Taylor vs. Jackson
NFL Draft Mailbag
February 10, 2004
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Sent your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Joe Shults
Sent: Thursday, February 5, 2004 7:28 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Hello, nice draft site
hi, i was looking through your draft site, nice, and saw your Mock draft. I have to say that I do not really think that the Lions will draft Jackson at #6, too big of a reach for such a high pick, he just is not that good. I believe we will take Taylor or Udieke (sp), in the 1st round. We really need to finish our defense and pick up a Rb in FA.
Lou: Sean Taylor is moving up many draft boards as of late. And rightfully so -- the guy is a playmaker with blazing speed, intuitive skills and powerful hits that make receivers think twice about going over the middle.
Dallas safety Roy Williams is proof positive that a safety taken in the Top 10 can pay off in a major way for a defense. And the Lions certainly could use that sort of boost.
However, I disagree with the assessment that Jackson would be a stretch at #6. I recognize that Jackson might not have received a great deal of publicity playing at Oregon State, but the guy is a skilled, special athlete. At 6'3" 229, he has the size to play RB in the NFL. His 4.4 yards per carry average wasn't terribly impressive, but his 22 TDs (and in particular his 149 yard, 4 TD performance in the Las Vegas Bowl) certainly was an attention getter. Jackson can catch the ball out of the backfield, which would allow himself to potentially be an outlet receiver for Joey Harrington on any given pass play.
What the Lions do will likely be predicated on Jackson's performance at the combines (40 yard dash speed, pass blocking skills, bench rep, etc.) Also, the RB free agent market will be one to watch, as you mentioned. Someone like Corey Dillon could be a nice fit in Detroit, where he could be the franchise back and snatch up the bulk of the carries. But this is also a young Lions team that is building, and what better way to add to a young QB (Harrington) and young WR (Charlie Rogers) than with a young RB in Jackson. There will be cornerbacks aplenty in free agency, and while that doesn't impact the safety position, it could at least give Detroit enough strength in the defensive secondary to spend a third straight high first round selection on an offensive skill position player.
From: Schlichting, Richard
Sent: Friday, February 6, 2004 12:10 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Mock Draft
Lou, nice job.
But if Jackson and Jones are off the board Dallas goes DE or DT. Perry is not going in round 1. Thanks. I enjoy your site.
Lou: There seems to be a great deal of doubt about the viability of Perry being a first round grade draft pick. But it seems to me that the primary goal of the off-season for the Cowboys will be landing a blue chip RB through one way or another.
Would the Cowboys pass on Perry for a DE or DT? Perhaps, though I would think that the wheeling-and-dealing Bill Parcells would be more likely to make a move either trading up (perhaps to Miami at #20) to get Kevin Jones if he's still available, or sliding down for a second rounder in 2004 and a first rounder in 2005 and opt to try and get Perry sliding down (or perhaps someone like Northern Illinois RB Michael Turner, who may very well be the RB steal of the draft).
But, if push comes to shove, I can't see Dallas taking Marcus Tubbs (University of Texas guy or not) or another DT or DE in place of Perry at #22. Dallas' lack of a running game neutralized their offensive opportunities in many, many situations last season, and rest assured that Parcells and company will not allow that to happen again this year.
From: Carrie Rogers
Sent: Saturday, February 7, 2004 10:31 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Nate Kaeding
Lou,
You don't usually hear about kickers on draft day, but kickers are usually the difference between a win and a loss. What round do you see Iowa kicker Nate Kaeding going in?
Lou: The kicking game is more critical than ever, with the era of free agency creating such a competitive balance between teams in the NFL.
But, with that said, the demand for blue chip kickers coming out of college isn't all that high, as the jump from the pressures of the college game to the NFL level is one that is difficult to judge until an individual actually makes the move.
Look for example at the 2002 Draft, where Florida kicker Jeff Chandler actually was drafted by San Francisco in the 4th Round before teammate DE Alex Brown (Chicago). Chandler, who excelled for the Gators, is only 14-19 in two seasons for the 49ers. Brown, meanwhile, has rebounded from a disappointing senior season at Florida (where he dropped from a potential first round down to a second day selection) to earn a starting spot for the Bears.
With that said, Kaeding is different in that he has amazing accuracy from beyond 50 yards. He's also good at kickoffs, which makes him all the more tempting for NFL teams. I look for him to go in the Round 3-4 range, more likely in the middle of Round 3.
From: Desrosiers, Dominic
Sent: Monday, February 9, 2004 5:00 PM
To: Lou Pickney
Subject: Patriots
Hi Lou,
Great site.
About your mock draft, The Pats don't need youth at WR; David Givens (23),
Deion Branch (24), Bethel Johnson (24). They may need some size but group as
a whole is a strength on the team.
RB is a weakness but the feeling in NE is that they can find one in the 2nd,
3rd round that would fit there needs.
Bill B and Scott P are all about value, it wouldn't surprise me to see the
Pats trade one of the first rounders for an '05 pick (again) and an '04 2nd
rounder.
Where will they go in the first round ? I think LB or secondary. Here's my
thought process.
QB 0% chance
WR 20% maybe if something falls to them but there is log jam at this
position already. Brown Branch Givens Johnson
OT 40% if there is someone they like but if the top talent at the position
is gone they won't reach in the first round.
OG 10% they won't take a guard in the first round when they can get there
choice at the end of the second into the third.
RB 25% if there is one they like then maybe, but RB is not a feature in
there offense and they think they can get one in FA or lower in the draft.
TE 0%
FB 0%
DE/DT 40% there could be some prospects here but there is a log jam of young
talent waiting to play. Jarvis Green, Ty Warren, Dan Klecko
LB 50% The Pats might have there choice of LB even at the 32 spot. This
group is ageing, Rosie Colvin is a ? until he gets it done on the field.
CB 45% If not LB then CB, there is strong FA class of CB and the Pats mite
want some more leverage to counter the Ty Law situation.
Lou: Interesting analysis of the Pats situation. With the team's release of Antowain Smith, it's obvious that the Patriots are making a much-needed upgrade at the RB spot. With the two first round picks (and two second round picks), they have some options. Trading for future selections may not be a bad idea, though there are issues that need to be dealt with.
Some of New England's decisions will be dependant on what they expect other teams to do -- and how much value the team places on various players in the draft. If the Pats stay at #21 and value Kevin Jones and then take him there, then all is well. But those are a lot of "ifs" -- especially with Dallas lurking one pick below, potentially poised to leapfrog the Pats in a swap with the Dolphins and pull a "yoink" move to steal Jones out from under New England's nose (and you know that the Dolphins would be all too eager to accomodate such a maneuver).
Another trade-up option for New England looms at the end of the first round. Landing a blue chip LB would be nice, if nothing else as insurance for Colvin and to bolster the aging linebacker corps. Either Jonathan Vilma or Karlos Dansby would be great to pick up, though it seems likely that the Panthers will select a linebacker at #31. If the Titans really do want to take someone like V-Tech Center Jake Grove at #27, then they should feel comfortable in trading down to #32... allowing New England in turn to jump up and snag the LB they want.
Or, if New England is really sold on someone like Steven Jackson, and the above scenario in the Detroit section plays out where the Lions pass on Jackson to take Sean Taylor, then potentially the Patriots could deal their two first rounders (and maybe also a second rounder) to Houston to snag Jackson. It doesn't solve the LB concern, but there'd still be a 2nd rounder intact to handle that. But with plenty of picks, depth galore, cap room and the elation of a second Super Bowl in three years, the Pats are in the catbird seat to play things their way here in the off-season.
