Lou Pickney's 2025 NFL Mock Draft

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From: Scott Anonymous
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Oct 11, 2007 9:47 PM
Subject: Texans, other draft questions

Lou - I have followed your site for 2+ years now and still keep my eye on it, even during times like this, when it's only 6 weeks into the NFL season.

First, I am pretty excited about my Texans. They're probably going to end up as a 7-9 or 9-7 team, but I'll take that this year.

I remember Sam Baker and Jake Long being high on your list last year, until they declared that they were going to stay in college. As a Texans fan, I keep an eye out for these guys on draft board lists, but I haven't gotten to see much college football this year. CNNSI.com's All-America team had Sam Baker on their second team, and I was wondering if this sort of perception of Sam Baker was popping up elsewhere. Even you have Boston College's left tackle going before Sam Baker. Last year I was thinking, if he declared, he was a sure-thing top-10 pick, based on what other people were writing. But after USC lost to Stanford, is his stock dropping? It seems like a lot of the people that end up making the calls on draft day end up having knee-jerk reactions to big losses like that, such as Brady Quinn falling to 21st (or wherever it was), even though his Notre Dame's defense allowed roughly 98034 points a game. I guess what I'm hoping for is Sam Baker to be an elite left-tackle but to get downgraded enough so that he falls to the Texans in what I anticipate will be a 15-20th overall pick. I know that sometimes these guys overlook the obvious and tend to focus on the silly things, like "Can he win the big game?" type stuff.

Slightly related to this, I wanted to ask you if you knew why the NFL Draft Combine doesn't have prospects perform repetitions of 225lbs (or even 315) for squats? This would be much more useful to scouts than a bench-press number would be, as bench-presses don't really translate to the football field as well as squats do. Linemen would definitely be able to be judged off of this. I would suppose it's because of all the speed drills later in the week, but the easy solution to that is to just give the prospects a 4-day period after the squatting to do their speed drills. Do you know who decides what exercises are employed?

Lastly, I wanted to see if you think a team would ever forfeit a top-3 pick, or would pass intentionally (not like the Vikings accidentally did a few years ago) in order to be able to pay a more reasonable price for a prospect that has never played a down in the NFL. Profootballtalk.com has been calling for the NFLPA to do something about these rookie salaries, and I completely agree with the editors of that site.

The fact that JaMarcus Russell makes nearly as much as, or maybe even MORE than Peyton Manning does is ridiculous. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback of the past 20 years and 28 (or more) other teams in the league would love to kick their QBs to the curb to have Manning on their squad. Yet Russell hasn't played a down in the league. Sure, he could turn out to be like Carson Palmer or Peyton and be worth it, or he could end up like Kyle Boller and just be very good at throwing the ball very far when no one is rushing 6 at him. What's even funnier is that, before the Colts won last year, Peyton was occasionally criticized for his large contract, with critics citing it as a reason the Colts' defense didn't play well.

The Raiders were in a crappy spot, almost as crappy as the Texans were two years ago. The Raiders absolutely had to take a QB, at least to please the fans (although obviously the Texans didn't follow that route). Joe Thomas or Gaines Adams would have just gotten them compared to the Texans. I wonder which would be a bigger PR blunder - taking someone like Mario Williams #1 overall over Reggie Bush and Vince Young, or "forgetting" to turn in your draft card for 3 or 4 slots until you get your franchise QB for significantly cheaper than you would have earlier.

I always wondered why the Texans didn't just pass on their #1 overall selection and then decide to pick Mario Williams before the Packers chose A.J. Hawk.

I know it's a lot of questions... keep up the good work man.

Lou: The AFC South is arguably the toughest division in the NFL. If the Texans can get healthy, then maybe they'll be able to compete for that .500 level area, but it's going to be a tough road. Matt Schaub has been better than advertised, and that's despite the hype he received as Michael Vick's backup in Atlanta. But he needs healthy WRs to throw to, not to mention a stronger running game.

As for the battle for the #2 OT spot behind Jake Long (who is entrenched at #1), there are some who still see Sam Baker as the second-best prospect. In many ways it's too close to call. Baker is a four year starter at USC at left offensive tackle, and he has been outstanding. Meanwhile, Gosder Cherilus moved from the right to the left side this year, and Cherilus has had some adjustments in the interim. But his QB, Matt Ryan, is now a Heisman candidate, and BC is unbeaten.

Physically, Cherilus has the edge at 6'7" 320 vs. Baker at 6'5" 305, but it's not an overwhelming difference. In short, it's close, and will likely remain so barring injury. You might also have Michael Oher in that mix if he wasn't so raw; if he goes back to Ole Miss, he could be the top OT taken in 2009.

Whether it's Cherilus or Baker, either player would be a great addition to a Texans line that could use help. Charles Spencer now appears unlikely to return in 2007, and while he should be back for 2008, offensive line depth is an obvious need for the Texans.

Of course, if Houston ends up at 9-7 as you hope, they probably won't have a shot at drafting either player without trading up.

As for why squats aren't part of the workout requirement, I don't have a good answer for that. It would be nice information to have. My plan is to go to the combine in Indy before the 2008 Draft, so I'll find out what I can there.

The top five of the draft is where the big money is, but obviously the top of the mountain is a big cash spot. All I can say to that is, with a forced negotiation situation (versus all players entering the league as a free agent), there has to be some room for high-end young talent to make some scratch. In almost all negotiations with veteran players, teams are looking for future production, and the high draft picks represent the best of the young with the potential for huge, long-term output.

Also, with few exceptions, NFL contracts are not guaranteed. So while a contract might appear huge, it often includes big numbers for years that would be voided either by a contract extension or by the player being outright cut. The bonus money is what you have to watch closely.

As for a team intentionally letting time run out to get a player in a later slot, the agent for whichever player went to that team would argue that his client should receive payment commensurate with the original slot, so all is would do is irritate the fan base and create more difficult negotiations. Moreover, in a league where the slightest margin can make a difference, giving another team a chance to move in front of you intentionally would seem quite foolish to me.

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