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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 19, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
Wow, what a chaotic week I've had. Work work work work work. I'm not complaining, but it's frustrating since it has kept me from writing on here (and I have quite a bit to say). Then again, I just watched The Hangover, so perhaps my time management skills need improvement. But Redbox had it when I went to buy my cousin a graduation gift from Walmart, and I couldn't pass it up.
Mark Ingram winning the Heisman is great for the SEC and for the University of Alabama, but it could have just as easily have gone to either Stanford RB Toby Gerhart, Texas QB Colt McCoy, or Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh. But it was Ingram who captured the Stiff Arm Trophy, and now he has a chance to win a BCS Title with the Crimson Tide. Plus, Ingram will have a chance to win two in a row next year; as a true sophomore, Ingram is not eligible to leave early for the NFL.
With DT Gerald McCoy announcing that he will be leaving Oklahoma early for the NFL, it looks like both he and Suh will be likely top five picks. There is the outside chance of them going 1-2 in the 2010 NFL Draft, though the only way I see that happening is if both the Buccaneers and Rams are drafting below those spots. What makes sense is either Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford or Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen to the Rams (and the great site Walter Football is saying Clausen over Bradford rather strongly), Tennessee DB Eric Berry (if he leaves school, which he won't decide upon until after the Chick-Fil-A Bowl) to the Browns, and then Suh and McCoy going to the Buccaneers and Lions. Of course, with more than four months to go before the draft, I imagine we'll see plenty of changes in course both in what "makes sense" and also in how players sort out in individual team rankings.
There is potential for a slide in the draft for either Clausen or Bradford depending on how things play out. A team using a high first round pick on a quarterback is almost for sure going to be in strong need of a young, blue-chip signal-caller, something that would presumably prevent teams like Kansas City and others mentioned already (Bucs and Lions and maybe Browns) from going QB. On the upside: teams likely to be in the pick 6-10 range might get a top five prospect out of good fortune, something for Seahawks and Bills and even Redskins fans to keep in mind.
Another major declaration for the draft yesterday came from Maryland OT Bruce Campbell, who is going pro after the college season ends. Campbell has been plagued by injuries at times during his tenure in Norman, but at 6'7" 310 and with his skill set, he could end up being a first-round pick. I've seen at least one mock that has Campbell as a top ten pick, which I think is unlikely, but it's worth noting that at least in a few circles out there such a move in anticipated.
Something I've noticed this year is a willingness by ESPN to actually project the 2010 Draft with players with remaining college eligibility on its website. This is mostly kept behind closed doors in the ESPN Insider section (which is generally strong and, in my opinion, worth the money to access), but it's a marked improvement over the past, where Mel Kiper and Todd McShay had to use strictly seniors and (in some cases) redshirt juniors in early website projections. My speculation is that limitations on analysis of the full field of potentially eligible players by their experts (who are very good) came because of not wanting to upset the NCAA or NFL, particularly since both organizations have broadcast contracts with ESPN.
Maybe I'm entirely wrong about that, but whatever the case ESPN is now allowing it to happen in its Insider section. ESPN has done and still does some questionable things (such as bleeping the word "ass" on television, putting undue restrictions on Bill Simmons, and employing the insufferable Paul Maguire as a color commentator for many years), but this is a move in the right direction. And there's something to be said for that.
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