Lou Pickney's 2025 NFL Mock Draft

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Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.

From: Chris McKay
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mar 22, 2007 8:18 PM
Subject: Browns at #3

I have to say, I love the way the draft is setting up for the Browns. Suppose they decide they want to go with Adrian Peterson at #3 overall. Why not trade down? All the other teams until Houston at #10 overall are relatively set at running back.

If Joe Thomas is still on the board at #3 overall, they can shop the pick to a team (Arizona) looking to trade up for him. If Calvin Johnson is still on the board at #3, a team like Minnesota or Atlanta might want to trade up for him. They could even possibly shop the pick to Miami if one of the two big QBs makes it out of the top two picks. Any of these deals would still leave Cleveland in the top 9 picks overall, which should net them Adrian Peterson anyway.

Unless Cleveland has their heart set on Joe Thomas, and he falls to them at #3, I think trading down makes a ton of sense. In the 2nd round, they might get a shot at Joe Staley (who I think is underrated) or Tony Ugoh anyway. The only danger in trading down is that a team in need of a running back may trade up ahead of them to get Peterson. Your thoughts?

Lou: Cleveland appears to be in a very opportune spot to make any number of moves leading up to (or during) the draft.

There are few more natural matches in the draft than Joe Thomas to Arizona. Unfortunately for the Cards, it is not particularly likely that Thomas will fall to their pick at #5, which means that trading up is in order.

Fortunately for Arizona, there are two potential trading partners out there in Detroit and Cleveland. Detroit is likely trying to get a mega-deal worked out with a team wanting to move up for Calvin Johnson, so a Cleveland/Arizona deal would seem like a more natural match, as one of those deals that happens while the first team (in this case, Cleveland) is on the clock.

If Thomas is on the board, then Cleveland should be confident that the Cards would take Thomas following the trade, and that would leave only Tampa Bay between them and Adrian Peterson (if the draft order goes: JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas) and the Bucs have a franchise back in Cadillac Williams (as well as a bevy of QBs.) Peterson isn't seen as a slam dunk by most observers, so the Bucs finding a trading partner that wants to move up to get him would seem tricky, plus the whole difficulty level of trading into/out of the Top 5 would make any such move inherently difficult.

Alternately, Cleveland could make this same series of moves if the team wants Brady Quinn. The worst scenario I could foresee for Cleveland trading down would be Calvin Johnson at #1 and Joe Thomas at #2, but even then they'd be able to choose between Russell, Quinn or Peterson, which really isn't a bad worst case scenario.

I don't think that Cleveland will be able to move down to the Minnesota/Atlanta level because of the aforementioned salary cap challenges, but really the Browns should be able to come out of the first round with a star player at a need position at a minimum, and perhaps that and a pick or two from Arizona. That's not a bad position from which to act.

From: Joseph Patterson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mar 23, 2007 2:17 PM
Subject: Mock Draft Updated 3-23-07

I love your site. The reason I am writing you is that I think with the acquisition of Kevin Curtis there is little to no chance that Eagles take a WR with their first pick. They have to many holes on defense mostly at outside linebacker and safety. And given the fact that the last time they drafted a linebacker in the first round was in the seventies I would put my money on them taking a defensive back.

Lou: You may be right about the Eagles, though it also wouldn't surprise me if they went with an offensive or defensive lineman. My guess is that they will look at need spots (along with both lines, which is a constant source of attention for the organization early in drafts) and then swipe up the best player available.

Kevin Curtis may prevent Philly from making the selection of a WR a priority, but Curtis never had a big yardage type receiving season in St. Louis. To be fair, he was behind Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce on the depth chart, but I don't think that his acquisition automatically eliminates WR from first round consideration for the Eagles.

From: Justin Hansen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mar 23, 2007 6:14 PM
Subject: mock draft questions

I don't want to sound like a critic because I can tell you know your stuff and I wish I had some of the info you did but I have just a couple questions about some picks your projecting.

I know the later in the first round it goes the harder picks are to project but after his sub 4.4 40 time is patrick willis really going to last until #22? Linebacker is a position that has been short on top level talent the last few years. Is there a deep free agency pool on that position? Is he a tweener OLB/ MLB? I know LB isnt all about speed but Willis was a tackling machine in the sec. why would a talent like him last so long?

