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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
April 2, 2006
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
Before I delve into the mailbag, I have this... John Czarnecki of FoxSports.com reports: "The Saints are definitely trading out of the second spot in the draft, and they are looking for a defensive player." That's pretty cut-and-dry from a wording standpoint. Not "The Saints are looking to trade out from two" or "New Orleans is looking at all options for moving down." It's definitely. Keep that in mind when you're trying to figure out how the players will start falling off the board, as whomever moves to #2 could impact the draft board, sending ripple effects all the way down the line.
From: Nicholas Patterson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 2, 2006 12:33 PM
Subject: The Packers Pick
Hey Lou, love the site and think you have a great grasp on what teams are thinking. I do have one thought though. I understand that Mario Williams is a freak of nature, but with the resigning on Aaron Kampman and KGB already on board, why would the Packers select Williams? If Hawk (the biggest need) is off the board it would make more sense to go with Huff (since Ahmad Carroll is an obvious bust) rather than another DE.
Lou: If Mario Williams falls to Green Bay at #5, I think the proper move would be to slide the 6'4", 278 pound Kampman over to DT (he's been a tweener DE/DT) to take the spot of unsigned DT Grady Jackson, and then have Williams take Kampman's DE position opposite Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.
Packers GM Ted Thompson has made it clear that he's going to rebuild the Packers via the draft, not free agency (the only free agent signed as of this writing this off-season by Green Bay was former Chiefs WR Marc Boerigter), which means it might take a little time to fix the lean secondary and suspect LB corps in Green Bay. Now while that might mean alienating Brett Favre to the point where he retires rather than returns in 2006 (and what a sad ending that would be for Favre's career), it also is a sign that the Packers are thinking long-term and not trying to perform any quick fixes.
So why take Williams, other than his freakish skill and the fact that he might be the best DE prospect since Julius Peppers in 2002? With Williams, Kampman *and* KGB all on the same front four, the Packers would have the legit threat of bringing the heat on every play. Pick up a guy like UTEP OLB Thomas Howard in the second round (very fast, very hard hitter), and suddenly you at least have that angle working for you if you're Green Bay.
From: Wyatt127@aol.com
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 2, 2006 2:33 PM
Subject: JETS DRAFT
WHAT DO U THINK THE JETS DO AT #4? I BELIEVE THAT THE SAINTS WILL TAKE D'BRICK [MAKES TOO MUCH SENSE ..THEY HAVE TWO GOOD DE'S BUT THEIR OLT IS 35 YEARS OLD, AND BRINGING IN FERGUSON TO PROTECT BREES A GOOD INVESTMENT] AND THEREFORE DO THE JETS GRAB MARIO,CUTLER,YOUNG OR POSSIBLY TRADE THIS PICK TO THE BRONCOS FOR THEIR #15 AND #22 [ON VALUE BOARD THIS WOULD BE THE COST] ?
Lou: Two things to note before I actually answer this e-mail. One, if you don't sign a first and last name, and there's not a first and last name in the subject line, your e-mail address will appear on here when you write. I don't want people to think this is something that happens on a random basis; I typically will cover e-mail addresses, but only with a first and last name given. Also, all caps e-mails are annoying, and I'm not going to go through and make them upper/lower or anything. Not to be a prick here; I'm just making a couple of observations. But I will answer all caps e-mails, even if you do "shout" the entire thing (which is what all caps implies.)
If I'm the Jets, I have a list for the #4 spot that reads: Reggie Bush, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Mario Edwards, and Matt Leinart. If through some miracle Ferguson AND Edwards both go before #4, at that point I'd take Leinart. But the odds of Tennessee not taking a QB at #3 seems pretty slim, so I think a list of three would be safe. Forget Bush, who will be gone by #4, and really it comes down to Ferguson and Edwards.
There is great upside to both guys; they're both highly touted prospects, the best at their position in the past couple of years to come out, and both fill a huge need (offensive tackle and defensive end.) There's relative safety in Ferguson being on the board. The Titans could use an offensive tackle like him (though I really set off friends of mine in Nashville, all Titans fans, when I projected Ferguson to them during the 2005 season, before Tennessee jumped to the #3 spot, though Ferguson's steadiness through the off-season has been vindication of my projection to the naysayers who told me all sorts of unkind things about that prognostication.) And, it's not impossible to think that the Texans could leverage Bush in pre-draft negotiations by threatening to take Ferguson, since they have a huge offensive tackle need (they've never really gotten over Tony Boselli not panning out for them in the expansion draft.) But I think it's a pretty safe bet that Ferguson will be on the board at #4.
Williams isn't so simple though, as he could go in that #2 spot. But with the latest news out of New Orleans being that the Saints are definitely trading out of the #2 spot for a defensive player, it seems entirely possible that a team could swoop in there to get Williams. I don't see a team making an extreme jump like that to get Ferguson; it's possible, but unlikely. It's all predicated on what team pulls the trigger and moves up to #2. The Ravens would never do this (at least, I think they wouldn't), but say they traded Ray Lewis to the Saints for the #2 pick, a 2007 fourth rounder, Donte Stallworth, two million strands of Mardi Gras beads, and lifetime VIP access at the Cats Meow for David Modell. The Ravens would be in line to take a QB, one would figure, be it Matt Leinart, Vince Young, or Jay Cutler. Scenarios where a team would trade a defensive player to get a DE seem like a bit of a reach, though, as I can't think offhand of a team that is loaded at LB that can trade one (and a first rounder) to move up to get Williams, great DE or not. As I write this, it seems more and more like a spot where someone would move to get a QB.
At least Jets fans can rest easy knowing that they *should* be able to get one of the two guys who'd be an ideal fit at #4. As for trading down with Denver, the way that the "Pick Value Chart" that you see most commonly shows it, the #4 pick is worth 1800 points. Denver has the #15 and #22 picks, which does put it amazingly close at 1830 total (1050 for #15, 780 for #22.) Usually the team wanting to trade has to give a little more, and if the Broncos are looking to move up, it's not impossible to conceive a situation where Denver trades up during the draft if they really like one of the "Big Three" QBs and that guy is on the board at #4. Maybe the Jets have to throw in a 6th or 7th round pick to balance it out (they're all less than 30 points each, and it would balance the picks at two apiece changing hands), but it's not an impossible thought. I actually hadn't considered that scenario, but it makes sense on many levels. The Jets would give up getting a marquee guy who'd fit a need spot, but they'd receive the #15 and #22 overall picks to do so. And when you're rebuilding, having three first round picks (remember that the NY Jets also have the #29 selection) is a nice way to do that, fast.
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