49ers: CB or DT in R1
NFL Draft Mailbag
February 22, 2004
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Libra, Broc
Sent: Friday, February 20, 2004 4:32 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: draft question
I'm a HUGE 49ers fan, and am in a big dilema. Essentially, the 49ers need a
WR, a CB, a S, and DT help. And I've also seen that they're looking at RB
and TE, even though I think that would be stupid. So out of the big three,
WR, DL, or Secondary, what would you take first? (I know it all depends on
what's there, but with what you think is gonna be there, what do you think
is the best pick for them)
Lou: With the draft position that the 49ers hold (the #16 spot), there should be plenty of CB talent available for them to pick and choose from there. Or, if they're feeling daring, the 49ers could trade down a few spots (possibly picking up an extra second or third rounder) and end up still getting a quality CB.
But, there is always the caveat you brought up of someone being there on the board who is seen as a real talent. Drafting a running back would be foolish in my opinion (when is Kevan Barlow finally going to get a chance to be the feature back?!?); with tight end, if Winslow is there I say you have to take him (I think Winslow will slide, but not that far). Ben Troupe is talented, but not likely to be worth of the #16 spot.
The 49ers can likely get a quality WR in round 2 (especially with Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Williams helping to turn this into one of the deepest WR classes in years) and grab a mid-priced veteran off the free agent market. Yes, the team will miss T.O., but taking a receiver at #16 isn't going to help cure all in that department.
With defensive line, Randy Starks is VERY tempting if he's there, and it wouldn't surprise me to see San Fran take him there. Personally, it's what I'd do. Even though he's the kind of guy who could fit in well with that 49ers defense (of course, Starks could fit in well with any defense... but I digress).
So what do I think the 49ers will do? Read on...
From: Mr Z
Sent: Saturday, February 21, 2004 11:40 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: The SF Solution-Draft with a more realistic goal set towards 2005.
Greetings Mr.Pickney, your site was a pleasant find and made for a most
enjoyable read. You appear to have done your home work here. I saw your
correspondance with other fans, and I just have to ask as to your
opinion on what you think the Niners will do in the first 3 rounds? It
doesn't have to be perfect, I am just seeking your insight on what you
would do on day 1 if you were T.Donahue.
Before responding, please consider their offseason status with the two
starting WR's that will likely leave via FA. A secondary that could
potentially to lose it's top CB, and a D-Line that could use either a
Joe Johnson type of DE, or a DT like Wilfork or Starks to help against
bigger OL's that they had problems with (as was the case against
Minnesota, and GB).
Well I am sure you get quite a few responses to consider answering,
please look over this and respond if you are able. I appreciate and
thank you for your time spent reading this. Sincerely Mr.Z .
Lou: Well I addressed the Niners in the above portion, but here's how I see Day One playing out for them as of 2/22/2004.
Round 1: Randy Starks, DT, Maryland. There will be cornerbacks on the free agent market who the 49ers can bring in to line up opposite Mike Rumph (who bounced back in 2003 after having a poor rookie season). Defensive linemen on the free agent market cost a mint, whereas with Starks you'd have a guy who could potentially start right away, help stuff the run and plug up the middle like a champ. Now if a team like Tampa Bay takes Starks before the 49ers get to pick, then they might still go with a Vince Wilfork, someone who can fill the middle. Look back at the recent Super Bowl champs and notice how dominant the interior defensive lines for those teams have been.
Round 2: Lee Evans, WR, Wisconsin. Evans may be a pipe dream to last until the #47 spot, but two reconstructive surgeries on a knee for a wide receiver is a buzzkiller. Yes, I know Evans had a monster 2003 season (we've already discussed this), but if he's there then he could be the answer for San Francisco. The 49ers will still need to get a veteran WR off the market to complete the corps, but Evans would be a sweet pickup at this spot. If Evans is gone, take Rashaun Woods.
Round 3: Rod Davis, LB, Southern Miss. Touted as a first rounder going into 2003, Davis didn't quite match his breakout 2002 numbers. Davis isn't seen as being particularly athletic, but he does has excellent chase skills. His coverage needs work, but his coaches can help him with that. He has strong instincts, the so-called intangibles that are often key to success. I'm trying to avoid a cliché here... but he is good as getting to the ball and making tackles. I know linebacker isn't a major need for the 49ers, but with the draft there's a delicate balance between need and talent available.
So what about cornerback? I say the 49ers will take a corner in Round 4 to serve as a backup to Rumph and whoever they sign as a free agent to start opposite Rumph. Look for someone like Southern Miss CB Greg Brooks or Tusculum CB Ricardo Colclough (the guy that Mel Kiper was hyping like crazy for awhile last month).
