The price for trading down
NFL Draft Mailbag
February 17, 2004
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Mark S. Zulawski
Sent: Thursday, February 12, 2004 7:15 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: (none)
Lou you dont know what the hell your talking about there is no way winslow and taylor stay on the board that long good luck in lala land
Lou: You may be right about Taylor (the only thing hurting him is the stigma of teams that might be reluctant to pay high pick money for a safety). As for Winslow, I think he'll have a slip akin to Duece McAllister in 2001. There are similarities: Duece was highly touted as being head and shoulders above the rest at his position going into 2000, he had a good but not breakthrough year, and he ended up falling further than anyone expected. Winslow will still be the first tight end taken, but I think he's in for a slip. Not that being taken at #13 is a bad place to be, but it's not the Top 5 placement that some are predicting (that would REALLY shock me).
From: Richard Luebke
Sent: Thursday, February 12, 2004 9:28 PM
To: Loupickney@hotmail.com
Subject: Detroit Lions pick
just was checking your website and I saw your comment on the Lion's pick in the 2004 NFL Draft. Do you think that they might go after Roy Williams or Reggie Williams or even Reshaun Woods so they can add another weapon for Joey Harrington to use or do you still think that they will need a top caliber running back? Should they also consider a Corner back since most of there secondary was depleted with injuries. Chris Gamble might be the man they need to help Dre Bly out. Just want to know your thoughts?
Lou: If the Lions take a corner, it likely would involve trading down into the middle of the first round, or more likely waiting to take one in Round 2. With Charlie Rogers on board, I would think that the Lions would be very hesitant to add another high pick salary at the WR position to the roster, particularly with the talent that will be available on the free agent market at a much more reasonable level.
From: April .
Sent: Friday, February 13, 2004 5:27 AM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: lion's pick at 6
Hey Lou, I really respect your opinion, and I would like to know who might be interested in trading with the Lions in rd 1. I think they could trade down to 10-15 and get Jackson or Jones around there, and an extra 2nd or 3rd rd pick, do you see that happening? Who might be interested in trading up for an elite TE or Safety? Personally, I'd like to see what Holt can do at free safety, and draft Sanders in the 2nd, possibly trading down a little for him. After all, Holt is still learning the game, he didn’t start playing 'till high school, and he has a lot of playmaking ability, if the Lions could add another playmaker at SS, they would be in good shape. I also wouldn’t mind seeing them land Perry in rd 2, but I don’t see NE trading. Do you? Thanks for your input, I really value it.
Lou: Well April, you're right that the Lions could trade down to 10-15 and likely still get either Jackson or Jones there (though likely not BOTH of them -- though you never know). If I were the Lions, and *if* I decided that drafting a RB was a priority over going for someone like University of Miami safety Sean Taylor, then I wouldn't think twice about trading down with a team like Jacksonville. The Jags could jump to #6 and land coveted WR Roy Williams (leapfrogging Atlanta), and the Lions could get the Jaguars' #9 pick and also Jacksonville's second rounder (with possibly a little something else going from Detroit). For Detroit to move down to, say, the Jets' pick at #12 (envisioning a similar leapfrog scenario to give Chad Pennington a young WR threat), the Jets would have to give up quite a bit. More than just a second rounder -- I'm talking their #12 pick this year AND their first rounder next year. But who's to say that won't happen? Even if Pittsburgh takes Jackson or Jones at #11 (and there's no guarantee of that at all), the Lions would still theoretically end up with the other one at #12. Or perhaps that's where they take the likes of CB Chris Gamble. There are a million possibilities.
From: Brian Heisler
Sent: Friday, February 13, 2004 5:04 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: Pats comments in FEB 10 mailbag...
The guy who wrote in about the Pats, Dominic Desrosiers, had a great analysis on the Pat's situation. These are the first comments I have seen that I can totally agree with, 100%!
About your statement about the cap - the Pats don't really have much cap room. Dumping ASmith helps, although only a little because of his signing bonus hit. And alot depends on what happens with FAs Woody & Washington, and the contracts of TBrown, RPhifer & TLaw, both with the cap & the draft...
If DWoody is gone, I would expect them to take a G in the earlier rounds. I would definitely expect them to upgrade OT also, regardless, with TAshworth easily upgradeable (sorry Tom). If TBrown is cut, same with WR. And TLaw won't be cut - but I think they'll grab a CB (or S - move EWilson back to CB) with a 3 or 4 rounder, both to groom and to use for punt returns. Colclough should fit the bill for this need.
So my predictions are, assuming that KJones & SJackson, SAndrews , and DJWilliams & DHall are all gone before #21:
NE trades #21 for either a first '05 & a 2nd this year, or a 2nd & 4th this year, and switch 3rds with the team - providing it's a team picking in the top 8. I think the latter scenario is more likely - trade position 32 & 96 for, let's say, (Arizona - who likes Rivers as a young QB) position 34 & 66 & also 99.
Then wait & see what happens with the board at #32 - New Orleans is a team that has more immediate needs and might trade #49 & #61 to move up for another pick in Round One.
I just can't see anyone being there in Rd 1 that will make them drool if all those players I named above are gone, which is very likely. And this is a very strong draft, IMHO, for good but not great players.
Lou: It all makes sense to me (Brian went very in-depth beyond this, but there's only so much room in the mailbag -- click here to read the full e-mail). What I think will ultimately be the deciding criteria for the Pats' two first rounders are what teams offer for one or both picks (obviously), and more importantly how the Patriots rate the talent at linebacker and running back and if they think they can get blue chip talent at both positions at their spots. Dominic Desrosiers sent me a tip that the Pats are interested in Charlie Garner, which when you think about it makes perfect sense with their system.
But if by April 24 the Patriots have not addressed their RB position through free agency, the team WILL work something out (either by trade or the draft) to have that spot secured. It's such a glaring hole on an otherwise very strong team.
From: Ricardo Rubio Villarreal
Sent: Friday, February 13, 2004 8:23 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: Chargers Draft
What are the possibilities the Chargers trade with a Top 10 draft choice team. Because I hear the Browns are interested in a Trade. With that said if Chargers trade and get the #7 choice do you thing San Diego can get Robert Gallery if Giants go for Safety Sean Taylor. I thing Sean Taylor’s stock is going to go up after the combine, you’ll see.
Lou: For San Diego to move from #1 to #6/7 (remember, Cleveland and Atlanta are still both in the running for those two spots), they would need a king's ransom from the Browns (think what the Vikings gave up in the 1988 Herschel Walker trade). Could it happen? Potentially, but not likely; teams are generally hesitant to trade from outside the Top 5 into it (due to the huge signing bonuses that come with the territory). If San Diego trades down, which I don't expect, I'd say it would only be to #3 at the furthest.
As for Sean Taylor, there's something about him and the Cardinals at #3 that is really making me think. Taylor's stock is universally acclaimed as being on the rise, and you never know what the crafty Dennis Green might do...
