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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
April 19, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
We're less than a week out from the 2009 NFL Draft, and while the top of the draft isn't set in stone, there seems to be a pattern emerging toward the top of the draft that makes sense.
At the top, all signs point toward Detroit taking Georgia QB Matthew Stafford. There are some out there who are not sold on Stafford, particularly as a #1 pick. I've had a few interesting conversations on the topic in the past week with people arguing against Stafford, but he really makes the most sense at that spot for the Lions. They can go defense at #20 and #33.
For the Rams at #2, the presumption has been that the team will go with Baylor OT Jason Smith. This is not a sure thing, since they could go with a player like Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree or Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry. But, with Orlando Pace gone and a desperate need for a franchise left offensive tackle, St. Louis going with J. Smith here makes the most sense.
|  | DeMarcus Ware is a disruptive force on defense. (Icon SMI)
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Kansas City is moving to a 3-4 defense, and a speedy OLB like Curry would be a wonderful fit for them at #3. Curry has DeMarcus Ware type potential, and his rise up the draft board in the past year has been impressive.
The #4 spot has been tough to get a read on, as Seattle has a variety of needs. But there are plenty of rumors that the Seahawks could be looking to draft USC QB Mark Sanchez there, which would be good for the future given that incumbent QB Matt Hasselbeck turns 34 in September. Virginia OT Eugene Monroe may be of interest as well, and there is always the possibility that Seattle could draft Crabtree.
But, as Sanchez's status has risen, the likelihood of him possibly being the #4 overall player taken in the draft has risen. The odds of that happening in 2010 would have been significantly lower for Sanchez had he returned to USC for a free season (since Sanchez is slated to graduate soon) no matter how well he played there.
With the fifth spot in the draft, Cleveland could consider Boston College DT B.J. Raji to play nose tackle in the 3-4. If Raji didn't fail the NFL Combine drug test (which has been rumored but refuted by Raji's agent), then it's a possibility. I had thought that NFL teams already knew about drug test results from the combine, but this story from ProFootballTalk.com indicates that NFL teams won't be told about drug test results from the combine until tomorrow or Tuesday. That seems like a very short turnaround time for teams that are having to process a large volume of information about a wide variety of players.
From: Robert Sawicki
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Sun, Apr 19, 2009 at 8:32 PM
Subject: Lions superbowl is upon us!!!
We are about 6 days from the draft and it's looking like Matt Stafford will be the Lions pick. I would like your opinion on him and if you think he is the right pick for us and if he will be a good pro. I personally hope we draft Curry or Smith. What we as Lions fans and the Lions orginizations need to realize is that we finished 0 - 16 last year and it's near impossible to turn this team into a playoff contender in one offseason. We need to think of this as a two year rebuild. Thats why this year we need to fix the defense and build inside out, we need to solidify the trences. Please draft Smith (pick 1-a), Rey Maulauga (pick 1-b), Ron Brace, or Ziggy Hood(pick 2), Herman Johnson (pick 3-a) and with pick (3-b) BPA. If this happens our o-line is set for years with LT Smith LG Backus C Raoila RG Johnson RT Cherilous. Then on defense we have on of the best LB core in the NFL with Peterson, Maulauga and Sims. COME ON LIONS BE SMART! Then next year get your QB of the future and continue to add yound players on your defense. Martin mayhew make it happen!! Can't wait til Saturday, this weekend will determine if Mayhew will be a good GM. Please Lou tell me if I'm way off with my idea's.
Lou: So far I've been very impressed with Martin Mayhew. Everyone knew that Roy Williams (the wide receiver) wasn't coming back to Detroit after this past season, barring the use of the franchise tag. So what did Mayhew do? He found a willing taker in Jerry Jones and managed to extract a first and a third round pick in the 2009 Draft in exchange for Williams (and a late round pick). He didn't sign any foolishly large contracts to free agents in a quick fix approach this off-season. And, now, he has plenty of room with which to work with picks #1, #20, and #33. Meanwhile, ESPN decided to hire Millen as an analyst, which is really where Millen is best suited. Granted, Millen's credibility is shot after the Detroit disaster, but congrats to him for finding work.
Barring something very unexpected happening, Matthew Stafford will be picked #1 overall by Detroit. Let 2006 be a reminder that there is no lock until the pick is made (or the deal is struck) for the #1 overall selection. But, with a new administration in power in Detroit, taking a franchise QB at the top spot makes quite a bit of sense. Jason Smith would be a nice addition to the Lions, but with Detroit needing a quarterback of the future so bad and Stafford having had such a great workout for the team, it seems like Stafford will end up going #1 overall.
I'm in agreement that adding Rey Maualuga would be a wonderful thing for the Detroit defense. There are all sorts of possibilities for adding young, top-shelf defensive talent at #20 and #33, not to mention the possibility of trading down to acquire even more picks. Detroit has many needs, and the more fresh blood that the team can bring in, the better.
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