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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 14, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
First off, as I posted on the main Draft King page earlier today, Louisville WR Mario Urrutia has announced his plans to apply for early entry into the NFL Draft. The 6'6" 220 pound wide receiver is the first prospect that I know of with remaining NCAA eligibility to make a definitive statement about his plans. Urrutia has signed with the JL Sports agency, based out of Branford, CT, so there's no turning back now.
 | Mario Urrutia must keep his eyes on the ball. (Gary Rothstein/Icon SMI)
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Urrutia has struggled this year, suffering from a turf toe injury that limited his mobility and kept him out of action toward the middle of the year. His height cannot be ignored (6'6" receivers have a huge advantage over 5'10" or so corners), but he will be challenged to improve his speed in order to crack the top three rounds. He likely would have been better off entering the 2007 Draft based on how strong his redshirt sophomore 2006 season turned out versus 2007, but hindsight is 20/20. Urrutia suffered at times this year from dropped passes and foolish penalties, but when he's on, he can be a real difference-maker.
It's hard to tell what we might see out of Urrutia, particularly early on in the NFL. A team needing WR depth but not needing a blazer might be tempted to take a shot at him. In three or four WR sets, it's possible that some teams might use a speedy LB to cover him out of the slot, and an accurate passer should be able to take advantage of his height in such situations. That makes it all the more vital that Urrutia overcome his problem with dropping passes.
His individual workout(s) will be critical for him, as will his combine experience. Can he run a sub 4.6 40? We'll find out. Personally, I would have liked to see him return to Louisville for 2008, but I can't blame him for making the move that he believes will be best for him and his situation.
From: Scott Anonymous
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 14, 2007 3:21 AM
Subject: Texans 1st rd
Dunta Robinson reportedly completely tore his hamstring off of the bone in the Texans' game against the Raiders, as well as his ACL. The Texans can forget about having Dunta on the field next year. That combined with the fact that the Texans are coached by Gary Kubiak and the running back depth this year is pretty significant makes me think that the Texans won't take someone like Felix Jones in the first round.
|  | The Texans face a tough challenge in replacing CB Dunta Robinson. (Bob Levey/Icon SMI)
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Lou: There is something especially horrific about the sound of Robinson's injury. A torn ACL, okay, that's something you can recover from, maybe not back to 100% by next year, but at least well enough to play.
But a torn hamstring where the phrase "torn off of the bone" comes into play? That is not something anyone ever wants to hear. Robinson received a second opinion on his injury from renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews, and he had Andrews perform the surgery this past Monday in Birmingham, AL.
Estimates that I've read put his return timetable at "nine months to a year", and that doesn't take into account what he'll have to do once he comes back to return to the level he had prior to the injury. Expecting a healthy Robinson in top form in 2008, even by late in the year, might be hoping for too much.
For the Texans, it hurts not only because Robinson, 25, was a great defensive leader, but also because 2008 is the final year of his contract, a year in which he is slated to make just $545,000 (and where he will be entering unrestricted free agency.) Compare that with Ahman Green's huge contract, and he was a clear bargain on a team with a deceptively effective (and young) defense.
The key to replacing Robinson may not come via the draft, though, at least not in the first round. Even an experienced, talented corner like Malcolm Jenkins or Terrell Thomas will need time to adjust, particularly in a conference where the Texans face Peyton Manning and Vince Young twice each every year. But that may end up being the best option for Houston.
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The problem with free agency is that to acquire an effective corner, one who can meet or exceed Robinson's output, the Texans will have to pay big money. New England CB Asante Samuel is going to attract top dollar on the open market (much like Nate Clements did this past off-season) since he is franchise-proof, and even a player like Seattle CB Marcus Trufant will command a decent signing bonus if he doesn't re-sign with the Seahawks and if Seattle doesn't use its franchise tag on him.
It may very well come down to Houston deciding if it can land a capable, under-30 corner in free agency, and if not then weighing the options of CB and RB relative to the draft and what players are projected to what spot. The Texans traded their 2008 second round pick to Atlanta earlier this year in the Matt Schaub trade, though they might be in a position to trade down and possibly land a pair of second round picks. Strangely enough, the more the Texans win, the more difficult such a trade would become, since the value of Houston's first rounder would continue to drop.
A surge of junior RB talent entering the draft could very well influence the Texans to try to turn their first rounder into two second rounders and then go
RB/CB or some combination therein.
Alternately, Houston could land an older veteran corner in free agency, go RB in round one, use a third rounder on a raw but high-potential CB, and try to work the two together while it closely monitors the recovery process for Robinson.
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