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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
July 20, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
This is an interesting time of the year for NFL fans. Starved for live game action since the Super Bowl in February, every morsel of semi-important news related to the league becomes magnified at this point of the year. Brett Favre's slow roll to Minnesota seemingly draws headlines on a daily basis. Fans look to Twitter, mixing their information intake from blurbs from the likes of Adam Schefter and Peter King to reading ridiculous posts from Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco (who wrote that the deaths of Michael Jackson and Farrah Fawcett were "as sad as 9/11" to him).
Training camps start very soon, and not too long after that we'll have NFL pre-season football. Note: there are some in power in the NFL who are pushing to cut the pre-season to 2 or 3 games and extend the regular season to 17 or 18 games. I don't care for this idea at all; they don't care what I think.
Meanwhile, a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is needed to avoid an uncapped year in 2010 and a potential labor stoppage beyond that point. As PFT has pointed out in recent months, some players who normally would be in a position to become unrestricted free agents in 2010, such as Cowboys OLB DeMarcus Ware, instead will be restricted free agents due to the setup of the uncapped year.
What's the difference between being a restricted free agent and an unrestricted free agent? No clearer example comes to mind than the comparison of Browns QB Derek Anderson with Chiefs QB Matt Cassel.
In February 2008, Anderson was slated to become a restricted free agent coming off of a breakout 2007 season with the Browns. With Cleveland having the ability to match any offers for him (or receive compensatory picks from the team that signed Anderson), the team had some leverage, and signed Anderson to a three-year, $24 million contract with $14.5 million guaranteed.
In February 2009, Patriots QB Matt Cassel (who before 2008 hadn't started a game since high school) was slated to become an unrestricted free agent. Timing is everything, and Cassel stepped in for an injured Tom Brady in September 2008 to lead the Patriots to an 11-5 record. New England used its non-exclusive franchise tag on him, which Cassel signed almost immediately for the guaranteed tender of $14.65 million for 2009. The Patriots then traded Cassel to Kansas City. From there, the Chiefs signed Cassel to a six-year, $63 million contract with $28 million guaranteed.
What's more, an uncapped 2010 season would NOT count toward a player's severence pay. Moreover, an uncapped year also means a year with no minimum spending requirement. Expect to hear plenty more about this in the coming weeks and months, particularly if the various sides involved (the league, owners like Daniel Snyder, owners like Ralph Wilson, the NFLPA, guys who could miss out on a big payday like Ware, etc.) aren't able to move toward reaching some sort of a long-term solution.
Here we go... it's mailbag time!
From: Rodrigo Muniz
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Jul 8, 2009 at 12:01 PM
Subject: 2010 QB bonanza
Hey Lou
Look's like the 2010 NFL draft will have a lot of elite prospects at QB. We have Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Jevan Snead, Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow.
When I look to these 5 guys I see 4 of them getting drafted on the first 3 rounds, and Tebow is the huge question. Can he become an NFL QB, he has some ability that shows that he's different, but sometimes I see some Byron Leftwich on him. Where do you think he will land? First two/three rounds, later on the draft or even not getting drafted?
Thanks for your time!
Lou: The 2010 Draft is certainly shaping up to be quite intriguing at the quarterback position. Remember how USC head coach Pete Carroll pouted about QB Mark Sanchez leaving for the NFL when he had a remaining year of eligibility remaining at USC (despite the fact that Sanchez ended up graduating in May)? In my opinion that was just Carroll being selfish and emotional; the odds of Sanchez being a top five pick in the 2010 Draft was, at best, a long shot. But in the 2009 Draft he went #5 overall to the New York Jets, and now he has a contract signed with the Jets: five years, $44.5 million with $28 million guaranteed. Plus, he has the look and the market (NYC) to earn some big endorsement money. Any way you slice it, I say Advantage: Sanchez.
|  | It's unclear at this point where Tim Tebow will go in the 2010 NFL Draft. (Icon SMI)
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The most unpredictable of the elite QB prospects has to be Florida QB Tim Tebow. The senior has a chance to win a second Heisman Trophy and be part of a team that has a chance to win a third BCS Title in a four year span. Yet, when it comes to his NFL prospects, there are many varying opinions of him. Mel Kiper last year said that, had Tebow turned pro early, he saw Tebow as a third-round pick to play safety. That seems crazy in many ways for someone with so much going for him as Tebow does, but he clearly is a wild card when it comes to projecting for his status in the 2010 NFL Draft.
Skilled sports writer Dan Shanoff has created this Tim Tebow blog dedicated to covering Tebow. It will be most interesting to see what Shanoff is able to do with that project. But, in many ways, it seems very difficult to think of what Tebow could possibly do to further improve his draft status.
As for comparising of him to Leftwich, Tebow is shorter (6'2" 240 lbs.) than Leftwich (6'5" 250 lbs.). Both have had similar completion percentages as college QBs, though Tebow certainly has faced tougher defenses than Leftwich did at Marshall -- though Tebow also has had better offensive weapons as his disposal than Leftwich had in Huntington.
But there are intangibles with Tebow that can't be overlooked: his toughness, his amazing leadership skills, and his intestinal fortitude all come to mind. Plus, Leftwich had injury concerns coming out of college, something that hasn't (to this point) been a problem for Tebow. There are some similarities to be drawn, but I wouldn't look at Leftwich's journeyman status in the NFL as a sign of what to expect from Tebow on the pro level.
Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford is a redshirt junior (just as Sanchez was in 2008), and he could potentially come back to OU for another year in 2010 before heading to the NFL. If he goes pro, he has to be right up there toward the top among the elite QB prospects.
Down in Austin, QB Colt McCoy is a senior and is the safest bet to be a first-round pick of all QB prospects -- I write that since Bradford could potentially come back to Norman next fall. McCoy has all the skills one would want in an NFL quarterback prospect, and barring injury he should have every opportunity to make it as a pro QB.
It's interesting that you mention Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who transferred from Texas after the 2006 season, sat out in 2007, and looked good at times for the Rebels in 2008. Remember that the Rebels beat Florida in Gainesville last year with Snead at the helm. But Snead had some bad games last year (such as his 0 TD/4 INT performance in a 23-17 home loss to Vanderbilt), and he needs to show marked improvement in his consistency before I would label him as an elite quarterback.
As for Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen, it would be quite surprising to me if he left South Bend early for the NFL, particularly considering the QB prospects who will be in the 2010 NFL Draft. It's still July -- just wait to see who breaks out as a quarterback star this fall. Also, don't overlook mid-major school guys like Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour and Florida Atlantic's Rusty Smith who could sneak into the mix.
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