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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
January 7, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The big news of the day is that Georgia junior QB Matthew Stafford and redshirt sophomore RB Knowshon Moreno have announced that they will be entering the 2009 NFL Draft.
I doubt that we'll hear anything from Oklahoma redshirt sophomore Sam Bradford and Florida junior Tim Tebow until after tomorrow night's BCS Title game. USC QB Mark Sanchez is on the fence on coming out at this point, and he will probably be a last day decision.
From: Nick Gniadek
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Jan 5, 2009 at 3:37 PM
Subject: 2009 Mock Draft
I was just lookin over your recent mock draft, and while it is still early in the draft cycle I had a few comments and questions about yours. First off I dont see Buffalo drafting another cornerback this year. They just drafted one in the first round last year and it would surprise me to see them do it again. Secondly I dont see Tim Tebow going in the first round at all. No one seems to think that Tebow will make a good NFL quaterback. The word out there on Tebow is that he might have to make the change to TE in order to play in the NFL. One last thing that I noticed is that Alabama DT Terrence Cody is no where to be found on your mock draft. If he comes out where would you expect him to go?
Lou: Fair point about Buffalo -- just last year they took Leodis McKelvin in the first round. Offensive tackle may prove to be a better fit there, particularly with the odd situation involving left OT Jason Peters.
 | Opinions vary on Tim Tebow's NFL potential. (Icon SMI)
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Consider this: Peters gave up 11.5 sacks in 13 games in 2008, more than any other starting left tackle in the league. This came after Peters held out of training camp despite having three years left on his contract. Peters is due base salaries of $2.95 million in 2009 and $3.4 million in 2010. With this being such a deep draft at offensive tackle, the Bills may opt to pick a player from there.
I don't see Tim Tebow being in a position where he would have to make a transition to tight end in the NFL. Tebow is 6'3" 240, so he would be on the smaller end of the NFL tight end scale (compare with, say, Todd Heap at 6'5" 255, Antonio Gates at 6'4" 260, Tony Gonzalez at 6'5" 250, etc.) I don't see him having to do that to play in the NFL. Could he? Perhaps. But I have great belief in Tebow's ability to succeed as a pro quarterback, though I certainly realize that there are many people who disagree with me on it.
As for Terrence Cody, he would instantly become the top 3-4 DT prospect in the draft if he was to come out early. Perhaps a team like the Dolphins might go for Cody at #26. At 6'5" 370, "Mount Cody" (as he is sometimes referred to) is a massive human being with amazing athleticism for his size. He did not submit his name to the NFL Draft advisory board, and Cody says that he plans to return to Alabama for the 2009 season.
Cody, who played high school ball in Ft. Myers, FL, spent two years at Gulf Coast Community College in Mississippi before playing for the Crimson Tide in 2008. Another year in the SEC should be great for helping prepare him for the NFL.
If Cody decided to go pro now, I'd see him as an early second round pick who might be able to work his way into the first round. He suffered a sprained MCL in his right knee in October 2008 against Ole Miss, and between that and his weight being a potential issue, he plans to return to Alabama for his senior year.
From: Sean Combrink
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Jan 7, 2009 at 1:47 AM
Subject: 2009 Mock Draft
Love the site.
I'm not sure the chiefs will go with either a QB or D-lineman in the first round.
The entire side of the D is very very young, all they are missing there is a veteran leader on the D, particularly a MLB, I feel that if there is the opportunity they might try and get into the Vilma sweepstakes. They do need a pass rusher but they will probs try to pick up a specialist in the later rounds, not a fulltime starter. The Chiefs D is young and can develop into a big time D with a little leadership.
They do not have a decent QB anywhere but I feel that even the new GM, whoever that is will need to sign a decent veteran, Huard/Croyle/Thigpen just don't crack it.
Unfortunately the chiefs crying needs are on the offensive front, they just do not have the nasty O-line they need to run Herm Edwards smash running offense (notice the spread offense they had to change to, partly due to Thigpen partly due to the O-line's inability to run protect effeciently).
The chiefs need a new entire right side of their line and a center or, a new LT moving Alberts back to his natural guard spot and still needing a RT and center.
