|
National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
January 17, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Chad Pullen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 11, 2007 2:33 PM
Subject: Miami draft
This is my 4th year following your site, thank you for early and frequent updates. My question is regarding Miami constantly taking a D lineman in most of the mocks I have seen. I know that group is getting old, but as 06 showed, offense was their weakness, not the defense. Looking at your latest mock, if Russell manages to move up the board much like Vince young did last year, that would keep Calvin Johnson from being a top 5 pick or so. I know Minnesota would be foaming at the mouth to get him, wouldn’t Miami be smart to trade with Washington and take Johnson, while Washington would get an extra pick or two since they don’t have their 2nd and 3rd? IF and it’s a big if, Culpepper is healthy, having Johnson, Chambers, McMichael, Booker, Brown and another possible return of Ricky Williams, that would be a strong offense. The last few years, Miami has added a couple of younger players to help on D, they just need to grow into roles and start to learn the NFL. Crowder, Roth, Daniels, Allen, those are a couple guys who will help Taylor and Thomas and the rest of the aging cast last at least another year or two.
An even cheaper option and a way to keep all their picks as well, would be to take Jarret, and they could even move down a couple spots to take him.
So, do you think that Miami is locked to go defense with #9, or do I have hope?
Lou: Miami going offense is a possibility. Ronnie Brown has the RB spot secured, and at QB Daunte Culpepper's bloated contract would seem to make taking a QB that high unrealistic (unless Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell fall.) WR is a possibility, though not super-likely with the Dolphins using a day one pick on Arizona State WR Derek Hagan last year. It's possible that Miami could jump on Dwayne Jarrett (or, if he somehow falls, Calvin Johnson.) Offensive line would make the most sense... but the only problem is, who would the Dolphins take at #9? If Joe Thomas is gone (and by all accounts it seems he will be), would Miami snag Levi Jones, even though the team need seems to be more at offensive guard?
Moreover, along with Miami's defensive tackle issues is the impending free agency of DE Vonnie Holliday. Should Holliday, who can also play DT, be signed away, that would make the defensive line that much thinner.
Bottom line: if an offensive player that Miami highly covets is there at #9, the Dolphins could very well go offense. But if not, I think defensive line will be the way they'll go.
From: Anthony Pastore
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 11, 2007 4:28 PM
Subject: (no subject)
First of all I love the site and check it religiously. This recent update has definitely been the best one I've seen this year on your site. For the most part I agree with you but I just have a few questions that I wanted your insight on...
1. I can see why you have Calvin Johnson 7th and I know that there is no way to predict trades but do really think that someone that talented can last that long?? He might be the best WR prospect this century and being a 49er fan I hope Washington takes your advice and trades down so we can slide in front of Minnesota.
2. What do think about Michael Bush from Louisville? This guy was a monster in the preseason and in the first game and a half before he broke his leg. I think if he comes back healthy and has good workouts he would be a great fit for the Jets or Packers.
3. The only player I really disagreed with you on was Tom Zbikowski...do you really think he is a first round player? I watched him this year and ND got beat deep a lot. I understand he's as tough as they come would be a great pick later on but I'm not sure he's athletic enough to be taken in the first round.
4. Lastly, being from NJ, I know how bad the Giant back seven is. They need all the help they can get and I think that Paul Posluszny would be a great pick. I think putting him next to Pierce would go along way toward helping those safeties out. Besides, I watched their bowl game and I swear 31 made every tackle.
Just wanted to hear your thoughts......love the site and keep up the good work.
Lou: It does seem unlikely that a talent like Calvin Johnson will last until #7. San Francisco trading up to get him at #6 would be tremendous for the 49ers. However, there is some thought out there that the Bucs would take him at #3 or #4 (wherever they end up) which is not unreasonable, as Tampa Bay has two second rounders and could splurge on CJ at the top and then fill defensive line needs in round two.
Michael Bush was a solid RB for Louisville, but he will have to prove that he has recovered from his broken leg to be a first round pick. The New York Jets at #26 are a possibility; as valiantly as Leon Washington played at running back this year, the team needs a franchise RB, and Bush could be that guy. I personally like Kenny Irons from Auburn, but his stock has slipped and Bush could potentially go before him. Bush could go toward the top of round two to a team like Oakland.
Tom Zbikowski is going back to Notre Dame, so he won't be in the mix this year. But, in hindsight, he probably wasn't going to be a first rounder barring a great combine and/or private workout.
The idea of Paul Posluszny going to the Giants is intriguing, though I would think that the Giants will look elsewhere in round one. The Giants have tackle-machine Antonio Pierce at MLB, and the OLBs returning will include LaVar Arrington and Brandon Short, who together make a strong LB corps (when all are healthy.) Add to that Carlos Emmons (who had 62 tackles in just 12 games) and it would seem that the Giants are okay at that spot.
From: BACFOUR@aol.com
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 12, 2007 9:24 AM
Subject: Your NFL Mock Draft / Questions
I am a big NFL draft nut, and I always start looking at draft information this time of the year. I saw your updated mock draft, and had a few questions/comments for you:
1) Whats the odds the Raiders trade out of the top spot, perhaps moving down taking another #1 to move down so they can adress more weak spots (how about a trade with Atlanta so that the Falcons could draft Calvin Johnson first overall that gives Oakland either Vick or Schaub)?
