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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
November 18, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
This past Saturday, I attended the Mississippi State/Arkansas game at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, Arkansas. It was a non-televised game (surprisingly), so many people across the country may have missed seeing any highlights from it, but Darren McFadden made an incredible impression on me that I will address in depth tomorrow. Also, Marcus Monk has great size at 6'6", and while he still isn't 100%, he showed me yesterday that he could be a major sleeper pick in the draft for a team looking for a first-round caliber wideout in rounds two or three.
But, while I was gone, the mailbox filled up. Let's take a look at what's inside...
From: Samer Ismail
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Nov 16, 2007 11:11 AM
Subject: Pats tackles
Matt Light has an essentially untradeable contract, but their RT, Nick Kaczur, is still on his rookie deal (his cap hit this year is <$1M), so there's no fundamental reason the Pats couldn't draft an OT. In fact, some Pats draft-watchers could see the Pats drafting Jake Long, and sliding Matt Light over to RT.
Lou: That is a fair assessment of the situation. Look at what happened to the Colts when they lost Tarik Glenn at offensive tackle to retirement and then standout rookie OT Tony Ugoh to injury; it wrecked the team's entire offense.
Moreover, considering the relative needs of the Patriots and the ratings of players toward the very top of the draft, that move makes a great deal of sense. It would mean more money invested at offensive tackle than the Pats may want, but if you're going to do that, bringing in a player with Jake Long's ability may be a worthwhile move.
From: Daniel Jakubowski
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Nov 17, 2007 4:55 PM
Subject: A GUY YOUR MISSING
If DE - Vernon Gholston from Ohio State comes out early, he should go around the # 10 spot in the 1st round. Out of all the mock Draft sites, I mostly agree with your selections. You have a keen eye for talent has I do, and I would expect Gholston to keep creeping up the boards, or flying up the boards is more like it. I could only wish that the Detroit Lions could land this guy, but I would settle for Quentin Groves also. Keep up the great work...
Lou: Gholston has arguably boosted his draft status more than any other defensive player in the second half of the season. After being hyped coming into the season (and at one point holding a spot in the Draft King first round), he slid down the list a bit.
But with a dominating four sack performance against Wisconsin, and a great game against Michigan this past Saturday (lined up in many cases against elite offensive tackle Jake Long), Gholston has likely played his way into the first round, should he opt to leave school early for the NFL.
From: Scott Anonymous
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Nov 18, 2007 10:39 PM
Subject: Rashard Mendenhall
Could you comment on what this article from the Chicago Tribune has to say about Mendenhall?
"The junior would be crazy not to declare himself eligible for the draft. He could be a top 15 pick, and might be the second running back taken depending on other juniors who might come out. Mendenhall is big, physical, tough and fast. He runs with good pad level and breaks tackles."
Is that even close to realistic? I was thinking he's likely to be a 2nd-round pick, even if Felix Jones decides to stay in (which I think he will, unless he knows for sure he can put up huge combine numbers).
Lou: While Rashard Mendenhall has had a very impressive season, I don't believe that he will be a top 15 pick. If it was just Mendenhall and Mike Hart in the top tier, that would be one thing. But consider the volume of high-end junior RB prospects: Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Ray Rice, and Steve Slaton are all potential early entry guys. And even players like Texas RB Jamaal Charles and breakout UCF RB Kevin Smith may decide to opt for the NFL Draft.
McFadden is a lock to come out (his mother indicated as much in an interview) and be a likely top five selection barring injury. There are too many variables involved with the various junior RBs who may or may not come out to make a definitive judgment at this point, but Mendenhall has a legit shot to be a first round pick. Top 15 may just be too high to place him, even in a best-case scenario, at this point.
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