Hype for Ndamukong Suh

National Football League
Draft King Analysis

Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.

It's down to the final four now in the NFL: Jets/Colts and Vikings/Saints, with the winners to meet in Super Bowl XLIV in Miami. The losers of the respective conference championship games will end up with the #29 and #30 spots in the draft, which is a change from years past where playoff results only impacted the two participants in the Super Bowl. If this was 2007, the Jets would be drafting ahead of the Chargers if they didn't beat the Colts.

As for the Jets, this article gives a fascinating look at what happened behind-the-scenes last year when the Jets traded up to the #5 spot to draft USC QB Mark Sanchez. Note how the Rams played hardball with their selection at the #2 overall spot, a point that could become relevant as trade talks pertain to this upcoming draft.

Jimmy Clausen may be the first QB drafted in 2010. (Icon SMI)

The NFL has issued an explanation of some of the particulars for the forthcoming uncapped NFL season. Worth noting: there will be a 2011 NFL Draft with or without a CBA, players won't be eligible for unrestricted free agency unless they have six years of NFL experience accrued, and teams will be able to use both a franchise tag *and* a transition tag on their upcoming free agents. It will be very interesting to see if any "poison pills" are used by teams signing transition players, like the battle between Seattle and Minnesota a few years ago involving Steve Hutchinson.

Also, there are ramifications for free agency related to the final eight teams in the playoffs. The specifics are a bit complicated, but the article does a good job of explaining it -- better than I'd do trying to explain it here in my own words.

It's mailbag time, and the hot topic is the St. Louis Rams and Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh.

From: Austin Laroche (via Twitter)
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Jan 15, 2010 at 10:45 AM
Subject: N/A

can't wait for the new mock. What will it take to change your mind on Clausen at 1?

From: Paul Garrett
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Jan 20, 2010 at 12:53 PM
Subject: Rams, Quarterbacks, and Suh

I have been wondering about your insistence on picking a QB for the Rams in your mocks. Is that an indication that you feel the Rams want to draft a QB that badly, or that you don't think Suh is as dominating and deserving of the #1 pick as others do? With the likelihood of a salary cap being a non-issue, and money being the only reason for the Rams not to take a yet another DLineman, if none of the QBs stand out through the offseason, why wouldn't they just take the best player in the draft who would instantly make their defense better than half the NFL?

As a follow-up to that, how much better is Suh than McCoy? How much stock can you put into a DT having 85 tackles, 52 solo, and how much do McCoy's above-average production mean for his overall skillset?

Thanks in advance for any answers =)

Lou: A person I'm close with, who is a big-time college football fan, told me that he doesn't think that Jimmy Clausen has the "coming through in the clutch" factor that most great quarterbacks have. He cited Clausen's failure to lead Notre Dame to victory against Navy and USC in particularly as his reason why he thinks Clausen shouldn't go #1. He doubts Clausen's killer instinct.

If the Rams stick at #1, it appears at this point that the team will take either a quarterback (Clausen or Sam Bradford) or Suh. Right now many pundits and fans alike feel that Suh is the top prospect in the draft, citing what they perceive as a weaker quarterback class compared with other years as reason for the Rams to not take a QB there but instead go with Suh. And, to be sure, that's a distinct possibility.

The man calling the shots in St. Louis is Billy Devaney, who became the Rams' general manager following the 2008 season. Last month, according to Peter King, Devaney said of Suh: "If you ask me now — ask anybody — who the best player is, you'd probably have to say it's him." But he qualified that statement by saying that the team didn't yet have a draft board put together and that there were underclassmen who had not yet declared who might impact his decision-making process.

I'm leaning toward changing my mock on here to have Suh in the top position. The Rams might be able to land a wealth of draft picks from either the Lions or Buccaneers (the two teams drafting below them), though ultimately what the Rams do depends on how they evaluate the available talent. If Devaney and company like Suh as much as some others do, they might stick at #1, draft Suh there, and then either trade up into the later part of round one to get a QB or choose from the best of who's around at #33.

Comparing Suh to Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy isn't fair to McCoy; the consensus seems to be that Suh is far and away the top defensive prospect to come along not only this year, but perhaps in the past ten years. That is high praise, but Suh is a phenomenal playmaker with rare agility and athleticism for a player of his size (6'4" 305). McCoy is almost the same size (6'4" 295), and while McCoy put up gaudy stats in 2009, there's no way (barring injury or arrest) that McCoy would go ahead of Suh.

Don't shed too many tears for McCoy, as the Detroit Lions have a great need at defensive tackle and could easily end up snapping him up with the second pick in the draft. Obviously the Lions would prefer Suh, but a player like McCoy could have an instant impact on Detroit's fortunes on the gridiron.

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