Lou Pickney's 2025 NFL Mock Draft

National Football League
Draft King Mailbag

Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.

**This first e-mail is out of sequence, but it is the most pressing in regards to change involving the draft.**

From: Jason German
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 19, 2007 9:45 PM
Subject: Baseball

Who benifits the most from smarja....... However you spell his name from going with baseball over football? And which nfl team is pissed of the most? You think he will still get drafted ( like drew henson)?

And with such a deep safety class how does brandon rolle from vtec fit in the draft class?

Lou: NFL teams most in need of WRs would, in theory, be the most pissed about Jeff Samardzija's decision to play baseball instead of football. Really, teams drafting in that 15-25 range are the worst off, since even franchises not in need of a WR will face a situation where teams above them have one less player to choose from, thus weakening the pool slightly. Imagine the ripple if the Titans go CB instead of WR because of the move, pulling a corner off the board that would have gone a few spots later potentially to a non-WR needing team.

The winners from this? Ted Ginn, Jr. and Sidney Rice, that's who won. A thinner WR crop makes them all the more valuable, even though they aren't physically the type of receiver that Samardzija was at Notre Dame. Supply and demand, if you will, much like the second-tier QBs benefitted from Brian Brohm going back to Louisville for another year.

Does Virginia Tech have anyone named Brandon Rolle? Perhaps you mean strong safety Aaron Rouse, the 6'4" 230 pound converted linebacker who plays with a mean streak and can lay a hard hit on receivers? Rouse looks to be in that early-middle third round range, though that could improve if he impresses in his workouts. He ran a 4.44 40 in 2002 at V-Tech, and if he can do that five years later, he could work his way into the second round.

Rouse isn't experienced enough to be an immediate starter in all likelihood, but he has tremendous potential.

From: Austin Mabeus
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 17, 2007 3:46 PM
Subject: Packers

For those of you who think the Pack needs to take a RB 1st round, it isn't neccessary. This year's draft is the year of the WR and the Packers need to take advantage of that. With the 16th pick, they'll have the chance to take Jeff Samardzija, Ted Ginn Jr. or maybe even Dwayne Jarrett. Driver isn't getting any younger, and has said he wants to retire with Favre. So who are we going to hand the reins over to after Greg Jennings, Robert Fergusen? There are always good RB's in every draft, but there aren't always good receivers in every draft (2006 for example) like there are this year. For those of you who disagree: potential 2008 RB's: Darren McFadden, Ray Rice, Mike Hart, Steve Slaton, etc. Those guys are just as good if not better than Marshawn Lynch or Kenny Irons, but I can't name anyone in next year's class who compares to Samardzija, Ginn Jr. or Jarrett.

In conclusion, what the Packers need to do this offseason is re-sign Ahman Green to a two year deal as a stop-gap to the RB problem and worry about a RB in 2008. As far as the 2007 draft is concerned, take Samardzija or Jarrett 1st round, a big playmaking safety 2nd round, and a TE 3rd round (possibly Dustin Keller or Scott Chandler). That entire scenario would benefit the Packers in '07 and the future more than taking a RB in this year's draft. You Mr. Draft King, should have Lynch going to the Giants. I know they could use a corner, but they should start looking for someone to compete with Brandon Jacobs.

Lou: We'll see what Green Bay opts to do, but I'd suggest that looking to Ahman Green as the answer at RB this year would be misguided. Green turns 30 next month, and while he did manage to average 4.0 yards per carry in 2006, he is not the same RB who peaked in 2003 with 2,200+ yards combined rushing/receiving and a 5.3 ypc average. The NFL takes a brutal tole on players, and the other side of 30 is typically unkind to running backs.

I think Brandon Jacobs can deliver the goods at RB for the Giants. While a secondary RB to help with the load would be nice to acquire in the draft, I think Jacobs has the skills to be the primary guy for the Giants.

Obviously Samardzija is out now, which may strengthen your argument all the more. However, at this point I strongly doubt that Dwayne Jarrett will be on the board when Green Bay's pick comes up.

From: Michael Littleton
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 18, 2007 3:21 PM
Subject: DALLAS DRAFT

I read some emails from fans on various web sites stating why we shouldn't go O-line with out first pick. First off, we should consider our selves very fortunate if a stud like Blalock fell to us at 22. I ask all the readers to ask them selves if they'd spend a first round pick on Larry Allen if giving the chance. I'm sure the answer is yes. This kid is a massive road grader who is versitile enough to play tackle, but projects better to guard in the pros. Also he plays with that nastiness that Allen played with. Give him a year to learn behind Rivera and we have a stud for the 10-12 years.

My second suggesting is to go ahead and move Henry to FS. He is big and physical and is a great tackler. Plus he actually is a ball hawk, I just think at this point in his career, he is better suited for safety. With his move we could draft a young corner. I personally believe that Leon Hall will be gone by the time we pick, which I am fine with since I consider him the 3rd ranked corner in the draft. I believe the corners should be listed McCauley, Revis, and then Hall. McCauley is a big corner like Henry, but He is much faster and I think has the potential to be a very good corner in the mold of a Chris McCalister. If McCauley played at a big college he would be listed above the rest. Thank yo ufor you time, I hope to get a response from you on my opinions. It'd be greatly appreciated.

