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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
July 7, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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The sordid story of the murder of Steve McNair continues to dominate news coverage here in the greater Nashville area. The public memorial service for McNair is slated for tonight in Whites Creek (located about 10 miles or so north of Nashville), and I anticipate that there will be a strong turnout from the community. As I wrote on here two days ago, McNair has been forever cemented as a sports icon in this city. May his family and friends be able to find peace once they go through the grieving process.
July is here, and anticipation is growing for the upcoming college (and pro) football season. If you don't mind a little bit of profanity to go with your sports talk (and I don't, but I know others out there might), then check out this preview of the anticipated favorites in the FBS (formerly I-A) division of college football.
I probably won't be redoing my 2010 NFL Mock Draft for a few weeks, so now might be a good time to go through and look at who I have projected as first round picks and how likely they are to remain in the first round mix. Asterisks indicate players who will have college eligibility remaining beyond the 2009 season. This is part one with picks #1-16; look for #17-32 on here later this week.
1. Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma (6'5" 308 lbs.)
Williams was seen as a borderline first round pick for the 2009 Draft, but he opted to return to OU for his senior season. Maintaining the top offensive tackle spot will be a challenge for Williams, particularly with guys like LSU's Ciron Black and Oklahoma State's Russell Okung fighting for the spot. Typically, pre-season offensive tackle prospects tend to stay high up in the mix (barring injury), and Williams should be able to be right up toward the top of the draft if he can stay healthy and maintain the strong presence he showed in 2008 for the Sooners.
2. Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida * (6'6" 290 lbs.)
The Gators are absolutely loaded going into the 2009 season, but Dunlap at this point is the most likely of the players on UF's roster to be taken in the 2010 Draft -- if he elects to enter it.
Dunlap suffered an abdominal strain during spring practice, but from all indications he should be back to full health coming into the 2009 season. He runs a reported 4.65 40, which is amazing considering his size. Comparison have been made of him to former #1 overall pick Mario Williams (who at 6'6" 285 is similarly sized). Dunlap recorded nine sacks in 2008, and if he can put up similar numbers in 2009 and then opts to leave school early for the NFL, he could easily be a top five pick... if not a top overall selection.
(Note: it's times like this that not being affiliated with a major broadcast network is refreshing for me as a draft analyst -- I don't have to ignore guys like Dunlap, Eric Berry, etc. just because they're not seniors or redshirt juniors).
3. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma * (6'4" 220 lbs.)
Bradford has been nothing short of brilliant in his tenure with the Oklahoma Sooners. If he goes pro after the season, it will likely be him vs. Texas QB Colt McCoy in a battle for the top QB to go in the draft. I have him at #3 because of team needs in my current mock in the top two spots, but Bradford going #1 overall wouldn't surprise me in the least.
4. Eric Berry, SS, Tennessee * (5'11" 205 lbs.)
If he goes pro after 2009, Berry is almost for sure going to be the top strong safety drafted and has the edge (at least for now) over USC's Taylor Mays as far as the likelihood of being the top defensive back drafted in 2010. He plays the position about as well as it can be played, combining his ball-hawking skills with his ability to lay crushing form tackles on anyone.
5. Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU (6'3" 210 lbs.)
Unlike the rest of the top five, LaFell needs to show improvement to earn such a high draft position. In particular, he will need to show that he can catch the ball consistently. He's not a speedster, but he has a big frame and, at this point, looks as poised as anyone to be the top receiver drafted in 2010 -- but he's hardly a lock for that as of now.
|  | Colt McCoy is a top-tier NFL QB prospect. (Icon SMI)
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6. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas (6'3" 215 lbs.)
McCoy is all but a lock to be a first-round pick, and he could end up being the top quarterback drafted in 2010 -- regardless on if Bradford leaves Oklahoma with a year of eligibility remaining for the riches of the NFL. McCoy has proven he can play under pressure, and while I have Bradford ahead of him at this point, it's very close between the two as of now.
7. Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama (6'4" 365 lbs.)
One of the best true 3-4 nose tackle prospects to come along in years, Cody played well in his first year of big-time college football at Alabama in 2008, and with another strong season he could end up as a top five pick. With the 3-4 defense becoming more and more popular in the NFL, a player with Cody's rare size and ability for the position will be in high demand for teams looking for a natural to plug the middle.
8. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma (6'6" 260 lbs.)
