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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
October 17, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Scott Anonymous
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Oct 11, 2007 10:14 PM
Subject: Bills taking Long? and other questions about your current picks
I love your site, so please do not take the following as anything more malicious than construct criticism.
I was curious as to why you have the Bills taking Jake Long... many people in the league seem to be impressed with Jason Peters, their current left tackle who is in his 3rd year, I believe.
I agree with your logic on Brohm to the Falcons, but of course we all thought the Falcons would take Amobi Okoye too, didn't we?
Jerry Jones is from Arkansas, and Darren McFadden looks like Adrian Peterson without the freak injuries, so it's possible that the Cowboys take him. But I personally believe that Marion Barber III is a complete back and could handle the load by himself, and that using a high first rounder on another running back might not be the best decision. But I'll buy that the Cowboys could take him. At first I thought you tried to shoe-horn McFadden to the Cowboys, but really, I don't see any teams you have picking above them deciding they need a stud RB, either.
I think the Raiders taking DeSean Jackson would be a Miami-now-selects-Ted-Ginn type of error, especially with Sam Baker still on the board. If the logic for Brohm to the Falcons works, why not Baker to former USC coach Lane Kiffin's Raiders? They could justify it by explaining that they need to protect Russell as well.
Every game I've seen Quentin Groves play in, I have been thoroughly impressed. Him as a 3-4 outside backer makes perfect sense to me - I don't know if I've seen a better prospect for that position, but then again, I don't do this sort of thing as much as you do.
I don't know if the Patriots select a cornerback as early as you have them. I think they'd be foolish not to sign Samuel to a long-term deal. You pay for quarterbacks and cornerbacks in this league, since finding an elite one is like hitting a gold mine in your backyard. Asante Samuel isn't an over-rated loud mouth like Dante Hall, and I'm sure he's very fond of winning Super Bowls.
Do you really think the Lions would take a RB in the first round, especially one like Slaton, with Mike Martz calling the plays? They run the ball about 15 times a game or less, it seems, and with Reggie Bush making Charlie Casserly look smart, I would imagine teams would be hesitant to take a flashy-but-undersized running back like that.
I like the Ravens taking a cornerback with the resume you have assigned to him. I don't know much about that player myself (Justin King), but I am a big fan of guys who have done what they're supposed to be capable of over a long period of time.
I also like Kenny Phillips to the Eagles. Lots of teams could use a safety like that.
Another pick I like is the Bengals taking a linebacker. Marvin Lewis recently has make comments about wanting a better scouting staff and a real, live General Manager. Weren't they trying to play 2 signed-off-the-streets linebackers against the Patriots a week or two ago?
I bet Keith Rivers' stock slides even higher.
I absolutely love the Bears taking Matt Ryan. Seems like that guy is doing a lot with very little, and after Notre Dame went to the pits with the loss of Brady Quinn, a wide receiver that plays minor league baseball, and a running back that is signed the Texans' PRACTICE SQUAD, and pretty much nobody else, I think teams will appreciate a quarterback like Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan could end up as a top-5 prospect, and the Bears, although playing as if Denny Green really did think they were who he thought they were, probably won't end up picking that high.
If there was a prospect worthwhile, I would see the Chargers taking a safety or a wide receiver before taking a linebacker, especially with Merriman and Shaun Phillips. But it doesn't look like that is available. The talent level seems to water down at this point in the draft.
I like the Bucs taking a cornerback, especially since Ronde Barber is (A) old and (B) over-rated.
I would think the Packers would rather reach for a running back than take a cornerback. They can't get along forever on Charles Woodson and Al Harris, but I think running back is a bigger need.
Lou: Jason Peters has done a good job fighting his way into the starting left tackle job, but a more natural fit like Long would be better for the team long-term.
As for the Falcons, Byron Leftwich is starting this week for the team, and clearly the Joey Harrington experiment has not worked. Brian Brohm seems like such a natural to bring in, since he already knows the Petrino system. Brohm has dropped under the radar a bit since Louisville's defense has struggled so much, but he is quietly having a great year, even with Harry Douglas having injury issues and Mario Urrutia dropping so many passes.
When it comes to doing the mock, I try to put players where I think they are most likely to go, not what works as the most convenient fit. With today's update, I now have Darren McFadden going to Oakland, just out of the reach of Dallas.
I concur about DeSean Jackson being a potential Ted Ginn, Jr. type of player. For now I've dropped him down, but ultimately that speed of his might end up tempting a team to take him in a higher spot. I'm personally very high on Adarius Bowman and Early Doucet and not as much on Jackson, but Jackson is a playmaker.
A good RB for Detroit only makes the Lions that much more dangerous. We'll see how Kevin Jones does returning this week, but ultimately a high end RB prospect like Slaton would be a good addition for the team.
