Travis Henry and Jason Campbell
National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
January 18, 2005
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: OyzukiBloom@***.com
Sent: Tuesday, January 18, 2005 1:54 AM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Jan 17 version of Mock Draft
Excellent. I like this version of your Mock Draft much better.
I agree that Miami with an RB makes much more sense. And Chicago takes Mike WIlliams over Braylon Edwards all day - I still think Chicago is very anti-Michigan right now and Williams is a bigger better WR. And I agree that Tennessee takes Derrick Johnson - they need that type of defender who plays behind the line of scrimmage. KC will take a DB - it could indeed be Pac Man.
If Benson is there at #7 Oakland may very well take him, but it will kill them not to take Rolle, and I think Benson goes before Cadillac, probably to Miami. If so, look for Al Davis to pull a Parcells and get an RB in the second round - Vernand Morency or Ciatrick Fason should both be available, or Marion Barber in the third round. If neither Benson nor Rolle are available the Raiders need help at D-line and LB, and if Derrick Johnson somehow is still there..............
If Rolle is gone look for AZ to take Williams or Benson or Brown. Williams is my bet - he has the home run speed that Denny Green likes.
Right now I am not sold on either Rodgers or Smith going #1. First - a QB here is just too expensive, and despite York's comments otherwise money still matters to him. Second - both are juniors and therefore still a bit young; I am not sure either warrants the 1st pick although I like them both, especially Rodgers. Third - Mike Nolan is the new coach and he will want to make his mark with D. The Niners are terrible on D and next year doesn't look much better: Adrian Peterson and Andre Carter are injured, Bryant Young is over the hill, Mike Rumph is a bust, and Ahmad Plummer is ok but a salary cap nightmare reach. Despite their comments to the contrary I think the Niners try to trade down, and go D all day.
I know the Pats need a CB, but if Mark Clayton is there at #30 or so I agree they take him. But if Carlos Rogers is there .................
Heath Miller at #10? I didn't see him play, but that seems high for a TE, Kellen WInslow notwithstanding (and see how that has worked out so far!). Is he that good? Detroit does need a TE, but they also need a DB....
I agree the Steelers go DB - that is their one area of weakness, They are undersized at the corners.
I am surprised to see Marcus Spears at #28. Why has he fallen so low? He seems like the protype D-lineman.
Why does everyone assume that Shaun Alexander is gone from Seattle? He was the best back in the NFL this year, and has been a top 5 back for a while. If he leaves, I assume he goes to either Arizona, Oakland, or Miami which of course would change some draft boards.
Where do you think Travis Henry lands, and how does it affect the draft?
Finally, I was really impressed by Jason Campbell this year. He seems to have the size, speed, arm, and running ability. Why does he seem to be so lowly regarded? Do you think he could creep up into the first or second round?
Lou: There are many questions to be addressed here, so I'll go through them one at a time.
The 49ers may end up trading down, you're right. It's been noted in some newspaper articles that the value for the #1 pick might drop if the 49ers start shopping it too early. With Matt Leinart staying at USC, I'm not sure that there's a bona fide shooting star #1 pick in this draft, which would further dilute demand for trading the pick. 49ers GM Terry Donahue says that the team will take the "best player available", which (depending on their evaluation) could make things very interesting.
With many teams needing a cornerback, and because of the skills of CB Carlos Rogers, I doubt that he'll be on the board at 30-32 (wherever the Pats end up picking). There should be quality WRs on the board for the Patriots to choose from, so I like that as their top option at this point.
Detroit at #10 is in a no-man's land if they draft for need. It may be too high to take a TE (though Miller is a strong player); realistically Detroit trading down makes more sense. Guard Elton Brown would also be a nice addition, as would the second tier of corners (with Antrel Rolle alone in the first tier). But Rolle will be gone by #10 in all likelihood, and Detroit will face an interesting decision. If they stand pat and draft for need, Miller makes the most sense. But I predict wheeling and dealing in the Lions' future.
Marcus Spears could go higher, but he could slip entirely out of round one. It will depend on how he performs in individual workouts and at the combine. He's not the dominate pass rusher that many teams will want in taking a DE in the first round, which could cause him to fall.
Shawn Alexander is likely going to fall through the salary cap crack that exists in Seattle now. Seattle has Matt Hasselbeck, Walter Jones and Alexander all as unrestricted free agents. They have only one franchise tag. The 1/4/2005 mailbag goes into detail about the precarious situation there.
There's talk that Buffalo will keep Travis Henry in 2005. That is not a very smart idea, particularly since there is need out there for a quality RB, as you mentioned. It all depends on who is willing to pay, and what they're willing to pay, to obtain him. I don't see the Dolphins as a player because of their lack of high draft picks (minus the #2 overall pick) and the fact that they are divison rivals with Buffalo. But Oakland and Arizona... that has major potential.
Jason Campbell will be a day one pick. His career at Auburn was spotty, but in 2004 he stepped it up and had a fabulous season. Campbell will need time to get the coaching needed to raise his game to the next level (he has physical skills but will need to refine his decision-making on the next level), but him going in the mid-2nd to 3rd round seems quite plausable.
From: OyzukiBloom@***.com
Sent: Tuesday, January 18, 2005 2:25 AM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: JJ Arrington?
Why isnt JJ Arrington ranked higher on anybody's mock drafts? This guy led the nation in rushing, has decent size and good speed. He is an excellent north-south runner.
I think the only RB to rush for 2000 yards and not go in the first round was Troy Davis - but Davis was tiny. At 5'11 and 210, Arrington is comparable in size to Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Emmit Smith, and close to LaDamian Tomlinson.
Is he just below the radar screen because he played at Cal, who haven't had a good NFL runner since Chuck Muncie 20 years ago? Will he get more consideration after the combine and the workouts? Or is there some flaw that I haven't seen?
Lou: I've seen Arrington billed as 5'9" from a couple of different sources, and (all jokes aside) those extra two inches will make all the difference. Certainly Arrington had a huge senior season, and 2,000 yards rushing makes him someone that can't be overlooked. But just last season, he was benched for three games because of fumbling problems, and when he wasn't riding the pine he played backup to Adimchinobe Echemandu.
However, Arrington's speed is ranked between 4.39 and 4.41, and if he can duplicate that at the combine, he will gain attention. But by the same token, look for Arrington to wait until the second round at the earliest to hear his name called. Raiders scout Jon Kingdom told the San Francisco Gate, "I just wish he were a little bigger," and he agreed that it would be "a stretch" if Arrington goes in round one.