Lou: Anthony Henry played some safety at USF (South Florida), and the buzz about his potential move to safety is interesting, though it would seem cost-prohibitive to do anything long-term along those lines with him due to his huge contract.

2007: $3,600,000
2008: $2,600,000
2009: $2,600,000

One thing to consider in this is that Aaron Glenn, who turns 35 in the off-season, is entering the final year of his contract, which could impact how the Cowboys approach their plans for the position long-term.

Leon Hall's stock is falling in some circles, though I'm not sure if he's behind Marcus McCauley at this point. Darrelle Revis' relative inexperience I think will prevent him from moving beyond those two, though Revis has great physical skills.

There's plenty more about Justin Blalock in here; it's far too early to call him the next Larry Allen, but he looks like a great fit for Dallas' offensive line to me.

From: Brian Wallin
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 18, 2007 3:36 PM
Subject: O-LINE (In response to Justin)

I love the site, it is by far the best online, and the most upto date. I truly enjoy the fact that you update at least every couple of days. Now as to Justin from the 1/18 mailbag... O-lineman in the first round can truly be a wonderful thing... Case in point being the 2007 NEW YORK J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!!! It is one thing to get a no-brainer like D'Brickshaw Ferguson, but to use both first round picks on lineman by taking C Nick Mangold at the end of the first round, the Jets solidifed an offensive line that kept Chad Pennington healthy for the first time in a long time. Now not that I am a Cowboys fan by any means, but if (and this is a big if) Terrell Owens has the Star on his helmet next year than by far the biggest need for the Cowboys is to get younger on the offensive line... I personnally love the pick of Justin Blalock to the Cowboys...

Now as to my actual question... as a Packer Fan... I hate the fact that you have possibly the best player in the draft falling to #7 to the hated MN Vikings I pray that this does not happen, I like the pick of Marshawn Lynch as I feel that RB is definitely our biggest need, but I question if he is really that much better than the rest of the RB's that will fall into the second tier, below Adrian Peterson. Guys like Michael Bush, Kenny Irons, Antonio Pittman, Tony Hunt. Could the Packers get better value with say a Kenny Irons in the middle of the second round, or a guy I really like in Dwayne Wright out of Fresno St in maybe the 3rd round. Possibly filling their biggest defensive need of S with a Reggie Nelson, or a Michael Griffin in the first round... Just a thought... Especially since I think that if Brett Favre returns they will try to bring back Ahman Green for one more year anyways.

Lou: I anticipate that Calvin Johnson will be higher on my draft board when I make my next update. He is a spectacular athlete who is a prototype NFL WR in just about every category. It's possible that the Vikings would go with Dwayne Jarrett if Johnson doesn't fall to them, as that Minnesota offense needs a spark at wideout.

I'll have more on Justin Blalock in a bit, but his versatility makes him an ideal fit for the Cowboys, which need depth at offensive line but don't have any one position that is glaring (like the Jets had last year at both center and tackle.)

Marshall Lynch is an excellent prospect, but I think the combine and workouts will help settle some of that debate in the RB 2-5 rankings. Michael Bush may actually be the best of the bunch (besides Adrian Peterson), but where he goes will likely hinge on his health by the time the combine arrives. But consider these stats, culled from various spots online:

Michael Bush: 6'3", 247, 4.5 (pre-injury)
Marshawn Lynch: 5'11", 215, 4.5
Kenny Irons: 5'11", 200, 4.5

If Bush can still run a 4.5, wouldn't he seem like the most appealing pick of the three? If you were playing QB and needed one of the three to pick up a blitzing OLB, who would you want in there?

Bush's injury was the most disappointing one for me of the year, as we were all robbed of seeing some spectacular plays because of it. Such is life.

From: Danny Stone
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 18, 2007 8:51 PM
Subject: Can Matt Millen botch this draft too?

Once again, love the site. I'm not a Lions fan but living in Southwestern Ontario, all I get to see are either the Lions or Bills. (How exciting huh?) Who do you think the Lions take with pick #2? Most people I talk to say whichever QB the Raiders pass on. I'd like to see some help for the band-aid brigade that is their backfield but there are lots of good back in free agency. Whoever picks up Turner from San Diego is truely blessed. I think they trade down a few spots, add some depth and pick a pass rushing end to help that sad defense. What are your thoughts on the Lions?

Lou: Michael Turner is a restricted free agent, so, barring something unforeseen, he'll remain with the Chargers unless another team decides to pony up to get him. Odds would seem to be better for Turner to make his own way as a free agent after 2007, but we'll see.

The Lions would seem to be well off by taking either Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell, but taking a defensive talent like Gaines Adams or Jamaal Anderson still remains a possibility. For all the bashing Millen takes, Detroit's draft last year wasn't bad (OLB Ernie Sims in round one, SS Daniel Bullocks in round two.) Granted, Detroit passed on Matt Leinart to take Sims, but Sims has played well and clearly filled a need there.