Cincinnati taking a linebacker makes a great deal of sense, especially with the depth that will be in this draft at LB (even if the big-name juniors don't come out), but if the Bengals sign Caleb Miller to an extension that could change things.
New England is a pretty good candidate for trading down. If they have a top five pick they'll probably keep it (since dealing out of there can be tough), but otherwise them trading down would be very much in keeping with typical smart Patriots GM maneuvering. With the exception of letting Adam Vinatieri go, that team has been very savvy with how it has handled its roster in the past 6-7 years.
As for Matt Ryan to the Bears, I think he'd be the right QB for that team to take thinking long-term. But on the early evening SportsCenter tonight, Todd McShay ranked Ryan *above* both Brohm and Woodson, and Mel Kiper has moved Ryan into the #1 QB spot. I don't personally think he's that high up, but clearly Ryan is making positive impressions with many people. I still think he forces a few too many passes to be even with (or above) Brohm/Woodson, but at 6'5" and with a strong arm, Ryan is genuine first round material.
With the Packers, imagine how good they'd be if they had ended up with Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch? They didn't have the opportunity to draft either player, but perhaps someone like Felix Jones or Tashard Choice could end up going to Green Bay. But by the same token, Green Bay might see the talent on the board at corner late in round one and decide to take one of the several choices that would likely be there for them.
From: David N. Emerson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Oct 14, 2007 11:05 AM
Subject: Steelers pick
What should the Steelers do with their pick now?
I said before the season (in an email to you), that they should reload the Offensive line, but now they've resigned Kendall Simmons and Willie Colon took the RT spot from Max Starks. They still need a replacement for Faneca. Left Tackle is not an immediate need and Center is set for a while. So any pick there would be either a Faneca replacement (doesn't LSU (Faneca's school) have 2 guards coming out this year) or for depth. What are the good guard prospects at guard? Michael Oher seems big for a tackle is he a guard or just that big of a tackle?
Do they go RB? Jonathan Stewart looks so much like a perfect fit for Steelers, but do they need it? Parker is doing well this year and Davenport (I dissed him last time) seems to be doing really well as a backup and even Gary Russel is showing talent.
Do they go WR? Santonio Holmes is the only young great receiver. Ward is clearly showing his age. Nate Washington is extremely talented for an undrafted player, but will he ever get past being a slot receiver? Cedrick Wilson is at best a good slot man and mediocre punt returner. Willie Reid has a lot of talent, but has to avoid the injury bug and learn how to catch a punt. So do they get someone to go in the future on the other side of Holmes?
Now for the defense. No one on the Defensive line is exactly young, but I think drafting their would be only for the purpose of switching to a four man front, which is possible. The Defensive line is amazing at their jobs (since they are 3-4 they put no stats up, but Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith are about as good as it gets Keisel is great too)
Linebacker was heavily addressed last season, but might not be a bad thing to address again. Haggans probably won't be back, and Farrior is getting up there is years. They also have little depth behind the starting unit, especially if Haggans leaves.
Secondary has not been our strength in a long time. Ike Taylor is doing well this season, but he is still very risky at times. He seems to be either a shutdown corner or a very very lost rookie. Deshea is solid, but age is catching up with him. Bryant McFadden will take over for him though with ease. Free Safety seems well covered, but their is room for improvement. Ryan Clark is good enough and Anthony Smith is a good backup who will take that job soon enough. Strong Safety is set for at least half a decade barring injury.
I don't know where to go anymore. Everything seems pretty well covered. Our pick is basically entirely dependent on free agency. Losing Faneca would hurt a lot, but supposedly Chris Kemoeatu is going to take that job. The whole O line is good, but everyone could be improved on. I don't know what the Steelers should pick.
One other question maybe its me, but it seems like a lot of NFL teams need QBs. Miami, possibly Buffalo (doubt it), Atlanta, maybe Minnesota, maybe Kansas City, Chicago, Carolina, and Jacksonville. Of those Miami, and Atlanta are in dire need.
Lou: The Steelers are in a pretty good spot when it comes to the draft and having many options. You're right that free agency can (and will) change things, not only for the Steelers but for every team in the league. But at this point, my approach is to look at where a team's needs exist and try to best figure who they might take at a given position.
Michael Oher is an unusual player in many ways, and for his sake I hope he spends another year at Ole Miss to further learn the left OT position. But if he comes out, however raw he might be, he would provide Pittsburgh with depth and with huge potential long-term at the left offensive tackle spot. Tennessee OT Eric Young is an OG/OT tweener who I've been high on Pittsburgh taking for awhile, and he might ultimately be a better fit for the Steelers than Oher.
The draft will be so deep at corner that Pittsburgh might decide to indulge with a corner in round one, but it's not like that's a huge need for the Steelers.
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