2) Great prediction that the 49ers will take USC WR Dwayne Jarrett and that the Packers will take RB Marshawn Lynch. Although most mocks have them both taking a defensive player, I agree with you that WR & RB is more likely both teams picks this year in round 1.
3) Dallas Cowboys -- I like the Justin Blalock pick but what about Reggie Nelson falling to them at #23 ?
4) Carolina Panthers taking a QB? Wouldn't LB Patrick Willis be a better draft pick for Carolina considering Dan Morgan can't stay healthy?
5) I too think Gaines Adams will be the first DE taken, but where do you see DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas, going in the draft (he is not even on your list)?
I could talk draft all day, but I figure you are busy, so I will just leave it at 5 questions?
Lou: It is very difficult to trade into or out of the top five of the NFL Draft. As it is, I think the Vick-to-Oakland trade would be cost-prohibitive to pull off, as I've outlined before. Schaub to Oakland? That is doable, but if Atlanta is hoping to get a first round pick for Schaub, that won't work. If they'd settle for Oakland's second rounder, perhaps they could do business.
The 49ers need a reliable WR target for Alex Smith, and Dwayne Jarrett could do great things for that team. As for Marshawn Lynch to Green Bay, it makes sense that the Packers will do something to fix that glaring RB hole, be it via free agency or, more likely, the draft.
Reggie Nelson to Dallas is interesting in theory, but that would put three Dallas first round picks (Terence Newman, Roy Williams, and Reggie Nelson) in the secondary, along with pricey free agent pickup Anthony Henry. Did you know that Henry's base salary for 2006 was $11,604,840?!? As it is, Henry has said that he is open to moving to free safety in 2007 (presumably allowing Aaron Glenn to move into the other starting CB role), but it remains to be seen how that will play out.
The Panthers could go ILB or OLB in the first round and benefit from it. The team desperately needs depth and youth at the LB position.
As for Jamaal Anderson, I thought that perhaps he would return to school and try to help lead Arkansas to an SEC and/or BCS Title. However, that's not the case, and Anderson has leapfrogged Gaines Adams on my list as the top DE. I'm still a big Adams fan, but Anderson had 13 sacks in 2006, which could make Anderson a replacement for Simeon Rice in Tampa Bay should the Bucs cut or release Rice.
From: John Komidor
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 14, 2007 4:56 AM
Subject: A few problems with your mock draft
-first i think J. Russell is the first player taken. just look at Al Davis' past. he likes QB's with a cannon because he loves to throw it down the field. also, B Quinn's upside is him being nfl ready right away and i "very strongly believe" that the raiders know that they need a few years before they are ready to compete again.
-next, if you say they take Quinn first, Why do you think teams like Det, Cle, TB, Min, and Miami(have two QB's that a lot was spent on but new coaches sometimes want to get THEIR MAN when they come aboard) would pass on Russell.
-also, i dont know if Car has yet given up on Delhome so i think they go S, LB, OL if possible early. i see a QB coming off the board to them in the 3rd or 4th round.
-my last problem is with the saints pick. its going to be later and i dont think willis will be around still. he will be a hell of a LB in the NFL, but the saints have a very pressing matter at CB that must be addressed no matter what. if one isnt there at their pick i see a trade back in the draft. they can make it without a stud LB this year but if they dont fix the speed problem in the secondary the Def will continue to be forced to sit back which is why they are consistantly at the bottom of the league in rush Def year after year.
Lou: After giving the situation further consideration, I came around to your way of thinking with it being Quinn and Russell in the #1/#2 spots. As for being NFL ready, who would Quinn wait behind? Aaron Brooks in the last year of his contract? Andrew Walter?
You do have a point about Al Davis liking QBs with a cannon for an arm (e.g. Jeff George), though it's not like Quinn has a weak arm.
Corner is a concern for the Saints, as was evidenced in the Cincinnati game this year. But there may be other ways to fill that spot (such as free agency or a trade) than drafting a rookie to play the spot right away.
From: PJ Doucette
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 14, 2007 8:28 AM
Subject: Mock comment on 22nd pick (NEP)
I enjoyed your mock. I follow the patriots so I was mostly interested in their picks. It is very difficult to predict what NE will do, anything is possible. I think that this is difficult because they do not draft by need but by value. They have been very consistent in this approach. I think that it is very likely that they will go for DEF if there is value and I agree that the first pick could be a DE but I would think it would be one of the tweener types that can play OLB. Most of the current D-line is signed through 2010.
At 22, since Woodley is gone at 21, I think that they would take Quentin Moses. (outside chance on Jarvis Moss).
I think that Michael Griffin, S, Texas would be an ideal pick at 28 but I’m hoping that the pats are picking at 32
Lou: Going OLB and secondary with the two first rounders would be quite logical, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Patriots do that. They tend to draft for need, and do so quite well, which makes me think that two blue-chip defensive players could be the way they'll go.
NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
Draft King is owned and operated by Lou Pickney. Copyright © 2003-2025, all rights reserved. Information on this website should not be used for any gambling purposes, nor does it constitute any sort of advice, financial or otherwise.
| 