Keep in mind that trading in or out of the Top 5 is difficult, so Detroit moving down would likely have to involve Cleveland, Tampa Bay, or Arizona. Arizona might be willing to move up to pick Joe Thomas, so there are possibilities there for movement.

Interesting about the Lions and Bills airing in Ontario -- I really don't know much about the NFL's penetration into Canada. I remember only getting to see one NFL game a week in the fall of 1998 when I was at Harlaxton College in Grantham, England (sometimes with the game on tape delay, which was bizarre), or two if I wanted to stay up ridiculously late to watch the Monday night game; hopefully Canada has it better than that.

From: Michael Littleton
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 19, 2007 11:39 AM
Subject: Cowboys FS

I hear a lot of so called experts saying that Dallas MUST take a FS with their first pick of the draft. I know some of our fans might disagree, but I believe we should at the very least give Patrick Watkins another chance. With a solid off season to develop, I believe we may have found our guy. We already have too much money tied up in the secondary, and need to solidify our O and D lines to be real contenders. We should draft Justin Blalock hands down!

Lou: I agree with your sentiments, not so much because of Patrick Watkins, but because from both a financial and a depth standpoint OL makes the most sense. WR is not out of the question, and I think a player like FS LaRon Landry provides such good value at pick #22 that if he falls, Dallas would have to think long and hard about taking him. But I don't think Landry will fall, so that point is likely moot. Justin Blalock was a four year starter at Texas. He played mostly tackle, but he did play some guard and he has the ability to fill multiple spots, which will make him all the more valuable, particularly early on in his career. His run-blocking is superior, his work ethic is strong, and he certainly has NFL size being 6'4", 330. Some have argued that the Cowboys need to fill other needs, but no one has made an argument that I've seen against Blalock's NFL potential.

From: Billy Rego
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 19, 2007 1:20 PM
Subject: Eagles' Millen-esque pick of another Defensive Tackle?!

Dear Mr. Pickney,
You have a great site with a lot of interesting insights on the NFL draft. However, in this case you've just got to be wrong. In your mock draft of January 19th, you have the Eagles selecting Quinn Pitcock, a defensive tackle. Do you really think that the Eagles would pick a DT in the first round three years in a row?

They took Mike Patterson in 2005 and his contract was just extended. Last year they picked Broderick Bunkley who--although he saw very limited playing time this year--was selected 14th overall. They also picked Lajuan Ramsey in the sixth round and he looked impressive (better than Bunkley, IMO) in the little action he's seen.

I know the run-defense is a huge issue with the team, but DT is a position that has been addressed and hopefully these two young players will develop and live up to expectations. I think linebacker and safety are the biggest areas of concern on the team. Since I'm a Penn State fan, I'd love to see the Eagles get Paul Posluszny. But, given Andy Reid's history, I think that's doubtful. Safety seems most likely, but I'd wouldn't be surprised to see Reid take a defensive end or an offensive tackle (two positions he seems to value quite highly).

And while I'm writing, I wanted to ask you what you think of Penn State running back Tony Hunt. Where do you think he'll go in the draft and how do you think he'll pan out as a pro? I was a big fan of his at PSU and he has great size, quickness, as well as good hands, but he seems to get overlooked because he lacks elite speed.

Lou: Point taken about Philly and the DT spot. Quinn Pitcock's stock has been on the decline since the BCS Title game, and I figured that a team would take him as a value pick if he continued to fall through the first round. But noting Philly's recent draft history, you're right that it's unlikely for them to take Pitcock.

As for Tony Hunt, he has been a bit under the radar, and his speed (4.55) is what could mean the difference between being a day one pick or falling to the 5th or 6th round. At 6'0" 215, he has NFL RB size, but he lacks the agility and explosiveness that many of the other high-end prospects have. Hunt is an excellent blocker, and I'd think that he would find a spot as a third down back, if nothing else.

From: Josh Wooley
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 19, 2007 2:25 PM
Subject: Hi

Whick round do you think Chris Leak, Dallas Baker and Brandon Siler will go in?

Lou: Chris Leak seems like a potential third round pick, maybe second round if he has a great workout. At 6' even, he has the "too short" stigma to overcome (like Troy Smith), though he proved that he is a winner while at Florida. His reported 4.8 40 speed won't help him any, but in the right system he could flourish.

The potential for Dallas Baker is for him to develop as a "possession receiver", but his speed (4.6) is going to hurt him. Overcoming that in college is one thing, but everyone is fast in the NFL, which makes being a step slow a problem. I project him going in the 4th or 5th round.

As for Brandon Siler, I'd look for him to go in round 3 or 4. If he can bulk up just a little more, Siler could fit in well at ILB. His speed (4.8) is a concern if he's going to be expected to cover sideline-to-sideline, but I could see him being used at ILB in a 3-4 and having some success. Despite the 40 time, most consider him to be a "quick" LB, able to react fast and move toward the ball carrier, which is obviously a positive. Siler could end up being an answer for Carolina if the Panthers don't go ILB in rounds one or two.

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