The Patrick Surtain sweepstakes
National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
February 5, 2005
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Chris Pennington
Sent: Friday, February 4, 2005 6:28 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Detroit
Hey Lou Just a quick comment do you really think that Detroit will take a TE at 10. Right now they're talking about adjusting the offense around the playmakers they have (Joey Harrington, Roy Williams, Charles Rogers, and Kevin Jones) so why would they possibly take another offensive weapon. I think you'll see them lean more on the defensive side. They locked up Shaun Rogers and James Hall but still need another DE to go along with Hall otherwise teams will just keep a fullback or TE to slow him down with another edge rusher will make it harder to do that. What do you think I know there is a drop off after James but I feel that's where it'll go
Lou: I've gone back and forth on what I think Detroit will do at the #10 spot. If Erasmus James is there, I think he will deserve strong consideration. But by the same token, the Lions have a *strong* need at tight end, and Miller is far and away the best TE prospect in the draft. It is a high spot for Detroit, but having a good tight end would help everyone from Kevin Jones in the backfield to Roy Williams and Charles Rogers going deep with defenses having to respect the possibility of the passing game going toward Miller. Look at what tight ends meant this season for San Diego (Antonio Gates) and Atlanta (Alge Crumpler) and their respective divisional championship runs.
Last year the Lions passed on Kellen Winslow Jr. (trading down rather than taking him at #6), so it's possible that the Lions share the feeling held by some that the top 10 is just too high of a spot for taking a tight end, no matter what his ability is. And you also look at the Lions draft from a year ago and you notice that they didn't take a single defensive lineman. I doubt that history will repeat itself on that end in this year's draft. If you're looking at non-Miller alternatives, it's possible that the Lions will take Dan Cody at #10, though I think Detroit's best bet is to trade down. I bet Detroit could move to #15 and still get Miller (if not going lower... but if you tempt fate too much, you lose the guy you want). Make no mistake that Denver would love to get Miller, but at #25 the Broncos are too far down to trade way up, unless they want to make some sort of blockbuster deal (which seems highly unlikely for a tight end).
From: Tony Palm
Sent: Friday, February 4, 2005 7:19 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: the cowboys
I think the cowboys need the improve on their wide receiver position. Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn are geeting older and if Braylon Edwards is there at #11 I think dallas should take him. If he's not there then draft the best defensive player available. Also should they make a run at Patrick Surtain for a second round choice?
Lou: Dallas has strongly hinted that it will trade one of its two first round picks, and I'd imagine it will be the latter of the two. If that's the case, then I can't forsee the Cowboys not taking a defensive lineman at the #11 spot (or a hybrid DE/LB like Dan Cody). There will be receivers in the second and third rounds who could very easily fit well into Dallas' long-term plans.
The Cowboys could get into the running for Surtain; the more I think about it, the more I think it'll take a first rounder to land him (more on that in a minute).
From: Paul J. Evans
Sent: Saturday, February 5, 2005 8:56 AM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Draft King Mailbag Subject: The Dolphins
It will be interesting to see what happens with Miami and their #2 pick. It seems a shame to let an experienced CB like Surtain get away. Experienced CBs are hard to come by and unless Rolle is the second coming of Deion Sanders, I can't see this working out for the best for Miami. Though with salary cap problems, they may have no choice.
But the biggest problem with this move for me is that the Dolphins with the #2 pick should use that pick to fill an existing hole on their team. If they follow the path you've laid out, Miami is creating a hole (by ridding themselves of Surtain and his salary) and then using a #2 overall to fill that hole that they themselves just created.
This is similar to what the Colts did a few years ago with Marshal Faulk. Coming to the end of his contract and not wanting to increase his salary, the Colts GAVE him to the Rams for something like a 3rd round pick (thus creating a hole on their team). The Colts then used a high first round pick to draft Edgerin James and fill that hole. If memory serves, that was a top 5 pick.
The Colts still had to pay James top 5 money and they were unable to fill another need position on their team. They should have kept Faulk, paid him the money they would have paid James (plus a little more, of course) and then used that top 5 pick to fill another need.
(I realize that all the draft experts say that was a great move, but considering Edgerin James' knee injury in his third year and Faulk cementing his Hall of Fame career in St. Louis...I don't see it.)
It stands to reason that the Dolphins should do the same. Re-sign Surtain and then use the #2 pick to fill another need....even if that need is a RB. If you had a choice between having an experienced CB in Surtain and a young (no mileage) RB like Benson OR an inexperienced CB like Rolle and a recently injury prone back like Henry (with several years of miles on him)...which would you take?
Of course, if Miami could secure a free agent RB like Alexander or James, this would be a moot point.
I would think their best option would be negotiate a new deal with Surtain, sign a free agent RB and QB and then use their #2 draft pick to move down the boards to pick up additional picks to fill their numerous holes. That's not asking too much, is it? (let's forget that theey're an estimated 16 million over the salary cap!)
Lou: You raise a good point that Miami would just be filling a hole that it created by picking Rolle after trading Surtain. But the reality of the situation is that Patrick Surtain is going to hit them hard on the cap this year if they don't trade him, and moreover if they don't trade him they'll receive nothing for him if he leaves via free agency after the 2005 season.
When it comes to predicting what teams will do, I do my best to keep in mind that it's not what I would do, but what I expect the team itself to do. Nick Saban knows the team has a wide variety of needs. The second round draft pick was something I just pulled out of the air: in reality, he may pull much more on the market. Over the past five seasons, Surtain has made 25 interceptions, which is seven more than any other corner during the same time period. He's only 28, and he's only missed four games in the past seven seasons.
It's looking like Miami will not go with Antrel Rolle at #2 (or wherever they end up picking), and I plan to amend my mock draft to reflect that in the next update (likely tomorrow before the Super Bowl). The Dolphins seem to have strong faith in Will Poole (fourth round pick in 2004 out of USC) in filling the CB position along with Reggie Howard across from Sam Madison.
Miami would love to keep Surtain, but consider this: the Dolphins have until March 2 (less than a month) to trim $17 million from their cap (making signing Alexander quite a challenge), and it can cut more than $6 million by dealing away Surtain. The Indianapolis Colts are very interested in Surtain, and it's possible that they would trade their first round pick to land him. The Miami Herald reports that a deal would NOT involve the Colts sending Edgerrin James to Miami, since Indy can slap the franchise tag on Edge (estimated $8 million for 2005) and still have $12 to spare under the cap. Somehow the Colts are $20 million under despite the massive contract extension signed by Peyton Manning last year.
As for who will go #2... Cedric Benson going there makes a great deal of sense. What I would want to do would be to try trading down a few spots, maybe land a 2005 second rounder of my own (since the Dolphins' belongs to Philadelphia thanks to the A.J. Feeley trade), and take Benson in the 4-5-6 range (I'd want Cadillac Williams actually, who I feel is a superior prospect, but I'm in the minority on that one). With the Colts pick you could do all sorts of things... Suddenly the Dolphins have an influx of young players with a new coach and perhaps a new winning attitude.
