|
National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
April 23, 2006
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
Before I start with the e-mails, I want to go over the report on ESPN.com about the Texans opening negotiations with RB Reggie Bush and DE Mario Williams. I think the Williams talk is simply posturing by Houston to try to get Bush's price tag down. Williams is going to be a great player, but as a speed DE he fits the 4-3 mold MUCH better than the 3-4. Sure, Houston could turn him into an OLB, but that would be a bizarre thing to do with that #1 pick. Moreover, Houston's glaring need is at offensive tackle, and it actually surprises me a bit that D'Brickashaw Ferguson hasn't become involved in any negotiations (since I would think that they could sign him for less than Bush or Williams based on the position he plays.)
One important thing to note is that the Texans claim that they haven't received any substantive offers to trade up to the #1 overall spot. It looks like at this point, Houston is focusing on signing its target player, who I would suggest is almost certainly Bush.
From: Molly Dodge
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 22, 2006 2:07 PM
Subject: 2006 draft
You don't have a clue about the Dallas Cowboys for the draft this year. First round will be an outside LB (they will trade down and add a fourth round pick), in the second a DT, third round will be OT and fourth round (obtained by trade) WR
They have signed two free agent safeties, resigned Keith Davis and have Justin, a sixth rounder last year coming back from IR.........No way they take a safety in the first round!
Lou: No clue, eh? We'll see on Saturday. The word I hear out of Dallas is that the Cowboys are thinking of moving Keith Davis to strong safety to back up Roy Williams. OLB is a possibility, but remember that they used a first round pick on an OLB just last year. More on this in a bit.
From: James C. McKenzie
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 22, 2006 5:56 PM
Subject: How would you raank these quarterbacks?
Coming out of college, how would you rank all five of these quarterbacks? It seems to me like Jay Cutler is rated better than Smith or Rogers was last year (and he will probably be the 3rd QB taken in this draft).
Alex Smith
Aaron Rogers
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Vince Young
Lou: That would be a stacked QB class. Had Leinart come out last year, there was no question that he would've been the #1 overall pick. Remember that on this site, I predict what I think teams will do, not who I think is the better prospect over another. But since you specifically asked, here's my list:
1. Matt Leinart - He's the prototype great NFL QB. There may be a day where the Saints will regret signing Drew Brees rather than building a team around Leinart.
2. Alex Smith - Some people forget now that he was such a great player coming out of Utah, where he lead Utah to a BCS bowl win under Urban Meyer, got the most out of guys like WR Paris Warren (who I still think has an NFL future, be it in Tampa Bay or wherever.)
3. Jay Cutler - He has all the tools to be a solid NFL QB.
4. Aaron Rodgers - Remember that he was very close to going over Smith to the 49ers for that #1 spot. Ultimately, San Francisco decided that Smith was the better choice for them, and I think that was probably the right choice for the team.
5. Vince Young - Please, no e-mails about this. I'd just say that there's the greatest question, among the five, of Young's mechanics and ability to adjust to the NFL game. No one can doubt his athleticism, savvy, or leadership. All five are (or were) great prospects, and the difference between 2-5 is very small, in my opinion. I just happen to think very highly of Leinart... except for his decision to go back to USC for the 2005 season. But what's done is done there, and he's just that much more experienced going into the pros.
From: Jackson McCarty
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 23, 2006 11:01 AM
Subject: Raiders & Leinert
I have heard a lot of rumors about the raiders maybe trading up to get Matt Leinert. I have also heard about maybe the Titans taking Young and passing on Leinert. So could you tell me if you have heard any of this.
Thanks...Good Mock.
Lou: Expect to hear all sorts of misinformation between now and draft day. Notice how my above list didn't mesh with what the "experts" have been saying? All it takes is for the Titans brass to have Vince Young ranked above Matt Leinart for it to happen. I'd be slightly more inclined to believe that if Steve McNair was in there lobbying for Young behind the scenes, but right now he's not even allowed at the Titans' training facility.
When you consider the problems going on with McNair and the Titans, it seems all the more likely that Tennessee will take Leinart, who seems to be by far the best prospect who's ready to go, if necessary, on day one. I don't think there's been a QB prospect since Peyton Manning who's had that plug-and-play ability, and his familiarity with Norm Chow's offense makes the pairing all the more appealing.
As for the Raiders moving up to get Leinart, they'd have to pay heavy to get New Orleans' #2 pick, which is the only possibility that looks like a legit option at this point. Plus, I get the impression that Oakland would be happy with Young, especially when I read things that say that there's "no way" that Young will fall past Oakland at #7.
From: Paul J. Evans
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 23, 2006 5:11 PM
Subject: Cowboys First Pick...
Hi Lou! I was glad to see you change the Cowboys pick. Not that they don't need to groom some youth at WR, but with the salaries they're paying to Owens and Glenn, I just couldn't see them spending First Round money on yet another WR. Most likely, they will take a WR somewhere in the draft, but not in the first or second. The most obvious choice is a Free Safety (to compete with Keith Davis and Marcus Coleman) or LB (to compete for the Al Singleton/Kevin Burnett OLB spot). Jerry Jones hinted that if a good CB was still available they might take one and shift Anthony Henry to Free Safety where he played one year in Cleveland. So, with all that said, the Cowboys will most likely take the best FS or OLB available (or CB or Nose Tackle if someone really drops!) OR....they will trade down. Personally, I think they'll trade down to the bottom of the first or top of the second to try to get both a FS AND OLB. Of course, since you don't project trades, there's no way to show that. So for your purposes, a safety or LB is the best projection to make! But I applaud you on your website and always enjoy my visits here! Keep up the good work!
Lou: What finally made me change that Cowboys pick was Jerry Jones talking about how the team had spent money on offense and how it was going to look to the draft for defense. Jones is oft lampooned (sometimes rightfull so), but he is a shrewd businessman. However, someone needs to tell him to shut his mouth when it comes to not tipping off what the Cowboys are going to do in the draft. Or maybe not, seeing as it makes my job easier. The night before the 2002 Draft, I vividly recall Jones going on TV and talking about how the team planned to take Williams. I figured it was some Texas-sized bluffing... but then the next day, sure enough, the Cowboys snagged Williams.
It seems highly unlikely that Anthony Henry would be moved to FS from CB, considering that Dallas spend big money to lure him from Cleveland as a free agent in the last off-season. Here's how I see it playing out: if Ernie Sims or Chad Greenway fall to them, they'd be too much to pass up as an OLB who would fit their system well. At this point I don't project that happening, so I see Dallas going to the next best choice, FS, where there will be strong talent on the board (i.e. Jason Allen, Ko Simpson, or Donte Whitner, who I'm projecting to them at this point.)
Trading down is not out of the question, and actually would fit the Cowboys' plans pretty well. Unless there's a FS or an OLB who they have their heart set on (or if they want to be sure that Sims or Greenway won't fall), they could slide down even into the early second round and fill their FS and OLB spots and end up doing alright. OT is a position that I imagine will be considered, and the right WR really should be taken at some point, but it's a matter of what they WILL do, not what I think they should or shouldn't do...
NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
Draft King is owned and operated by Lou Pickney. Copyright © 2003-2025, all rights reserved. Information on this website should not be used for any gambling purposes, nor does it constitute any sort of advice, financial or otherwise.
|