If I was appointed the chiefs new GM, firstly I would attack a veteran free agent QB, then a blue-chip linebacker to lead the young D and look to the draft to rebuild the O-line much like how the jets did a few years back. If the veteran QB does not workout then the chiefs can look to Colt McCoy for next year but will hopefully have the line in place to protect their young QB.
Lou: From a defensive standpoint, we'll have to wait to see who the Chiefs put in charge and what approach they take, be it a 3-4 or 4-3 defense. If they stay with a 4-3, perhaps they'll keep former first round pick Derrick Johnson at the MLB spot, though he is entering the final year of his contract. Another option might be to get into the Jonathan Vilma sweepstakes, since from all indications the Saints won't be striking a deal with Vilma prior to him entering unrestricted free agency.
The problem for the Chiefs are stuck in the "Top Five Club" (it's very tough to trade into or out of the top five spots in the NFL Draft) and the major ILB prospects (USC's Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis) might be a bit of a stretch to take at #3. Though, with my current mock connecting Maualuga to the Browns at #5, maybe it wouldn't be that much of a stretch.
The way I see it, Chiefs could go for a top-flight offensive lineman or a QB or a defensive end or Rey Maualuga. There are many factors yet to be determined that could play into it.
|  | Peria Jerry is a speedy defensive tackle. (Icon SMI)
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From: Robert Bruce
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Jan 7, 2009 at 9:18 AM
Subject: Redskins Pick
As always you are doing a great job with the site and please keep up the hard work for all of us draft freaks. I wanted to ask you about the Skins pick. You have them slated to take Peria Jerry with the 13th overall pick. I am worried about this pick because it seems like Jerry is a little on the small end and doesn't have the Tommy Harris type speed or quickness to make up for it. Do you really feel that Jerry is worth this draft spot? I was thinking that since the Skins had the number 4 overall defense this year and were number 8 against the run they would look more towards the offensive line in the first round. With John Jansen breaking down physically (he's 32 and has had numerous injuries over the last few years) and Pete Kendall 36 they may look for help there. Do you see either Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe being someone who can step in next year and contribute on the line? If not offensive line, who are some of the DEs who may be available at the 13th pick that would warrant that selection and be an every down player? We have 2 very light DEs in Andre Carter and Jason Taylor and could use someone who is more than a situational player. Thanks Lou.
Lou: It's entirely possible that the Redskins could look toward the strong offensive line class for its first round pick, and I took that into consideration when I put my last draft together. The Redskins have a pair of talented offensive tackles with Chris Samuels and Jon Jansen. Both men are under contract through 2011. Jansen's contract is just $1.35 million for 2009, and if he remains injury-prone perhaps he'll be released before his $4.35 million for 2010 and $4.35 million for 2011 kick in. But I think the Redskins would be a year away from using a first round pick on an offensive lineman.
Both Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe have the look of players who could come in and contribute right away. One tactic that the Redskins might take is going for a second or third round offensive lineman, since there should be some talent that falls further than it should due to the volume of great offensive line talent in this draft.
As for Peria Jerry, he is 6'2" 290, which is smaller than some may like, but he makes up for it with great speed and a strong ability to get to the quarterback from the defensive tackle position. Another option might be BC defensive tackle B.J. Raji, who is 6'1" 325 pounds and might have more size for the Washington defensive line.
This is not a particularly strong year for defensive tackles as a whole in the draft, in stark contrast to free agency where DT Albert Haynesworth should be the shining star of the group who will in all likelihood break money records. If Daniel Snyder doesn't offer Haynesworth a ridiculous deal (don't count it out), I could see the Redskins going for a first round defensive tackle. Yes, the Redskins were #8 against the run (just 95.4 yards per game allowed on the ground), but a talent like Jerry could be a matchup challenge both against the run and also in the pass rush category.
It's hard to pin down any one major need for the Redskins -- just look at Hail Redskins to see the widely differing opinions out there about who Washington will take at #13. Perhaps I'm wrong and Washington will use a first round selection on an offensive tackle, but I don't personally foresee the Redskins doing that; I think they'd trade down first.
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