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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
April 13, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
There are some in Raider Nation who are unhappy with the projection of Oakland drafting Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey with the #7 overall pick in the draft. I made that projection on here a couple of weeks ago, and I've found that Mike Mayock of the NFL Network independently projected Heyward-Bey to Oakland as well as a "surprise" pick. The idea makes sense to me since Oakland needs a top-flight WR with size and speed, which makes Heyward-Bey look like a perfect fit for the team. Raiders owner Al Davis is known for his love of having fast players on his roster, and Heyward-Bey's 4.30 40 run at the combine might put him over the top of Davis.
To be sure, Oakland needs considerable improvement at a number of spots on defense. But, if it comes down to stretching to take a DE or OLB at #7 or going with a playmaker like Heyward-Bey, it could easily end up happening. The Raiders already have a good kick returner in the form of Johnnie Lee Higgins, and Heyward-Bey, while still somewhat raw, has the potential to be a great NFL player.
There is plenty of scuttle going around about several teams wanting to trade out of the top ten, but there not being much interest from other teams in trading up. The 6-10 range is doable, but those trades often work best with an "on the clock" deal where a team trades up to get one specific player who has fallen to a given spot.
The top of the draft is looking more and more firm: Georgia QB Matthew Stafford to Detroit at #1, Baylor OT Jason Smith to St. Louis at #2, and Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry at #3. From there it becomes considerably more fractured, in no small part because of the split in opinion on the value of players below that spot (and the Mark Sanchez wild card). This is not to say that the top three picks in the draft are locked in stone, but at this point the top three positions look pretty good. But, as always with this process, it's subject to change.
For now, here is the latest from the mailbag...
From: Richard Gonzalez
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Fri, Apr 10, 2009 at 10:01 PM
Subject: denver first round
hi lou thanks for your time. I am long time reader of your drafts but i strongly feel that tyson jackson will not be the 12th pick of the denver broncos. It is said that a nt is the most important position in a 3-4 and with the broncos not having a legitimate starter at that position I feel that they will select bj raji if he is available. p.s. ive been hearing rumors of denver trading up to get mark sanchez before the seahawks do and if that happens it would be the most dumbest move made in franchise history.
Lou: The possibility of Seattle drafting USC QB Mark Sanchez has come up in some recent projections, and that could impact the draft in many ways. I've held onto the idea of the Seahawks drafting Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree for longer than most, but with the indications seeming to lean more and more away from that, I'm likely going to have no other choice but in moving Crabtree down from #4 in my mock. There are just too many signs pointing toward Seattle passing on Crabtree despite the great long-term impact he could have on the team.
If Seattle does pass on Crabtree, and particularly if Seattle was to draft Sanchez at #4, it would be very interesting to see if Cleveland would take Crabtree at #5. Or instead, the Browns might make a bit of a stretch pick to grab from among the likes of Texas DE Brian Orakpo or Boston College DT B.J. Raji. Both are talented players, but they might be seen as a slight stretch at #5, particularly Raji who has seen his stock fall in recent weeks.
As for Denver trading up to get Sanchez, it could happen if he falls to the #8 pick, which Jacksonville is believed to want to trade down from. That could happen. However, I suspect that the Broncos will give Kyle Orton a one-year chance. If that doesn't work, then Denver might try to tap into the QB bonanza likely to be hitting in 2010.
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