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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
May 28, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
As tipped this morning by PFT, Jason Whitlock of the Kansas City Star penned an interesting article earlier this week about the contract status of Chiefs QB Matt Cassel. As Whitlock noted, Cassel is under contract for only the 2009 season, with him guaranteed $14.65 million thanks to the Patriots using the franchise tag to keep him from escaping via free agency.
 | Matt Cassel is slated to earn $14.65 million in 2009. (Icon SMI)
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Many people (myself included) assumed that Cassel would have to agree to a long-term contract with his new team as part of any trade of him out of New England. But that didn't happen, and three months after arriving in Kansas City, Cassel has not yet signed a new contract with the Chiefs.
From a negotiating standpoint, Cassel has played this brilliantly in my opinion. He signed a massive one-year contract tender from New England (the average of the top five NFL quarterback salaries in 2008, as required by the rules of the franchise tag) almost as soon as New England offered it to him. With that guaranteed money locked into place, Cassel had no reason to agree to an extension with the Patriots (or anyone else) short of receiving an offer with a truly blockbuster signing bonus.
Kansas City may be able to talk him into signing a lesser-priced contract for 2010 and beyond if he struggles in 2009, but that would also mean that the team is investing money into a struggling quarterback. Moreover, the Chiefs would lose significant trade value if Cassel isn't able to replicate the form he showed in leading New England to an 11-5 record in 2008.
Conversely, if Cassel has a strong 2009 season, the Chiefs will either have to break the bank to sign him long-term or face using the franchise tag on him to the tune of roughly $17.58 million for 2010, which would represent 120% of his 2009 salary. Franchised players either get 120% of their previous year's pay or the average of the top five highest salaries at their position from the past year as their one-year tender offer, whichever is higher.
Whitlock described Cassel's presence in Kansas City as a "$15 million audition", and he might not be far from the truth with that. It's hard to fathom that Chiefs GM Scott Pioli would allow Cassel to get away after 2009, particularly after giving up a high second-round pick to acquire him (and LB Mike Vrabel). How far Pioli is willing to go to make that happen, however, remains to be seen.
From: Charlie Caswell, Jr.
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Thu, May 28, 2009 at 8:18 AM
Subject: (no subject)
Been a reader of your site a while you do a good job. But, where is Eric Berry in your draft he is not there. I thought after a couple of revisions that you would add him but I still do not see his name up there. Not only does Kiper have him way up on his board but, he is essentially the best playmaker in college football even though he is a hard hitting safety. He will at least be a top ten pick maybe higher how is he not in the first round?
Lou: You make a good point, and the absence of Berry in my 2010 Mock Draft is one that will be corrected with my next update. Berry, a true junior strong safety at the University of Tennessee, has been amazingly impressive in his first two seasons with the Vols. I happen to be a fan of Tennessee, to the point where I sometimes overcompensate in tempering my rankings of the school's players because of not wanting to be a homer and push a guy higher than he should be based on being a Vol. But, with Berry, I'm not sure that I can oversell his ability.
Berry is 5'11" 195-200 pounds, and he is a rare player in that he is tremendous at reading quarterbacks (note his 12 interceptions through his first two years in Knoxville) and also at laying the lumber on hits. The video on this page shows two tremendous plays by Berry from last year's Tennessee at Georgia game. Berry read the eyes of Matthew Stafford (the #1 pick in the 2009 Draft) on a fade round, picked off the ball, and took the interception out of the end zone back 54 yards. Later, Knowshon Moreno (the #12 pick in the 2009 Draft) ran a pitch from Stafford for a first down... and then found himself being waylaid by Berry, who struck Moreno with a ferocious (but clean) hit that would make Bob Sanders proud.
|  | Malcolm Jenkins won the 2008 Jim Thorpe Award. (Icon SMI)
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How good is Berry? When Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins (the #14 overall pick in the 2009 Draft) won the 2008 Jim Thorpe Award, given annually to college football's best defensive back, backlash came via sports blogs and people on message boards angry about Jenkins getting the nod over Berry. Jenkins is an excellent player, but the case for Berry (particularly via a statistical comparison) is quite compelling.
I'm not sure if Mel Kiper has his 2010 projections online anywhere; the ESPN.com Insider section that I pay to access doesn't have anything from him about 2010 on there that I've seen. What's more, Todd McShay's ESPN Insider 2010 Mock Draft doesn't include redshirt sophomores or true juniors as of this writing. I suspect that ESPN won't allow Kiper or McShay (or anyone else) to write about third-year players in relation to being NFL prospects, which is crazy since they can write about redshirt juniors like Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford.
Note to ESPN: if this is accurate, then you are putting Kiper and McShay at a distinct disadvantage. I presume that network-affiliated websites are pressured on this (note that CBS Sports has a "seniors only" 2010 Draft linked from its NFL Draft page as of this writing) based on not putting themselves at a disadvantage in future negotiations for the broadcast rights for NCAA/BCS football games. Hey, we all have rules: I'm not allowed to talk about sports gambling on here as per the deals I have with my advertising partners. But limiting discussion on a sub-section of players who may be involved in the forthcoming draft seems to be counter-intuitive.
Rules for a website are one thing, but this article, among others, cites comments from Kiper that Berry is the top prospect for the 2010 NFL Draft. That is a strong endorsement, and while Kiper admits that either Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford or Texas QB Colt McCoy might end up as the #1 pick, he notes that this is the case because Berry plays safety, a position not usually connected with the top pick in the NFL Draft. Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, no defensive back has been taken with the #1 overall pick.
One disadvantage for Berry is that there will be at least one other high-profile safety in the draft in the form of USC FS Taylor Mays. Free safety is different than strong safety, but nonetheless a team in desperate need of a high-profile safety at either spot might compare and contrast Berry with Mays, scrunity that Berry wouldn't face if he waits until 2011 to enter the NFL. I doubt that would be enough to defer Berry from declaring early for the draft, but it is something worth keeping in mind.
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