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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
March 26, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The method for determining the draft order for non-Super Bowl playoff teams will change beginning in 2010. The wild-card game losing teams will be seeded 21st through 24th based on their regular-season records. In the divisional rounds, the losing teams will be seeded 25th through 28th, also based on regular-season records. The losing teams from the conference championship game will be seeded 29th and 30th, again with regular-season records determining who gets which pick.
The owners voted unanimously for this change, likely because of what happened this past season. The San Diego Chargers went 8-8 but won their division and also won a playoff game. But because of their 8-8 regular-season record, the Chargers will be drafting in this upcoming draft ahead of four non-playoff teams and also ahead of Indianapolis, who lost to San Diego in the playoffs.
Now, onto the mailbag.
From: Donald Erlick
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Fri, Mar 20, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Subject: Redskins OT
Hi Lou,
I enjoy reading your site and the level of insight you provide. Hopefully you'll keep at it for a long time..
My question is about the possibilities of what the Redskins might do with their draft pick. I'm still on the fence on how Haynesworth will pan out (especially with questions on the rest of the DLine) but unless the OL gets fixed, production might falter during midseason just like it did last year (enough with that Jansen/Heyer mularkey already).
I'd like them to trade up for either Monroe or Oher (though you have him projected with the 'skins I doubt he'll still be there) or trade down for Britton (possibly acquiring a 2nd round for a DE [Krueger?]).
You reckon any of that'll happen?
|  | Will Michael Oher be on the board when Washington picks at #13? (Icon SMI)
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Lou: Albert Haynesworth will have an impact on Washington's defensive line, to be sure. He is the top defensive tackle in the league who is still in the prime of his career. To what degree he is able to maintain his top level of play (and to avoid injury) remains to be seen, particularly with him having been guaranteed such a large amount of money. But the Redskins fixed a problem at defensive tackle that has been nagging them for quite some time now, and there's something to be said for that.
Will Michael Oher fall to Washington's pick at #13? I think there's a pretty good possibility of it happening, particularly with so much talent being at the offensive tackle position this year (Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith). And if Oher is gone, I think there is a good chance that Andre Smith will still be on the board. The draft is not a zero sum game as far as any given position goes, particularly with 32 teams holding 32 different opinions, but it would surprise me for four of the top 12 picks to be offensive tackles.
Trading down to get Arizona OT Eben Britton is a possibility, though I can't recall any time during the Daniel Snyder era when the Redskins have traded down in the first down. If the "top four" offensive tackles are gone by the time #13 comes up then Washington should be in a position to land an elite player who has slid, potentially a blue chip defensive end.
As it stands now, the Redskins very well could have a great chance to draft Florida State DE Everette Brown or perhaps go with an OLB like USC's Brian Cushing or Virginia's Clint Sintim. Defensive end makes sense with Washington having cut Jason Taylor, but with the money already invested into the defensive line this off-season, perhaps Washington will wait to pick a defensive end until later in the draft.
From: Sean Combrink
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Tue, Mar 24, 2009 at 2:57 AM
Subject: Chiefs
The chiefs have managed to position themselves very interestingly for the upcoming draft. They have a quarterback but need an attacking D and a better performing O-line. They now have at least some help outside of D-Bowe. They also have trade bait with Larry Johnson. But the offense needs to be anchored properly. Williams and Smith are both good backs that have good talent and can support each other – Williams with the speed and Smith with the power – but they need more O-line help. Now the best way to do this would be to draft Monroe out of Virginia, he played with Albert so they already have chemistry, and if Waters still wants out then trade him for a right tackle, getting rid of the less than average McIntosh. This gives the chiefs a young talented O-line, with a decent QB a great receiver and a hall of fame TE, only missing a true number two wideout, but that can be fixed later on.
Unfortunately this scenario does mean the chiefs will leave their disastrous D alone.
With the D I’m not sure they will change immediately to a 3-4 and would rather take their time with the talent they have there now. I hoping the addition of Vrabel will allow DJ to move back to the outside where he is a much better player but he needs support from the D-line to make his plays. This is where the trade bait of Larry Johnson comes in, trade him to a team in need of RB for a 2nd rounder – where possibly a player like Michael Johnson will be available – or an aging DE that can give the young front some experience – or perhaps pay a player like Jason Taylor to come play for one season, just to give the younger guys some experience, there is talent on that front line just a bit of direction is needed. The chiefs do however miss out on the outstanding talent that is Aaron Curry, but his knock is that he has rarely rushed the passer in Wake defensive scheme, which is exactly what the chiefs need right now.
If the chiefs do not pick an OT then I hope they move down – almost impossible from number three – or at least stretch for DE Brian Orakpo to put some pressure on the QB.
Lou: Kansas City can only move down to #5 at best, barring something really unexpected, due to the constraints of the rookie salary cap. If Aaron Curry is on the board at #3, *and* if the Browns would be inclined to move up to get him (which seems like a distinct possibility so long as Kansas City doesn't demand more than Cleveland is willing to give up to move up to get Curry), the Chiefs moving down to #5 and drafting Orakpo is not outside the realm of possibility. I'm not sure that Orakpo's skills would
|  | Larry Johnson has averaged 4.5 yards per carry during his NFL career. (Icon SMI)
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At the same time, if the Chiefs decide not to go with an offensive tackle at #3, I would be surprised to see them go with anyone else but Curry at that spot. Derrick Johnson playing OLB in a 3-4 would be intriguing, but having him and Curry at OLB would suddenly make the Chiefs defense very dangerous. As for Michael Johnson, he may slip out of round one, but obviously Kansas City won't be in position to draft Johnson in round two (without a trade) since it dealt its second round selection to New England to get Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel.
I doubt that any team will give up a second-round pick to acquire Larry Johnson. Johnson turns 30 this year, and the grind that Herm Edwards and company put on him in 2005 (336 carries) and 2006 (416 carries) cannot be overlooked. Particularly with the contract that Kansas City foolishly (in my opinion) gave him in August 2007 (which was chronicled on HBO's Hard Knocks), trading him will be difficult at best, and no GM worth his salt would give up a valuable second-round pick to get a guy with as much baggage as LJ brings to the table.
On the upside? This could be a breakout year for Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles, a rare early departure from the University of Texas and a player who the Chiefs drafted during the RB bonanza of 2008. But, if Kansas City can get a quality 3-4 DE prospect (be it Michael Johnson or whomever else) to go with either Curry or a top flight offensive tackle prospect, that would definitely make for a successful draft.
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