Gresham is an impressive athlete who lkely would have been the first tight end to go in the 2009 Draft had he opted to take that route. Instead he is returning to OU for his senior season, and with another strong year he has a chance to be drafted potentially before not only any other tight end, but possibly before any *wide receiver* in the 2010 Draft. He's that good.
9. Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State (6'6" 305 lbs.)
Don't be fooled with Williams listed in the #1 spot and Okung at #9 -- there isn't a lot of room between the two as NFL prospects go at this point. Williams will get more attention than Okung based on OU likely to receive so much of the spotlight this fall, but as Baylor's Jason Smith showed in the 2009 Draft, that is immaterial relative to the NFL Draft. If Okung stays healthy, he should be a first round pick and almost for sure be one of the first three offensive tackles drafted.
10. Taylor Mays, FS, USC (6'3" 230 lbs.)
As impressive as Eric Berry is, Mays is a very special athlete himself who is a tremendous playmaker and tackler. On the surface, two safeties going in the top ten might seem strange, but Berry and Mays are no ordinary safeties. Despite his size, Mays runs an estimated 4.5 40 and has great closing speed. He has a chance to really shine on USC's defense this year with the Trojans losing a number of high-profile defenders to the NFL after this past season.
11. Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma * (6'4" 295 lbs.)
It's too early to make a definitive statement about who is the better NFL prospect between McCoy and Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh (more on him in a bit). McCoy is a very speedy player despite being just shy of 300 pounds, as he proved with 6.5 sacks in 2008. Defensive tackle can be a boom-or-bust position, but with McCoy having Warren Sapp like ability to get to the quarterback, he should receive plenty of attention in the 2010 Draft if he opts for early entry into the NFL.
12. Ciron Black, OT, LSU (6'5" 325 lbs.)
There are a variety of opinions out there on Black, from some who see him as the top offensive tackle prospect in the draft to others who think he won't be a first-round selection. He is widely regarded as a strong character guy, and it will be up to Black to show that his on-the-field skills warrant him being in the mix among the top offensive tackles in the 2010 Draft.
13. Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati (6'1" 180 lbs.)
Gilyard's draft stock benefits from his great speed (estimated 4.45 40 time) and strong kick return skills. Gilyard came on strong in 2008, and if he can post similar numbers (81 receptions, 1,276 receiving yards and 11 TDs) this fall, he could find himself in the first round mix. This might be slightly high for him, but where he goes depends not only on how he performs but also on how the competition at wideout does this fall.
|  | Can LeGarrette Blount duplicate his 2008 success? (Icon SMI)
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14. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska (6'4" 302 lbs.)
Much like Gerald McCoy, Suh had a tremendous 2008 season as both a run-stopper and a pass-rush threat from the defensive tackle position. Suh made 76 tackles and had 7.5 sacks. Stock for defensive tackles can fluctuate dramatically from July to the end of the season (I'd say moreso than many other defensive positions). But, particularly if McCoy returns to Oklahoma for 2010 and if Suh can produce similar results to what he showed in 2008, Suh would likely end up as the top 4-3 DT prospect.
15. Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa * (6'6" 312 lbs.)
A player who has hybrid possibilities at both guard and tackle, Bulaga is huge but also very fast for his size (with sub 5.0 40 speed, and even one listing of him at 4.79 in the 40). Williams and Okung and Black are ahead of him at this point, but a strong showing in the Big Ten this year for Bulaga could put him in a good position to be in the mix among first round offensive tackles.
16. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon (6'2" 240 lbs.)
Blount has been a very interesting player to watch this off-season. He was suspended indefinitely in February by the Ducks for missing team meetings and workouts, but in March he was reinstated to the team.
There aren't many sure-fire running back prospects for the 2010 Draft yet (but give it time, plenty of guys will break out as they do every year), but at this point Blount has an opportunity to be a first-round selection if he can repeat his production from last year. Blount had a breakout season in 2008, with an impressive 7.3 YPC and a whopping 17 rushing TDs, and that was done while sharing time with senior RB Jeremiah Johnson.
Blount's huge size might make some think of Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart (who had a tremendous rookie year with Carolina in 2008), but Blount lacks the elite speed that Stewart had to go with a big frame. But, with teams in the NFL looking more and more for a 1-2 punch at RB (a trend that was accelerated when the Colts and Bears both featured dual-RB attacks in making it to Super Bowl XLI). If Blount has a strong senior year, he will have every opportunity to end up as a first-round pick in the 2010 Draft.
Tomorrow: a look at the players in the bottom half of my first-round 2010 NFL Mock Draft.
NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
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