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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 6, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Jared Culverhouse
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 6, 2007 1:10 PM
Subject: Texans pick.
I am just curious you have the Texans picking at 14 with Kenny Phillips still on the board and taking Johnathan Stewart. I agree that Stewart is going to be awesome and is physically gifted but with one of the worst secondaries in football and a pretty deep class for running back do you think Kubiak will take a back in the first round? I think Phillips is the obvious choice to finish off the D esp. considering the injuries suffered, do you think Phillips could start immediatley and same question about Stewart.
Lou: In recent mocks I've had Stewart going to Houston, though in my latest I have them taking Felix Jones at #11. But, for the sake of discussion, the current Draft King 2007 Mock fits the same way relative to the Texans having the chance to take a top-flight RB or taking Kenny Phillips.
What the Texans do will likely be based on how many of the strong junior RB class declare early and how the team rates them. If the guys below McFadden project in a comparable way for the team, it's possible that Houston could opt to wait until the second round and choose from whatever RBs are left there.
However, while an upgrade at safety would be nice, Houston is actually not doing all that bad against the pass. To date they've given up less than 216 yards per game, which puts them in the middle of the pack at 16th in the league. Current free safety Von Hutchins has been serviceable in his spot, and while he hasn't put up Pro Bowl numbers, he has done just fine. However, he is slated to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this year, which would make selecting Phillips more believable.
As for starting immediately, Phillips possibly could, but I think that any of the top tier RBs, be it Felix Jones or Jonathan Stewart or the others, could be a day one starter for Houston. Who is going to beat them for the spot: Ron Dayne? Ahman Green? I doubt it.
It is true that there this is a weak year at safety, but there may be a chance for Houston to land a free safety like Alabama's Simeon Castille or Oklahoma's Nic Harris in round two. Alternately, the Texans could look to the free agent market to add a veteran like Ken Hamlin or Eugene Wilson, which would also be an option for the team.
From: Samer Ismail
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 6, 2007 5:40 PM
Subject: Pats' draft pick
It's fair to say that the big question of the draft season will be, "What will the Patriots do?" (when was the last time a team this good had a pick this high?). But here's my question (and it's one I don't have an answer for)--what's to stop the Patriots from making several deals to slowly slide down the board?
I'm just making numbers up here, so forgive me if I screw up the value chart:
"Hey, Atlanta--how would you like to swap your first-rounder and your second for our #2 pick? Excellent!"
"Hey, Eric--how would you like to move up a couple of slots? You would? Well, #%(&@#%#@%@#%(&@#%"
"Hey, Cincinnati--how would you like to swap the #6 pick and your 2009 second for the #3 pick? Excellent!" [<-- Note: this has the added benefit of potentially screwing the Jets.]
"Hey, Baltimore--. . . ."
And then, when the value is right, the Pats finally use their pick. [They'd be willing to give up some "chart value" to save cap dollars, I think.]
Lou: The issue with cap dollars isn't so bad for the team moving down as it is for the team moving *into* the top five. As I pointed out earlier this week, because of rookie salary cap ramifications, it can be very tough to make happen.
I just don't see any team being able to pony up the picks to make the deal worthwhile to the Patriots. The #2 overall pick comes in at 2600 "points" under the classic draft value pick chart, and matching that is a very difficult thing to make happen. While multiple trade downs could happen, it can be tough to make that a reality when the clock is ticking on draft day, particularly with the truncated time allowed per pick.
I learned a long time ago to never say never, and I could see the Pats trading down, but not outside of the top five. But there are four weeks remaining, and if the 49ers suddenly catch fire down the stretch, things could change considerably. So we'll see.
So when was the last time a team so good had a pick so high? In the NFL, I think the answer is: never. In pro sports, the NBA in 1986 immediately comes to mind, when the Celtics held the #2 overall pick that originally belonged to the Seattle Supersonics. This has crossed my mind before, and I hate to bring it up because of the horribly tragic turn of events that took place, with Maryland forward Len Bias (the player selected in that spot) dying from a cocaine overdose less than 48 hours after being selected.
My best guess is that, if the Patriots end up holding the #2 overall pick and decide to trade down, it will be with the intention of landing Michigan OT Jake Long. Linebacker and corner are likely the two greatest needs that the Pats will have going into the off-season, but to stretch to take either one at even the #5 spot (via a trade down) would seem unlikely... but not impossible, particularly if Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis declares for the 2008 NFL Draft.
The Jets being involved in the top five could have an impact as well. The odds of those two teams making a deal is highly unlikely, though if the Raiders and Broncos could make a trade (as they did earlier this year), nothing is impossible. But I strongly suspect that the Patriots would take Darren McFadden at #2, not only to add him to their strong offense, but also to prevent the Jets from obtaining him.
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