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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
February 16, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Ryan Fielder
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 15, 2007 7:58 AM
Subject: Ted Ginn
Lou, love the site. I have a hypothetical to offer you. When Ted Ginn was recruited to play for Ohio St., he was listed as the top CB in the nation. As he went on with his career at Ohio St., he was moved to offense. What do you think about a team drafting him as a Free Safety/Kick Returner? He could still play on offense at times like Pac Man Jones or Champ Bailey as well.
Lou: As such a potentially explosive offensive weapon, Ginn is too valuable to use away from the offense. With his (relatively) small frame, free safety would seem to be a position not particularly well-suited for him. Granted, it's the strong safety who handles the primary run defense from the secondary in most situations, but what happens when teams catch Ginn in a zone coverage situation and he has to cover Plaxico Burress, Matt Jones, or Randy Moss?
To be sure, unless he ends up in Chicago or somewhere where the kick return duties are already spoken for, Ginn will likely be utilized as the primary kick return threat.
I see many risks for teams considering Ginn based on his size, and while he should be a very fun player to see perform in the NFL, there is more risk with him (in my estimation) than with other high-end prospects.
It's not impossible to think that Ginn would perform some on defense, but he would seem to be most likely to be used in three CB sets in passing situations where the QB would need to make a quick read-and-throw and Ginn could use his speed to make a break on the ball.
Since the mailbag has been a little empty the past few days, here are some general thoughts that deserve consideration:
-I thought that I might be in for a backlash for putting Brady Quinn at #13 to St. Louis. Instead... it has been eeriely quiet. Has Quinn really fallen that far? I think we all learned last year with Matt Leinart's slip that anything can happen with high-end QB prospects. Leinart was arguably the surest thing since Carson Palmer, or maybe even Peyton Manning, as a prospect yet he had two safeties go in the draft before him. And I still don't buy the Quinn-to-Miami talk. Why would word be coming out of Miami if that was really the team's hope?
When in doubt, in football as in life, follow the money. Daunte Culpepper's contract is huge ($5,500,000 for 2007), but more importantly the cap penalty for cutting Culpepper would hit the Dolphins hard now. Meanwhile, NBC Sports reports that Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron says he's "extremely impressed" with what Culpepper has shown him so far. If I'm Miami, I put out the Quinn talk as a red herring to avoid drawing attention to wanting to take either Alan Branch or Amobi Okoye at #9, lest San Francisco in turn end up tempted to trade up (to Minnesota at #7?) to secure Branch.
-Most logical trade in the top five: Detroit #2 overall to Arizona for the Cardinals' #5 overall and something like the Cards' 2nd round pick in 2007, and the 2nd round pick in 2008. Arizona then gets the OT it covets in Joe Thomas (the Cardinals are not going to franchise tag OT Leonard Davis), while Detroit can go DE with Gaines Adams (who is a badass game changer), and Detroit can fill a couple of other spots in round two.
-Keep in mind that the majority of mock drafts out there are projecting JaMarcus Russell to the Raiders at #1. This is far from a lock from happening, but it is the most logical projection that can be made at the present time based on knowing what Al Davis likes (QBs with strong arms.) Don't count out Calvin Johnson there, though, as the Raiders need to unload at least one of the surly WR combo of Randy Moss and Jerry Porter, with Moss being the most likely candidate to be unloaded of the two. Moss may have a bad attitude, but he's never failed to have a 1,000+ yard season in any year where he's played all 16 games (all but two.) Yes, he turns 30 this year, and it may be tough for Oakland to get even a second round pick for him, but Moss returning to the Raiders doesn't seem to be particularly likely to happen.
-There's been talk that the Packers would take a first round WR, but I don't see that making too much sense, as the learning curve tends to be such where a wideout doesn't hit his stride until year three. Meanwhile, a running back can make an immediate impact, and while Ahman Green did post a 1,000 yard season for the Packers, he's a free agent who turns 30 tomorrow. And the "wrong" side of 30 is not a place where you want to be if you're an NFL running back.
-One thing to keep in mind with the mock drafts you see out there now is that free agency will lead to widespread change as far as team needs go. Many of the higher-profile free agents to-be are beginning to be hit with the franchise tag: Cincinnati slapped it on Justin Smith, New England tagged Asante Samuel (who just had a career year), Chicago used it on Lance Briggs, etc. Look for the Colts to do the same to Dwight Freeney before the February 22 tag deadline.
But there will be talent out there to be had, particularly CB Nate Clements, who has an agreement with Buffalo where they promised not to use the franchise tag on him this off-season. Clements is going to cash in BIG TIME, but whatever team that ends up with him can likely scratch off CB on the potential first round pick list. That, in turn, can send a ripple effect all the way down the draft board. Also looking to cash in will be the aforementioned OT Leonard Davis, DE Patrick Kerney, and (if he makes it out of Baltimore, which is tight on cap space), LB Adalias Thomas.
-Things could get ugly with the tag business if the Lions do as many expect and tag DL Cory Redding. Detroit plans to tag him as a DT, which would be a tender for nearly $2 million less than the position he played before, DE.
-Word out of Baltimore is that Jamal Lewis will be a salary cap/roster bonus casuality. Mike Anderson doesn't seem to me to be the guy to handle primary RB duties, and with no Edgerrin James type RB free agents on the horizon, I think more than ever that the Ravens will go RB in round one.
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