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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
March 17, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The draft gets closer on a daily basis, and the interest and speculation in it is likely to continue to grow. I made a small update to the Draft King mock on here today, though an overview of the entire mock really needs to be made following the second wave of free agent signings. And, of course, even then there will be plenty of consideration and speculation between now and late April.
I'm behind on the mailbag, so here goes...
From: Jared Gruber
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Tue, Mar 10, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Subject: Fili Moala
What has caused Fili Moala to fall from projected first overall pick after the '08 to probable late 2nd or 3rd round pick? If we can't get Jerry in the first round, do you think Moala is a good fit for my Colts to take in the second round?
Lou: The Colts may be able to get either Moala or Auburn DT Sen'Derrick Marks in round two. The main problem with Moala is that he isn't seen as much of a pass rushing threat, which could be problematic for him fitting in well with the Colts and their Cover 2 defense (which is predicated in large part on pressure coming from the front four). Moreover, Moala, while a large man at 6'4" 305, isn't a hulking figure on the line -- at least not enough to help separate him from other top DT prospects.
The idea with sites (including this one) that projected Moala as a #1 overall pick prospect last summer was that it was based on the thought that Moala would develop into an overall dominant defensive tackle. That didn't happen, and meanwhile players like Boston College DT B.J. Raji developed into stronger overall prospects. That's how it goes when you project a given player with a full college season to go.
Moreover, defensive tackle is right up there with quarterback and wide receiver as a boom-or-bust position in the first round. There is risk involved with any pick, but those three spots tend to be a mix of great pros and colossal busts. Why is that? Because, to a large degree, it is difficult to anticipate how players at those positions will translate their skills to the pro level.
NFL general managers know all of this, and when they look at prospective players at QB or WR or DT, they look for any and all potential signs that they might not be able to make a strong move to the next level. And when Moala comes across looking "lanky" as one report described him, and he hasn't developed into an interior line pass rush threat, and there are larger and stronger defensive tackles out there... suddenly Moala slides from #1 overall to being a second or third round selection.
From: mikegrossoaks@*******.net
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Thu, Mar 12, 2009 at 9:16 AM
Subject: Lions draft
Hey Lou!
Hope you are feeling better. Love the site. I would like your opinion on the way I would like the Lions to draft.
I would like to see them address the defense this year. I hope they take Aaron Curry first, with James Laurinitis second first, and William Moore with the first pick of the second round.
I feel with adding Grady Jackson, Anthony Henry, and Philip Buchanon that the makings of a good, tough, physical defense with playmaking ability would only help the offense.
I would like to see the Lions go after a better quarterback next year.
|  | Ernie Sims will be joined by Julian Peterson in Detroit's LB corps in 2009. (Icon SMI)
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What do you think Lou?
Lou: There is something to be said for Detroit building its defense, particularly with that side of the ball having been ignored for so long. At the same time, Ernie Sims being on the roster at OLB represents the best defensive player on the team in my estimation. Drafting Aaron Curry #1 overall could bring more trouble than it's worth, particularly with Sims likely to be paid much less than the money that Curry would receive as the top pick in the draft.
Also, with Detroit having traded for Seattle OLB Julian Peterson, Curry seems like he's unlikely to go to the Lions. Yes, that trade happened after the above e-mail was sent, but even without Peterson I don't think Curry would have been the right move for Detroit at the top spot.
If the Lions decide that going QB at #1 isn't going to work out well, the next logical thing would be to go with Baylor OT Jason Smith, who parlayed a strong season into a very impressive off-season of workouts, interviews, and the various poking and prodding that all NFL prospects endure.
I'm very much of the opinion that Laurinaitis (or USC ILB Rey Maualuga) going to Detroit at #20 would be a great move for the team. An inside linebacker with great skills and solid leadership (which both players would bring) would be a most helpful boost for the Lions. Laurinaitis, Sims, and Peterson would be a great trio at linebacker for Detroit.
SS William Moore at the top of round two would be interesting. There are varying opinions about him, and Detroit might opt to go with Oregon SS Patrick Chung instead of Moore if both players on the board. But either player would be a helpful addition to the Lions roster.
From: xtianxpoet@*****.com
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 4:05 PM
Subject: ny giants draft pick
why would the giants draft a dt while after signing two in free agency? they now have 0 need there. they will pick a lb, wr, or ol. change your pick according.
Lou: You are right -- with the NYG free agent signings (particularly former Cowboys DL Chris Canty), the Giants are quite unlikely to draft a defensive tackle, particularly in the first round. I concur about the LB idea, which the latest mock draft on here now reflects.
From: Justin Hansen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Mar 16, 2009 at 11:04 PM
Subject: Cutler fallout
With all the drama (aka crying) coming from Denver, how could a potential trade of Jay Cutler affect this April's draft? It seems how high Mark Sanchez is on Denver and San Fran's boards would have a lot to do with it. A pick higher than San Fran (presumably looking at a QB) would be necessary for Denver to have a shot at the top flight QB. Tampa, Minnesota, and Chicago do not have a pick that high. What can a team like Tampa do? Wouldn't the best story be KC and Denver swapping first rounders and QBs? I know it won't happen (Top 5 money and Cap Room pretty much put a kibosh on it) but how awesome would it be to see those to take each other on twice a season?
Lou: I'm not sure if the Jay Cutler vs. Josh McDaniels situation can be resolved to keep Cutler in Denver. It's clear that Cutler wants out, as he has requested in no uncertain terms that the team trade him. There are plenty of people in Tampa who I know who would love to see Cutler join the Buccaneers, but the question then becomes: what would Denver get in return and who would QB the team in 2009?
It could be a scenario for Denver where they deal Cutler for perhaps Tampa Bay's first round pick, then the Broncos sign Jeff Garcia to a one-year deal and use one of their two first round selections on a signal-caller like Mark Sanchez or Josh Freeman (a real wild card in the mix at QB). The pressure in on McDaniels to find a solution to the situation, and he has more than a month to formulate a plan. Good luck to him on that -- it looks like a tall order at this point.
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