Lou Pickney's 2025 NFL Mock Draft

National Football League
Draft King Mailbag

Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.

Since you’re in Tampa, I had to ask you -- what do you make of the whole situation?

Lou: I can't fathom Tampa Bay trading up to get a QB. Chris Simms is clearly being groomed as a QB of the future, while Brian Griese is being given another opportunity to prove that 2004 was no fluke. For a team with as many needs as the Bucs have, this would be crazy.

But trading up to get Mike Williams... that's something that could happen. Because the Bears at #4 could go WR, if Tampa really wants Williams, it is a possibility. I'd say 85-90% of what I've read has Braylon Edwards ranked ahead of Mike Williams. Personally I like Williams better as a prospect, and I suspect that the Bucs do, too. Now keep in mind that this all could be a very elaborate hoax, a major ruse to keep everyone thinking that Tampa Bay is going to go with the hometown guy... only for the Bucs to swerve everyone and take Edwards.

The problem is that Tampa Bay really shouldn't be trading away picks. On a team with salary cap issues, the draft is the way to rebuild. After paying a hefty dowry for to Oakland for Jon Gruden, giving away a future #1 or this year's second rounder just doesn't make sense with the long-term needs of the team.

My gut tells me that the Bucs are toying with the Vikings, trying to drive up the price of doing business with the AFC teams (Dolphins and Browns) for the NFC teams that might be looking to move down (Vikings and Cardinals). Tampa Bay knows that it can sit still and still get one of the three blue chip RBs or one of the two blue chip WRs. That's a lock. Factor in the likelihood of at least one of the QBs going in the top four, and you've got two of the five to choose from, minimum. Why jeopardize that?

The only thing that might throw a wrench into this is if Tampa Bay strongly believes that there won't be a quality WR at #36, especially with New England, San Francisco, Cleveland and Philadelphia all drafting right before them and potentially snapping up WRs in those slots. Tampa Bay does have two third rounders and two fifth rounders, and you might see the Bucs do something like trading up from #36 into the late first round if they see a WR out there who they like (if they miss out on Williams and Edwards at #5).

Meanwhile, if the Bucs do score a WR at #5, then at #36 there's much less pressure on the RB tip, as the second wave of guys (J.J. Arrington, Ciatric Fason, etc.) don't project to start coming off the board until around that zone. It doesn't mean that the Bucs wouldn't trade up to get the RB they want if there's one guy in particular they have on their radar, but I think if they're chasing a WR then they might be more likely to pull the trigger on a trade from the #36 spot.

From: Jason Simmons
Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 8:59 AM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: Fearless predictions

1. The Cowboys will somehow have Mike Williams fall to them at #11

2. Matt Jones will go to a team in the first round

3. Derrick Johnson will not be picked until the early to mid teens.

4. The Eagles and Chiefs will trade up.

5. Minnesota will make all of their picks on time this year.

6. Alex Smith will plummet to the late first round

Just for fun Lou i was wondering if you would respond back or post on your website 3 to 5 predictions you see as possibly occurring.

Lou: I'll post some predictions for you, but first let me address your fearless predictions.

1. That is a very bold prediction. I don't see that happening, as if Williams is there at #10 I'd bet the house that both Dallas and San Diego would try VERY hard to trade up with Detroit to get Williams. Why Dallas? Because the risk of someone moving up to steal Williams, and the chance that Detroit might take him outright. I know yet another first round receiver sounds ridiculous for Detroit, but it is not an impossibility.

2. Quite likely. Matt Jones is the hottest thing out there (besides an Anttaj Hawthorne piss test). A shade above 6'6", 242, good hands, and he runs a SUB 4.4?!? No wonder Arkansas used him some on its basketball team.

3. DJ falling to the teens? It could happen. Linebackers are not traditionally taken high. What I don't get is why some teams are afraid of him because he "avoids blockers rather than taking them on." When you have amazing speed and can do that, WHY NOT? On the pro level, where everyone is fast, you can't do that. But it doesn't mean that he will do that as a pro. It just means that as a college player he did because he could. You might be right, though if Dallas passes on him at #11, it had damn well better be for someone like Mike Williams.

4. I buy the Eagles trading up; they look to be ready to wheel and deal, and that is their style. Eagles fan or not, you have to like the way they make the draft interesting in that way. As for the Chiefs, with them likely to deal a third-rounder for Patrick Surtain, I could actually see them trading down (with St. Louis perhaps?) and take maybe S Brodney Pool. They could trade up if Troy Williamson is there and they want him, but the cost of moving up to #10 (which is probably what it would take to get Williamson) would be steep just to get the #3 WR in the draft. But they'd do it if Mike Williams was there (which is a further argument against prediction #1).

5. That made me laugh out loud literally when I first read it. They are under new ownership, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt going into this year. Though with that likely mid-draft trade looming with Cleveland... maybe it's not such a given?

6. Alex Smith (or Aaron Rodgers) could be in for a sliiiiiide down the charts. I dunno about late first round, but I'm thinking of what happened with Chad Pennington in 2000 where the Steelers passed on him and finally the Jets ended up taking him despite having Testaverde. Popular sentiment tends to have Rodgers ahead of Smith right now, but the reality is that the 49ers will have the final say (if they take a QB), so all the rating and testing by outsiders unconnected with the team is moot. The key is figuring out who the 49ers will take. I heard Mike Nolan on SportsCenter this week give a very non-descript answer to how the evaluation process is going. But if QB2 (the one who doesn't go #1) makes it past Arizona at #8, it could be a long ride down the road. Imagine the green room blues for that guy. One really long shot is Detroit at #10. I know that have Boggs from Shawshank, err I mean Jeff Garcia in there with Joey Harrington, but if Detroit took a QB at #10 thinking long-term, it could "shock the league" but also be a reasonable investment, if Lions coach Steve Mariucci is as soured on Harrington as some rumors suggest.

Here are some fearless predictions of my own. I'll try to make this not be like those stupid predictions on NFL pre-game shows where they pick without the spread and choose the Vegas favorites 80% of the time.

1) Anttaj Hawthorne will be drafted on day one, failed urine test and all. I'm not a fan of the NFL drug-testing players who aren't under contract, but at the same time the guys going in know that testing is going to happen. But with that said, DT is a lean position this year, and some team will say, "Screw it, he learned his lesson, let's take a flier on him in the third round." Otherwise Hawthorne might break Rien Long's record for biggest free-fall of a defensive lineman in the off-season (actually I'm sure there are others, but Long comes to mind).

2) At least one of the ESPN analysts will criticize the Tennessee Titans for passing on one of the "big three" RBs to take a CB at #6. Nevermind that a healthy Chris Brown is a great RB, that the Titans have no cap money to go get a decent CB and that Tennessee has to pick for need in this draft.

3) Indianapolis will trade out of the first round. This is a risky prediction since Channing Crowder could be on the board at #29 and he could be a nice pick-up for the Colts, but I see them moving down to get more picks.

4) Demarcus Ware will not only go in the top 20, he'll be drafted before both Oklahoma's Dan Cody and USC's Shaun Cody.

5) The NFL will keep its penalty for testing positive for ephedra once (four-game suspension) higher than testing positive for cocaine, heroin or speed (entry into NFL's treatment program, but no suspension).

Draft King NFL Mock Draft

NFL Draft Prospect Profiles

Draft King is owned and operated by Lou Pickney. Copyright © 2003-2025, all rights reserved. Information on this website should not be used for any gambling purposes, nor does it constitute any sort of advice, financial or otherwise.