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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
September 3, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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I'll be at the Titans/Packers pre-season game tonight at LP Field in Nashville. The final pre-season game is generally the worst of the lot, with starters receiving very little playing time (lest they get hurt in a glorified scrimmage) and guys on the bubble going all-out to earn their spot on the opening day roster. Teams have to cut from 75 to 53 by Saturday, and there are many guys who are likely playing their final game in the NFL in games across America tonight.
For college football fans, tonight marks the beginning of the FBS/I-A season with five games, including an intriguing nightcap matchup with Oregon at Boise State. One year ago the Broncos won in Eugene, and Oregon would certainly like to gain revenge on the blue turf in Boise.
There is a varied landscape in college football this year, with a few elite teams really standing out at this point. It has the look of a four team race with Florida and Alabama out of the SEC and Texas and Oklahoma out of the Big XII looking like the big players. USC is in the mix but is a notch below without a proven QB (with Mark Sanchez it would have been different), and Penn State has an outstanding defense and will likely be battling with a strong Ohio State team for the Big Ten title.
But, if things go as expected, the Red River Shootout and the SEC Title game could serve as de facto playoff games ahead of the BCS Title game determining the "on paper" national champion. Of course, Virginia Tech could beat Alabama this weekend and throw that theory off course, and I know some who think that Alabama won't even win the SEC West, thinking that Ole Miss will take that title. We shall see.
It's interesting to see that ESPN has allowed Mel Kiper to post his "big board" on their website (in the Insider section) with his projections looking toward 2010 that include underclassmen (and not just redshirt juniors). In the past, ESPN (along with other major network websites) has generally avoided listing underclassmen in mock drafts during the season. The reasons I'm sure are varied, but whatever the reason that has created a gap for websites like this one to portray a more accurate view of what might happen in the following year's draft.
The internet is allowing people across the world to communicate with the general public in ways never before possible, and in particular NFL stars are utilizing it this year (via Twitter, Ustream, etc.) in new ways. Perhaps the most impressive example out there is what Steven Jackson and his handlers have created with a four episode series focusing on Jackson and his career. The newest one that just went up today, Father and Son, in particular is interesting to me as it documents what happened with Jackson in the 2004 Draft (at about the 6:00 mark), where Jackson slipped all the way to St. Louis at #24.
I disagree with the claim made that Jackson was "supposed to be a top five pick" since there wasn't an overwhelming need at RB among most of the teams picking in those top spots, particularly with such a strong QB class. But I found it very insightful to see what Jackson thought when Dallas traded down from #22 instead of drafting him. The Cowboys were his father's favorite team and also had a running back need. But Jackson apparently wasn't what Bill Parcells was looking for, and instead Buffalo moved up to #22 to draft QB J.P. Losman and Dallas ended up snagging Notre Dame RB Julius Jones in round two.
Note: 2004 was the first full-cycle year for Draft King, and I caught some grief over projecting Jackson falling out of the top ten. But ultimately I was right about that, which is something I've kept in mind when being taken to task in more recent years about a given player's positioning in the draft.
Enough of the past: the future is now with the start of the FBS/I-A season and the end of the NFL pre-season. Watch and enjoy.
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