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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 13, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Canter Family
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 12, 2007 9:13 PM
Subject: My thoughts and opinions on the 08 draft
Miami will not go after McFadden, Ronnie Brown is a great back, before he got hurt this year he was LEADING THE LEAGUE IS YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE!! and was having a great season. This was the 1st year that Miami's O-line didn't look completely awful like years in the past. (hints why Ronnie Brown was having so much success).
I see Miami doing 2 things. They try and trade the 1st pick or they draft Glenn Dorsey. But I wouldn't be surprised if they draft a QB like Brian Brohm. Cam Cameron is not pleased at all with the QB's he has now, and I don't blame him. He knows he screwed up passing on Quinn last year, and he will correct it this year.
What's up with all the hype for Matt Ryan? I watched a lot of his games this year and watched him throw like 17 INT's he makes too many mistakes and tends to hold the ball too long. He did have a great senior year but he is clearly not the best QB in this years draft. Brian Brohm and Andre Woodson are more consistent, make fewer mistakes and make bigger plays than Matt Ryan, and anyone can agree to that. Please explain to me why Matt Ryan is so over hyped?
I see you have the Panthers taking Kenny Phillips. That wouldn't be a bad pick for Carolina. But if any of the 3 QB's are left Carolina should take one, Delhomme isn't getting any younger and the backups there suck.
Lou: Ronnie Brown was one of the few bright spots on the moribund Dolphins team this year, but a torn ACL is a serious injury. Medical technology has advanced tremendously on repairing knee ligaments, and I think of the modern era beginning with Terry Allen being able to continue his career after suffering *two* torn ACLs in the early-mid 1990s. But, in almost all cases, the first year back is challenging for the player involved. It's just the nature of the beast, from the psychological impact to the inability to keep up a normal workout routine due to needing to protect the knee during rehab.
|  | Ronnie Brown suffered a torn ACL in his right knee on October 21, 2007. (Doug Murray/Icon SMI)
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In my personal view, it would be a major mistake for the Dolphins to pass on Glenn Dorsey, given their severe need to stop the run. But McFadden has captured the imagination of NFL fans worldwide, and should he opt to enter early (almost a certainly barring Bobby Petrino instantly proving his worth at Arkansas by talking him into returning for his senior year), there should be at least some consideration to be given by the Dolphins. Remember, if Miami doesn't draft him, he will likely end up on either the Patriots or the Jets, which creates a unique dynamic.
But, in the end, I think Dorsey will be the man for Miami, presuming he avoids any severe injuries between now and April and that he's able to recover from the nagging injuries that kept him at less than 100% from the Auburn game on by the time the combine and LSU pro day workouts arrive.
As for the Dolphins taking a QB, that would be shocking given that they used a high second round pick to acquire BYU QB John Beck in the 2007 Draft. What will be interesting that hasn't been discussed much is what the chances are of Trent Green being able to recover from his second severe concussion in two years and, if he does return, if he'll be used as a backup to Beck or if the two will compete for the job in camp.
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Matt Ryan vastly improved as a quarterback from 2006 to 2007. He has NFL quality size (6'5" 225) and vastly improved accuracy compared with years past. He doesn't have a Jeff George arm, but he is very intelligent and should be able to grasp the NFL passing game without too much trouble. Sometimes he tries to force passes into tight quarters, and down the stretch that started to catch up with him. He threw two or more interceptions in five of the final six games of the year, including the ACC Title game.
But despite some flaws, Ryan is a smart, fearless QB who has great leadership skills. I personally like Andre Woodson better because of Woodson's accuracy, but both are talented, high-end QB prospects (as is Louisville QB Brian Brohm), and all three have the makings of being excellent pros.
For comparison's sake, here are the 2007 stats for the "Big Three" QB prospects, along with wild card Colt Brennan (the likely #4 QB prospect):
Matt Ryan: 366 of 607 passes, 4,258 passing yards, 28 pass TD/18 INT
Andre Woodson: 295 of 468 passes, 3,351 passing yards, 36 pass TD/10 INT *
Brian Brohm: 308 of 407 passes, 4,024 passing yards, 30 pass TD/12 INT
Colt Brennan: 337 of 472 passes, 4,174 passing yards, 38 pass TD/14 INT
* Woodson threw 325 straight passes in 2006-2007 without throwing an INT, an NCAA record
From: Cozea Stephens
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 13, 2007 5:25 PM
Subject: From a Charger fan
|  | Michael Turner will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. (Nick Doan/Icon SMI)
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I think we (Chargers) would be better off getting a replacement for DT Jamal Williams. Without a dominant D-tackle in the middle of our 3-4 defense, the Adrain Petersons of the world will have huge games against us. Jamal (10 year pro) has had knee injuries and comes out in pass situations. Also, Michael "Burner" Turner will be lost to free agency and with LT entering his 7th year, RB would not be a bad idea. He was already on 60 minutes saying he would leave before the game beat him up to wear he couldn't walk.
Jus thought that might help you in at least the evaluation of our pick. Personally I think we should trade down for more picks like you said.
Lou: The luxury of having Michael Turner as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego ends this year, and it is strongly anticipated that Turner, a pending unrestricted free agent, will be working as a starting RB on another NFL team in 2008.
The challenge for the Chargers is that they likely won't be in a position to land a good value RB in the Round 2-4 range, since they only have their first round pick before waiting until Round 5 for the next pick. Perhaps they'll bring in a free agent RB to fill the backup role; Tomlinson has been incredibly durable thus far in his career, but all it takes is one play to change everything.
As for Williams, the way the Chargers kept rotating him out in Sunday's game against the Titans was telling. But, as I mentioned earlier this week, San Diego has good DT depth in Ryon Bingham (6'3" 303) and Brandon McKinney (6'2" 320), so I would think that they'll look elsewhere to fill other needs.
Realistically, ILB is probably going to be the best target position, but it really makes a great deal of sense to move down... unless an ILB who the Chargers are strongly sold on falls to their spot. That and interior offensive line look like realistic options, which is why trading down out of the first round might make a great deal of sense.
Consider this: on the "pick value chart", the #24 pick is worth 740 points. A high second and third round pick (think the seventh or eighth pick of the round) would balance out about even points-wise. Of course, it requires an interested team to make it happen, but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see it take place. The options are wide open for the Chargers.
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