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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
December 15, 2006
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Brian J Wallin
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 14, 2006 10:58 AM
Subject: University of Miami??
Lou,
I know it has been a very hard year down at the University of Miami, and it has only gotten more difficult with the firing of their head coach... But with the draft coming up there is an interesting note. With Kelly Jennings slipping it at #31 last year the U of Miami increased their first round pick streak to 12 years. Starting back in 1995 when Big Warren Sapp went in the first round. My question is this... Is there anybody on the Miami football roster that may have a good workout and somehow sneak into the first round to extend this amazing streak. if not the longest streak will fall in Oklahoma, where Adrian Peterson will make it 6 straight years for an Oklahoma first rounder.
Also please tell me what it will take for Adrian Peterson or Dwayne Jarrett to end up in the green and gold. I would love to see Brett throwing rockets to Jarrett for one more year!!
Lou: The University of Miami's streak of consecutive seasons with at least one player taken in the first round is in serious jeopardy. Most of the team's top NFL prospects are on defense, though tight end Greg Olsen may be the first from "The U" to go depending on how he does in the combine and in individual workouts.
There are a few 2nd/3rd round prospects who could end up going toward the end of the first round, including DE Baraka Atkins, S Brandon Meriweather, and (the biggest first round long-shot of the trio) DT Kareem Brown. To what degree Meriweather's participation in the Miami/FIU brawl hampers his draft status remains to be seen, though early in the season he had the look of a potential first round pick.
My guess is that Miami's best chance is with TE Greg Olsen, though I would suggest that the odds are against Miami on keeping the streak alive.
From: Mike Torbert
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 14, 2006 3:33 PM
Subject: Best free safeties
Lou,
Who are the best FS in this years draft, even if you don’t post this, I would like your feedback so I can research myself. Also and CB to FS conversions.
Lou: Free safety is a position that is often overlooked; it doesn't have the shut-down capability of a corner, or the run-stopping, helmet-crashing tackling demands of the strong safety spot. But the free safety can be the glue of a defensive secondary, either holding the unit together in a cohesive fashion or giving way at a critical time, in no small part because the free safety is (usually) responsible for reading the offense. Size isn't as important for a FS (whereas the strong safety may have to match up on some plays with a tight end.)
The best safety prospect in the draft (free or strong), and probably the best safety prospect since Roy Williams, is LSU's LaRon Landry. Landry can cover the long ball, he is excellent at sniffing out the run, and the guy can lay a lick on anyone and look more like a SS in the process. He has a chance to be the hardest hitting FS since John Lynch. His 4.45 speed, while not elite, is more that sufficient for the position. If you have to criticize a safety for running "only" a 4.45, that should be a sign about his overall ability.
A guy who has shot up draft boards as the season has progressed is Wyoming's John Wendling. He even cracked the Mel Kiper Top 25 for a while, and with good reason, as he has elite speed (in the 4.35-4.40 range) and a nose for the ball (finishing his career in the top ten all-time at Wyoming for tackles.) He competed in relative obscurity in Laramie, but the guy can make plays. Watch for Wendling to fall into the 2nd/3rd round, be overlooked by NFL pundits, and then "surprisingly" burst onto the scene and have people then rant about how they are shocked that he fell out of the first round. If Bob Sanders could play without receiving a great deal of attention at Iowa (relative to the interest he has been given while on the Colts), Wendling is Sanders times ten on the incognito (not Richie) scale. Granted, Sanders is 5'8" (his height was seen as a liability) and Wendling is 6'1", but that's another discussion for another time.
Brandon Meriweather is an interesting free safety prospect in that he has the athletic credentials to be a second round pick (or maybe a late first as a stretch) but he has some serious baggage from the "Stomping! Stomping!" incident vs. FIU (fans of the PSX game Champion Wrestler should appreciate that reference.) I suppose that means the Patriots won't pick him, but someone will, and he has a nose for the ball and the athleticism to be a starter on the professional level. He has great closing speed and is very good at both reading plays and making tackles (he lead Miami in tackles in 2005.)
From: Steve Somppi
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 14, 2006 4:16 PM
Subject: Draft 'King'?
I mean no real disrespect as I am feigning outrage, but--how about DraftJester?
Are you actually serious about the Cleveland Browns picking Calvin Johnson? I get a kick out of the draftniks who seem to know absolutely nothing about the needs of the Cleveland Browns. I've been a Browns fan all my life and the main reason they can't get to a respectable .500 season, let alone make the playoffs is because they cannot control the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball. This inability to control the LOS also then adversely impacts four other crucial aspects/statistical areas for the Browns which include: 3rd down conversion rate (both sides of the ball), lack of pass rush, inability to run the ball or stop the run, and turnovers (more pressure equals more forced fumbles and ints).
