Texans vs. 49ers
National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
December 3, 2005
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
One interesting note, before I start: Mel Kiper has moved Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler into his Top 25 overall list of seniors. Cutler's performance in off-season workouts (Senior Bowl, private workouts, the combine, etc.) will play an important role in how he is evaluated, but the fact that he carried a Vanderbilt team that lost its starting RB in an off-season tragedy (not far from where I live, ironically enough) and managed to navagate the Commodores through a brutal SEC defense, to me, spoke volumes about his ability. I'd seen his name pop up here and there as a possible first rounder, but I wasn't sure how the big timers saw him. But with that endorsement from Kiper... it should be interesting to see how Cutler does between now and the 2006 NFL Draft. I've been sticking by my thought that Omar Jacobs of Bowling Green will come out early, as the guy is an incredible athlete and an amazingly accurate QB, but it is possible that Cutler might shoot past him... and move into the #2 QB spot, which could slot him into the middle of the first round. We'll see.
From: CardboardBeautys@***.com
To: Lou Pickney
Date: Dec 2, 2005 3:34 AM
Subject: National Football League Draft King Mailbag
Do you see this upcoming draft class with the potential jrs being equal or better than the 2004 class? Seems like a lot of the 2004 guys like Julius, Roy williams, Kevin Jones have disappointed after solid rookie campaigns. Also do you see the Jets taking Bush or trading up to start the revamping of there walmart-esq offense. Keep updating that mock and thanks for taking the time to read my email.
Lou: The jury is still out on the class of 2004. Remember, it takes three full seasons to really get the first reliable indicators about a given draft class. Julius Jones has been injured, and I expect him to bounce back in 2006. With Kevin Jones, the situation is a bit different. Following a solid 2004 season (1133 yards, 4.70 ypc), the wheels have fallen off this year (523 yards through 11 games, 3.29 ypc) and he now has a thigh injury. But with the overall inconsistent play of Detroit's offense, it's hard to pinpoint the degree that Detroit's offensive woes have played in K. Jones' decline. I anticipate him coming back strong next year, though he could suffer from Anthony Thomas-itis (strong rookie year and then bust.) As for Roy Williams, give him time; he's another victim of Detroit's offensive troubles.
With WRs, it's the third season where breakouts usually happen. That means keep a sharp eye on the likes of Michael Jenkins in Atlanta, Reggie Williams in Jacksonville, etc. Even Michael Clayton, who had a great rookie year in 2004 and then took a backseat to Joey Galloway in Tampa Bay in 2005, will likely roar back for his real breakout in 2006.
As for the Class of 2004 guys who haven't made a move by the end of 2006, it's not an encouraging sign for their long-term prognosis.
The Jets need to trade down. Their cap situation is horrible; the Jets are a projected $30 million OVER the cap for next season. Even though any of the top prospects (Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, D'Brickashaw Ferguson) would fit in nicely, the team would be much better served to trade down for multiple picks, including a 2007 first rounder. If you've seen how the Tennessee Titans have paid the price for salary cap excess this season, you have a look at what the Jets have to look forward to next year. Ty Law? Out, possibly of his own doing if he chooses not to pick up the option on his contract. Curtis Martin? Out, a victim of the salary cap, a consistent and productive player who will be let go because of the economic realities of the NFL.
Then there's Chad Pennington, who has had TWO shoulder surgeries. Shoulder problems prematurely derailed Tim Couch's career, and there's legit fear that the same could happen to Pennington. It's a shame, since Pennington is one of the good people in the league, but life is unfair. Matt Leinart would be a great fit for the Jets in a rebuilding mode, but paying a QB top five draft money is not cheap... so barring a situation where no one will work a deal, or where the Jets don't fall in the top five, I don't forsee the team keeping its pick. That it, unless the Jets get the crown jewel, the #1 selection, where Reggie Bush might be just too much to pass up.
But because Draft King doesn't project picks, I'll put in there who I think the Jets would take if they somehow were unable to swap the draft pick, regardless of where it falls.
From: Rob Koller
To: Lou Pickney
Date: Dec 2, 2005 4:34 PM
Subject: Love your mock draft
Being a 49ers fan I have been following your board intensely since the beginning of the year. I am hoping that the showdown for Reggie Bush on January 1st (Houston vs. SF) goes our way with a Houston victory. It is sad that I now have to root for a loss but the drafting of this once proud franchise has become atrocious and unless they are forced into a pick they will screw it up.
I was wondering if you are going to go into depth with the 2nd and 3rd round and if so when as I cannot wait for this season to end soon enough. Last in offense and last in defense should guarantee you the first pick in the draft!!!!
Lou: For what it's worth, four of Houston's final five games are winnable, though Dom Capers can find ways to lose games that you just don't expect, as witnessed last week at St. Louis.
12/4 - @ Baltimore
12/11 - @ Tennessee
12/18 - ARIZONA
12/24 - JACKSONVILLE
1/1 - @ San Fran
Meanwhile, the 49ers have a tougher stretch run.
12/4 - ARIZONA
12/11 - @ Seattle
12/18 - @ Jacksonville
12/24 - @ St. Louis
1/1 - HOUSTON
Keep in mind that head-to-head record does not impact tiebreakers in the NFL Draft selection process; that goes by opponents' winning percentage, and if that's tied, then a coin flip takes place. But that is one tough road trip (from a distance standpoint) for San Francisco: Seattle to Jacksonville to St. Louis and then finally back to San Fran. Ouch.
My mock drafts typically do not go past one round. I can speculate on what a given team will probably do on day one, relative to its needs and the players likely to be available where it is drafting, but accuracy drops off considerably beyond the first round. Moreover, my real job keeps me busy enough where just maintaining a one-round mock draft is tough enough.
