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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
March 17, 2006
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Ben Jacobs
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mar 15, 2006 12:30 PM
Subject: Your last mailbag
In your last question of the 3/14 mailbag, you talked about how the Lions had taken DeAngelo Hall instead of Mike Williams, Millen wouldn't be as criticized as he currently is. I know it is a little thing, but that was the year of Roy Williams. With the exception of his hands being sometimes there, sometimes not, I think that the Lions fanbase is quite happy with him. I know I am, anyways. But I understand your point. I would rather have seen the Lions take Shawn Merriman last year, or someone of that nature rather than Mike Williams.
Now, onto my real question... Joey Harrington is quite unhappy being in Detroit right now, according to reports. With Jon Kitna onboard, I think its feasible that they drop Joey and take one of the touted QBs, going on the route of Cincinnati with Carson Palmer a few years ago. Could you possibly see them going that way? And, assuming that New Orleans stays in their spot, they probably won't take a QB, leaving one to probably fall a little bit. Do you see one, be it Young or Cutler possibly falling to #9? And if so, would/should they take a shot at said QB? Oh... and are their any plans on another running commentary this year?
Lou: Point taken about the Lions. I do like the moves they've made (to this point) this off-season. Since you wrote your e-mail, Josh McCown signed with the Lions, virtually locking in that Harrington will be cut by Detroit. I have a feeling that Harrington will bounce back in the right environment. And I'm not just saying that because he was on the cover of one of my personal favorite incarnations of NCAA Football for the PS2 (NCAA 2003.) I could see a team like Minnesota signing him to a one-year deal, seeing how he performs in practice behind Brad Johnson, and then evaluate him for the team's long-term plans.
At this point, and remember that things constantly are changing, I forsee Tennessee moving up one spot to secure Matt Leinart (and a reuniting with former USC Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow... the guy who was there when USC won 1½ straight national titles in two seasons), New Orleans then trading down from three to seven with Oakland, who'd move up to take Vince Young (the thought of Young and Randy Moss on the same offense is intriguing), and Jay Cutler falling into the teens of the draft to a team like Baltimore or Minnesota.
There is a slight part of this process that seems slightly phony to me, though, as I see Oakland really needing defensive help, and the team wouldn't be immediately helped by a QB. It's been 15 years since the Raiders used a first round pick on a quarterback... Todd Marinovich from USC. Plus, Oakland has the underrated Andrew Walter waiting in the wings. I really didn't mean to go on a Raiders tangent, but my point is that if the Raiders don't go QB shopping at #7 (or wherever they end up picking), you could see guys like Young and Cutler fall a bit further than expected in the draft. I'm not saying it'll be as drastic as Aaron Rodgers' free fall of 2005, but taking a QB in the first round is an expensive proposition. And as the situation with Harrington and the Lions revealed, it doesn't always work out very well.
From: Brian Hall
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mar 17, 2006 12:48 AM
Subject: Draft question
If Vince Young is still on the board when the raiders draft do you see them taking him? I don't see Young as the type of QB to get Moss the ball. I think Young pulls an Arron Rodgers.
Lou: I don't see why Young couldn't get the ball to Moss. The Raiders have a good RB in LaMont Jordan; factor in the rushing ability of Young at QB and defenses will be force to respect that risk. And the more things defenses have to worry about, the less they can concentrate on Moss. Remember, Moss was hurt for much of last year.
The Raiders could really use a defensive infusion with their first round pick in the front seven. Oakland fans have been quite adament about reminding me that Al Davis does NOT like to take LBs in the first round, but the team drafted LB Rob Frederickson in 1994 and LB Napoleon Harris in 2002, so it wouldn't be something without precident. As it is, there's more precedent for LB than QB in round one.
But forget the Wonderlic -- I think that Jay Cutler has more risk of sliding than Vince Young. Young willed his team while at Texas to too many wins to fall too far. Everyone remembers the Rose Bowl, but I remember distinctly seeing Texas come back to beat Kansas in the 2004 season based solely on Young refusing to allow the Longhorns to lose. Granted, it was Kansas, but Texas looked out of it... until Young turned into Superman.
I mention this because scouts and GMs are breaking down tapes of these guys like crazy, and I know that for a mere spectator like myself to be able to spot it, the professionals have to be able to see it. The only question I had about Young coming into the 2005 season was if he had the throwing accuracy to be ready to move to the next level, and he showed me that he does based on his performances.
Just for fun, let's look at the 32 spots in the draft and the likelihood of the team to draft a QB. Yes, some teams like Washington get left out as a result, but I think Redskins fans would just as well me not bring up its sordid QB carousel of recent years.
1. Houston: Highly unlikely (as the late Gorilla Monsoon might have said)
2. New Orleans Saints: No, unless the Saints have determined that Brees can play well only if challenged by a highly touted prospect
3. Tennessee Titans: High probability
4. New York Jets: Unlikely
5. Green Bay Packers: No (Aaron Rodgers '05)
6. San Francisco 49ers: No (Alex Smith '05)
7. Oakland Raiders: Possible
8. Buffalo Bills: Unlikely with many other team needs pressing
9. Detroit Lions: No... but admit it, if Vince Young slides here, all bets are off. Matt Millen has done crazier things before.
10. Arizona Cardinals: Possible, but unlikely given the needs/players likely to be on the board here
11. St. Louis Rams: Doubtful
12. Cleveland Browns: Doubtful
13. Baltimore Ravens: Possible -- Kyle Boller is like Trent Dilfer, only without the wins, the Super Bowl ring, or the ability to stay healthy.
14. Philadelphia Eagles: No
15. Atlanta Falcons: No
16. Miami Dolphins: Daunte Culpepper is in the house, so no
17. Minnesota Vikings: Daunte Culpepper has left the building, so possibly
18. Dallas Cowboys: Possible. Wouldn't that be an intriguing thing to see happen?
19. San Diego Chargers: No way
20. Kansas City Chiefs: Not outside the realm of possibility
21. New England Patriots: Not with Tom Brady in town
22. Denver Broncos (from Washington): If Cutler somehow fell here, I couldn't see Denver passing on that. But it's not a need... unless you're somehow uncomfortable with a QB nicknamed "The Snake"
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doubtful
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Unlikely
25. New York Giants: No
26. Chicago Bears: Highly unlikely
27. Carolina Panthers: Carolina seems happy with Delhomme, so no
28. Jacksonville Jaguars: No
29. Denver Broncos: You again? We're not serving seconds. See #22
30. Indianapolis Colts: Isiah Thomas is not running this team, so no
31. Seattle Seahawks: No
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: No
One thing overlooked by many in the Drew Brees signing by New Orleans: Houston lost leverage with the Titans in a potential #1 for #3 trade, since the Saints are now unlikely to take a QB. Sure, the pick could be traded, but that's a could, not a "QB likely to go here" scenario like we had before.
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