|
National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 5, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Chad Pullen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 5, 2007 3:10 PM
Subject: Taylor's worth
Hey Lou, love the site as always. As a Dolphin fan, you can imagine I’ve been checking more frequently than usual. I was wondering about some of the chips we may have to add picks in the draft. I believe we gave up a 5th for Green and then added a second for Chambers. Ricky getting hurt kills me because I was hoping to move him and get something n return. Anything, ANYTHING, would have been great for a 31 year old whose one step away from being outta the league again. I would have taken a 3rd, 4th, 5,th, a 4th rounder in the year 2020, I don’t care. But what I really want to know is, what would the value be for Jason Taylor? Could we get a first rounder for him, could we get multiple picks, i.e. a 2nd and a 4th, something like that? I don’t want him to waste away much like what we’re seeing with Zach Thomas, I think the Dolphins should make the move and the true fans would understand and would welcome getting something in return. Jimmy always said that he wished he would have moved Marino when he still had value. Now that move would have killed every fan on earth, but as much as we love Taylor, we know that by the time the Dolphins are good again, he won’t be around anyways, so might as well stock some picks get a lot younger and move back up a little bit quicker. Thanks for the great info, lookin forward to the draft.
Lou: The facts: Jason Taylor is 33, and he'll turn 34 in early September 2008. Under his current deal, Taylor has two years remaining, for $7.5 million in 2008 and $8 million in 2009.
From a financial standpoint, Taylor could be traded without hitting Miami hard on the salary cap, since his last two years are base salary loaded. But the question is: what would the value for a 34 year old defensive end be on the open market? The Dolphins landed a second rounder for Chambers, but he's 29 and the Chargers were in dire need of a veteran receiver.
Taylor is an outstanding player, a disruptive force from the end position who has played hard despite being part of a team free-falling through an 0-12 start. He already has eight sacks in 2007, three in the past two weeks, and since 2000 he has had at least 8.5 sacks per year... every year. That is consistency.
Time is cruel to all, and to look at a comparable situation, consider how Simeon Rice went from being a dominating sack machine in 2005 to hitting the wall and being bounced from the Bucs, the Broncos, *and* the Colts. To be sure, everyone is different, but Rice is only about six months older than Taylor.
Early draft picks are like gold, and I would be floored to see the Dolphins land anything beyond a fourth round pick for Taylor. If they could snooker a team into giving up a second *and* a fourth rounder for him, I'd be shocked. But short of that, the ill will that such a move would cause in an already depressed fanbase, coupled with losing a player who has been a career-long member of the Dolphin organization, would likely be a lose-lose situation.
Keep in mind that in the NFL, with its system of parity, the Dolphins could bounce back quicker than people think. John Beck will have a chance to step up as the new team QB, going through a full off-season of training and practice as the number one guy. Ronnie Brown is coming off of a torn ACL, but if he can recover (and it's not nearly the career killer that it used to be), he is still a top notch talent. Ricky Williams is on the wrong side of 30, but maybe squeezing another year out of him is possible with an off-season of training and working out with the team.
The young WR talent in Miami will have every opportunity to improve, and if the Dolphins do the smart thing and draft LSU DT Glenn Dorsey to stop the run, along with having Zach Thomas coming back from his concussion (which put him on IR) and landing whoever they can get in the second round with the two picks they hold there, things can flip around faster than you might think.
From: A. Jason Ciano
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 5, 2007 3:07 PM
Subject: mock observations.
I like your mock a lot and I noticed something that I missed writing my own mock.... Colt Brennan, Think about this, To Detroit, how perfect he would fit in that system!!!! CAN you say cha CHING...
Lou: I strongly suspect that the Lions won't take Colt Brennan. They just used a second round pick on Michigan State QB Drew Stanton in the most recent draft, and while Stanton has been hurt, he's been there to learn and develop his own skills relative to the Detroit system.
That's not to say that Brennan wouldn't be a good fit with the Lions, but with an anemic rushing game and a clear need at corner, I would be surprised to see Detroit end up with Brennan, short of him free-falling in the draft like Troy Smith did after the BCS Title game fiasco.
It's true that Lions starting QB Jon Kitna will turn 36 in September of next year, and depth at the position will be needed, but I don't see Brennan being in the cards there.
Consider this: Derek Anderson is a restricted free agent, though I expect the Browns to make it cost prohibitive for any team to land him -- at least not this year. But Detroit could land one of a number of impending free agents to be, from Rex Grossman to Daunte Culpepper to Josh McCown to Mark Brunell, to stabilize the situation until Stanton is ready to take the job for himself.
As far as Brennan's draft status goes, I could see him going in the early to middle of the second round. If they pass on a QB in round one, the Vikings may take a shot at him in round two if he's on the board when their pick comes up.
NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
Draft King is owned and operated by Lou Pickney. Copyright © 2003-2025, all rights reserved. Information on this website should not be used for any gambling purposes, nor does it constitute any sort of advice, financial or otherwise.
| 