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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
December 10, 2006
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Jon V.
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 8, 2006 10:03 AM
Subject: draft question
what's up, lou? how does the top of this draft class - maybe the top 5 - compare to the top of recent years' draft classes? for example, is brady quinn in the alex smith/aaron rodgers class or the vince young/matt leinart/jay cutler class? thanks!
Lou: In my estimation, you can only really begin to judge a draft class after three seasons, though arguably it's only after five years. So keep that in mind with this.
I'd rank this year's draft class *potential* slightly below last year's class, but ahead of the crop from two years ago. Brady Quinn is right up there with Matt Leinart/Vince Young and ahead of where Alex Smith and Aaron Rogers, at least in my opinion. Adrian Peterson is going to be an excellent pro RB if he can stay healthy, and while he might not have the cachet of Reggie Bush, he looks like an extremely promising pro RB who could take the starting role on a team right away. If somehow Houston could end up with him, that would be the best RB upgrade since
LaDainian Tomlinson replaced the platoon of Jermaine Fazande and Terrell Fletcher in San Diego in 2001.
On the other side of the ball, I don't know that this draft has a Mario Williams level talent (i.e. someone that could convince a team to pass on Reggie Bush), but DE Gaines Adams is someone who I think will be right up there as a top prospect.
Quinn Pitcock is one of the best DT prospects in recent years; DT is typically feast-or-famine, and it can be difficult to pinpoint a "sure bet" prospect at the spot. But if there is one in this draft, it's Pitcock, and given the Buccaneers needs and the fact that they traded away Anthony McFarland mid-season, they seem like a great fit for Pitcock. Calvin Johnson is the best WR prospect since Roy Williams, and he blows away anyone from last year's draft and even outpaces the likes of Braylon Edwards, Charles Rogers, and Andre Johnson as far as being an overall premium prospect.
How good is Calvin Johnson? It's entirely possible that he will could #1 overall, even with Brady Quinn and Adrian Peterson on the board. That probably won't happen based on team needs within the clubs hovering near the top, but wait and see. Detroit taking him would be high comedy. But remember: Johnson is the real deal.
Along with that top five, add in a top-tier guy offensive line talent like Joe Johnson (who could go higher than I have him now), a safety star like LaRon Landry, and rising star types like Amobi Okoye, and this draft looks really good in the top eight slots or so.
From: Joe Klunk
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 10, 2006 9:31 AM
Subject: Say it isnt so
Lou,
Just read your latest projections, and I'm a big fan of the site, but you
have me concernced. I have a several relatively large sidebets with multiple
associates, most of whom think of Troy Smith as the messiah, that he falls
out of the first round. Most of these fools have him in the 10-15 bracket,
so at 28 to the Ravens, they would really be wrong, I would have been
closer, and I'd lose a little money to boot. I personally see Smith as more
of a early-middle second round player, because of his height, and think that
if the Ravens go QB round 1, they would go more for a prototype player like
Trent Edwards.
Sidenote: I'm a Texans fan, and would love a corner like Leon Hall to come
into town, our secondary (well, our whole defense really) needs an extra
helper.
Lou: Sorry to hear about your side-bets, but just as Drew Brees fell out of the first round in the 2001 Draft, the same could happen to Troy Smith. The idea of him going in the 10-15 range seems unlikely, but all it takes is one GM thinking, "We must get this guy!" for it to happen.
As I wrote last month, the "real" height for Troy Smith will be important. Is he 6'1", 5'11", or somewhere in the middle? Can he really run a 4.6 40? It's silly in some ways to micro-analyze a guy who took home the Heisman Trophy and who has lead his team to the BCS Title game, though considering the money that teams put into high draft picks, it's easy for me to say that such analysis is silly.
Baltimore doesn't need a starter at QB for next year, though with Steve McNair turning 35 in the off-season, thinking long-term at the position is going to be important for the Ravens. As for the Troy Smith or Trend Edwards debate, remember how impressive Kyle Boller looked before the 2003 Draft? It's not fair to Edwards, but I know that there will be some in Baltimore who might look at Edwards and think, "Boller, Part 2."
Here's what I know: Troy Smith doesn't have prototype QB size, scrambling QB speed, or a ton of experience at the position. But he is a winner who knows how to win under pressure. Learning to read NFL defenses can come with time, and in one of those bizarre things that happens sometimes, Drew Brees (who Smith is most compared with) having a career year in New Orleans could end up influencing GMs to overlook the stigma of drafting a shorter-than-average QB.
To address the Texans' secondary situation, I concur that Leon Hall would be a great addition to that team's defense. Though, with the way Houston's offensive line played below-par today against the Titans, it would be interesting to see Houston have a choice between Hall and Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas. I think corner is the way to go, and Hall looks like a great prospect.
Speaking of Hall, I'm really looking forward to him (and the rest of Michigan's defense) matching up with USC's wide receivers in the Rose Bowl. The idea of a Hall vs. Dwayne Jarrett matchup is really, really interesting to me.
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