the 2011 season. Had the Bulldogs not held on to beat Georgia Tech (and thus become bowl eligible) I suspect that Green might have begun making overtures to the NFL. But that will have to wait just a little bit longer.
Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina: Quinn, along with teammate DT Marvin Austin, haven't played a snap of football in 2010. But Quinn remains a talented NFL prospect, and despite his connection with the John Blake/Gary Wichard scandal at UNC, he is an elite athlete with the capacity to make an immediate impact in the NFL.
Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson: Bowers could end up being the first player picked in the 2011 NFL Draft. He received rave reviews coming out of high school, started off slow during his first two seasons at Clemson, and then absolutely exploded in 2010 with tremendous output, particularly in the "tackle for loss" category. He might benefit from another year at Clemson, but it's doubtful that he could boost his stock any higher by returning for his senior season -- and there are plenty of defensive ends who have cost themselves millions of dollars by going back to school and having their draft status fall as a result.
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn: Fairley has shot up draft boards across the line with his tremendous ability to pressure/sack the quarterback from the tackle position, a rare ability that will endear him to many NFL teams. He forced two sacks against Alabama, one of which included a forced fumble which he recovered when the Crimson Tide were inside the Auburn 10-yard-line. Fairley finished the regular season with an even twenty tackles for loss, an unreal number for a DT.
Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas: I have been ahead of the curve in my support for Mallett as an NFL prospect, and it has pleased me greatly to see some higher-profile NFL Draft experts move him ahead of the likes of Jake Locker to where he belongs, in the conversation for the #2 QB prospect behind Luck. His cannon arm has never been a secret, but he has discovered a touch with his throws that he did not have in the past. Mallett was draft-eligible last year and returned to Arkansas, which was a wise move. He doesn't need to prove anything else about his ability, and he looks like a solid NFL prospect who could sneak into the top ten.