When you combine these realities with the fact that the Browns have drafted a TE and a WR in the past three drafts in the 1st round, the Browns WILL NOT draft Calvin Johnson, even if he's walking on water and shedding a tackle from Satan on his way to the endzone.
The fact that you actually have Joe Thomas falling to the 9th pick (which I believe also WILL NOT happen), should be your obvious choice for Cleveland at #8 if, indeed, the Browns pick here and Thomas is available. The Browns could have 2-4 spots undecided going into the draft in April (to injuries, FA, and old age) and Thomas would be both a high need as well as be the best available OL. How is that not obvious. If the Browns end up winning a few (doubtful) and fall to 11-13, they should then pick Blaylock, Baker, or Jones as the next three best OL available.
Finally, considering the Browns also lack both depth along the DL as well as old and suspect starters Ted Washington (um, really old at 38), Orpheous Roye (coming off a knee injury and going into his 12 season), and Alvin McKinley (more of a situational pass rush type), they should also consider someone that fits into their 3-4 scheme. Someone that comes to mind (and who other draftniks have going higher) would be the next Sam Adams of the NFL, 6'6" 330lb Alan Branch. Has the size and strength for a NT in the 3-4. Also consider that even if Romeo Crennel does not survive the offseason and someone else comes into to revert to a 4-3 defense, they will need DL anyway.
So with that said, the Browns should draft an OL or DL in round 1 and most definitely not a WR. If they were to draft a skill position player (which I and the rest of the intelligent Cleveland fans out there would seriously disagree with) it would be RB--either Peterson or Lynch.
The Browns probably will let Northcutt go at the end of the season and would probably need some new WR bodies, but with Travis Wilson being a 3rd round draft choice last year in addition to Edwards, Jurevicious, and Cribbs, a #1 WR is not only not a priority, it would be a stupid pick.
Lou: I dunno if Draft Jester has the same ring to it as Draft King, but it made me laugh. Ditto for the reference to "draftnik"; I had a newspaper writer ask me two years ago if the word draftnik offended me, which I found hilarious -- I think the first time I heard it was when Bill Simmons used it writing about the 2001 NBA Draft. How could someone be offended by being called a draftnik? It doesn't even have its own Wikipedia listing (as of this writing), which I think means it doesn't really exist.
If Cleveland takes Calvin Johnson, it won't be because of need per se (though you can see how their offense has done this year with an unstable Braylon Edwards and an over-the-hill Joe Jurevicius at the starting wideout spots.) The Browns need a right-side offensive tackle, but taking a RT in round one would be cost prohibitive.
One consideration: Cleveland signed OT Kevin Shaffer to a seven-year, $36 million deal to lure him away from the Falcons this past off-season. To use a top ten draft pick on another OT would put a lot of cash into that position. Left tackle is generally viewed as more important than right tackle, and with Cleveland also paying top dollar ($36 million over six years, with $12.5 million guaranteed) to bring in center LeCharles Bentley (who promptly got hurt for the year in training camp), the o-line already has two big money players. Thomas would load it down with a third big paycheck guy, which could cause problems from a salary cap standpoint (the rest of the team has to get paid, too.)
Here's the problem with Cleveland's draft spot: they could miss out on Adrian Peterson, LaRon Landry, etc. and end up stretching to take a DT like Amobi Okoye or Alan Branch in the top ten. Ideally for the Browns: trade down, get Okoye or Branch (preferably Branch with a 3-4) and get an extra second or third rounder in the process. I'm just not sold on the team doing that.
Remember, with this mock draft it's not what I want to happen, or even what I think a team should do, but instead what is *most likely* to end up happening. While I might drift into armchair GM mode from time to time, I'm much more concerned about what is most likely to happen than what I think makes the most sense.
To reiterate on Johnson, the guy is a supreme athlete who will be very tough for teams to pass up. Maybe it's not Cleveland, but my anticipation is that it's 50/50 that Johnson will be gone by the time the Browns pick.
Cleveland made two excellent picks in last year's draft in DE Kameron Wimbley (who was seen as a stretch by some at the time at #14 but who stepped it up) and ILB D'Qwell Jackson (who was a wonderful addition to the 3-4 defense.) But with Reuben Droughns falling to an anemic 3.2 yards per carry average, things will have to change to a large degree with the team's running game.
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