I never thought I'd think a steal could happen as high as #4 but will the best player in the draft fall that far? With Moss on the block, CJ doesnt seem to be out of the question if they get a decent QB in return. Is there much of a chance that Oakland dumps moss and gets someone in return that would stop them from taking russell?

Maybe its wishful thinking but will Carriker go before #25. Another site has him going to washington at #6 which I think is too high but what about SF at 11? Pit at 15? Denver at 21? Please tell me he's going before charles johnson.

Lou: I spent a great deal of time deliberating the possibilities surrounding Patrick Willis. I'm sold on the guy: he's speedy, a solid tackler, good work ethic, proven skills in a major conference (the SEC) where he was often the focus of attention by opposing offenses as a member of a second-tier program at Ole Miss (please, no angry e-mails from Rebels fans: I calls 'em like I sees 'em.) My point is that, even without other superstar defensive teammates to force action his way, he made plenty of impressive plays against top-level competition.

Perhaps a team could use Willis as an OLB, but I'd personally think that would be an under-utilization of his natural ability as a 3-4 MLB. That's in part where the trouble in placing him comes in: what team with a 4-3 defense has a gaping hole at MLB? I would've loved to slot him to the Rams, but Will Witherspoon had a great year at the MLB spot for the Rams (a free agent pickup from Carolina that didn't receive anywhere near the attention it deserved.) Ironically enough, it's the Panthers who may end up plugging their current middle linebacker hole with Willis, which would seem more in line of where Willis "deserves" to go in the draft.

Anything below #15 and a team is getting a good value deal out of Willis. He has the look of a guy who can have a long and successful NFL career.

I recently discussed the difficulty in pinpointing where Adam Carriker will go in the draft. Teams wanting a 4-3 DE might want a quicker player, but Carriker is speedy despite his size. He could go as high as #11 to San Francisco, and that actually would be a great pairing. Pittsburgh taking him would certainly be a sign that Pittsburgh is going to stay with the 3-4 long-term, but with Mike Tomlin in town I doubt that will happen. Denver should be looking for DE talent at the #21 spot, and Carriker is a possibility there. You might also see a team trade up for the specific reason of drafting him -- there's really no one else like him in the draft.

From: Jared Gruber
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mar 25, 2007 8:17 PM
Subject: (no subject)

Do you really think that Steve Smith will go in the first round? I realize that Smith's stock has been has been raising these past few weeks, but has he really jumped two full rounds? I personally believe there are a few WR that are better(Sidney Rice, Anthony Gonzalez, Craig Davis). Just curious about your thoughts.

Lou: Around the time of the combine I put Steve Smith into my first round -- and I received a batch of "what, are you crazy?" e-mails. So I rethought it and took him out.

But now? I've reconsidered and put him back in there. Maybe he's destined for round two or three, but one thing I've noticed in years past is that conventional wisdom and common appraisals at the WR position don't always equate to what actually happens. At some spots there are guys who are locks to go first, and at wideout if Calvin Johnson doesn't go well before any other WR, something is seriously wrong. No argument there.

But after that? I personally like Dwayne Jarrett a great deal, but there's him and Dwayne Bowe and Sidney Rice and Robert Meacham and some of the others (including the guys you mentioned) all in that mix. I know some people are not high on Smith, but I think that Smith is going to go off the board much higher than expected. He can catch the ball well and separate from defenders, and GMs have seen plenty of track stars come through who turn into butterfingers or can't get open despite their on-paper stats. Plus, Smith is a great blocker, he had a strong combine, and I think that he has a very good chance of going in the first round. The one thing working against Smith is his height (5’11¾”) -- there are other nit-picks to be made, but the height issue is the major thing that could hurt him.

Remember when Lee Evans went #13 overall in the 2004 Draft? Now it looks like a smart pick, but at the time it was a "surprise" and a "reach" in the minds of some. Hell, I was critical of it at the time, but Evans proved to be well worth the high pick. With so many good (but not "great") WRs in this draft, I expect there to be a wide variety of opinions among GMs in ranking them, which makes sorting it all out a tricky exercise. Maybe I'm wrong about Smith, but I like his chances moreso than some other similarly ranked players.

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