Bottom line: you can get a good CB on the free agent market at a semi-reasonable price. The same cannot be said for a good DT (especially a young one). The Niners take Starks, and the rest of the NFC West begins plotting ways to block around him.
From: Michael Kingsley
Sent: Sunday, February 22, 2004 2:20 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Bills 1st round pick
Great mock draft. I agree with the choice to include
Henson; what does he have to gain from signing with
Houston?
On the subject of Buffalo's #13 pick, I would be
surprised to see them pick Winslow. First, I've seen
him ranked as high as #6, and second TE isn't a need
position for the Bills. According to wire reports
cited on BillsDaily.com, new coach Mike Mularkey said
that TE won't be a priority this offseason; they're
impressed with Mark Campbell's performance last
season, and will use him more in '04. In my opinion,
Will Smith or a WR (note Mike Williams' pending
declaration) would be more likely.
That said, maybe if the #6 player in the draft falls
to them, they should jump at the opportunity . . .
Lou: That was my thought process behind projecting Winslow to the Bills (the quality of the player dictating him being taken there). My latest Mock Draft has the Bills taking Will Smith (the Bills need to increase defensive QB pressure) and Winslow sliding to the Bears at #14 (this I'm sure will rile up the Winslow supporters). Don't get me wrong though, Winslow is a major talent and could go as high as #5 to the Redskins. He's a real "X Factor" in the draft, since tight end is one of those overlooked positions but one that is often quite pivotal (depending on the offensive scheme, of course).
As for what GMs and such say in public, take it all with a grain of salt. This is like a big poker game in many ways, with enough swerves to keep the media guessing and (hopefully) stay two steps ahead of the competition.
Regarding Drew Henson, I keep hearing talk of teams trying to trade for him... and I think this is all a big ruse by Henson's agent. Feign interest, find out how much teams are willing to pay on the open market, then enter the draft and use those numbers against them in negotiations.
I literally laughed out loud when I heard that they were working on a "very creative contract" that would allow Henson to pick his team (which is the only potential motivation he would have). The NFL and NFLPA will never go for a 10-to-15 year contract. No way. In my personal opinion, Henson and his agent are using the Texans to get information, pure and simple. And then just like that, poof, he'll be gone.
One team that looks to be out of the Henson running is Miami, who agreed to trade with Philadelphia for A.J. Feeley once trading can resume next month.
From: Mike Carr
Sent: Sunday, February 22, 2004 2:50 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Browns and Mike Williams
Just to let you know the Browns won the coin toss(I'm praying for Robert Gallery to slide down to us), and also how do you think Mike Williams(WR) from USC entering the draft will shake up the first round.
Lou: You may very well get your wish, Mike. The mock draft sites that I've visited haven't all quite figured out how to work Mike Williams into the equation (and until today I hadn't, either). He could always change his mind, and I'd have to redo my Mock. I've seen Williams put in the 11-12 range on a couple of drafts, but I think that is way low. I know people who actually think that Mike Williams is a better player than Larry Fitzgerald. I'm dead serious.
The thing is, Mike Williams (just what we need, another WR Williams in this draft) really is that good. He's 6'5" 230, has good speed, great hands, and he broke the USC career touchdown reception record: IN LESS THAN TWO FULL SEASONS. Think about that for a second.
I project that the Giants will follow the lead of the Texans last year, who needed an offensive tackle but passed on OT Jordan Gross to take WR Andre Johnson. This time around, I say the Giants reluctantly pass on Gallery and go with Mike Williams.
If that happens, I don't see the Redskins at #5 or the Lions at #6 taking Gallery. That would leave him there at #7 for Cleveland, which would be a major boon for the Browns.
From: Darron Fry
Sent: Sunday, February 22, 2004 2:57 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Browns won the Coin Flip
I have a question for you to address. Have you heard the rumors about San Diego giving Drew Brees another year at QB and trading their pick to Oakland so they could take Manning? The logic was they could get Fitzgerald as a premier receiver for Brees.
Lou: Here's the scoop on the San Diego situation. The Chargers were interested in only QB that would potentially be on the free agent market: Mark Brunell. San Diego team officials hoped that Brunell would be cut by the Jaguars and that they could snatch him up.
But with Washington orchestrating a trade with Jacksonville that will send Brunell to the Redskins next month, that's out of the question. At this point, all signs are that the Chargers will spend between now and mid-April evaluating Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger to see which one would be the better selection at the #1 slot.
