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2005 NFL Mock Draft Breakdown
December 6, 2004
From time to time I'll go through my mock draft and provide detailed thoughts on who I see going where, and why I have them projected as such.
1. San Francisco 49ers - Matt Leinart, QB, USC
The 49ers are in shambles. This was no surprise to me; I've had them in the top spot of the draft since before the season began. Take a so-so team, remove Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens... and let the chaos begin!
San Francisco should realize that Tim Rattay is not the long-term answer at QB. Not when they have the likes of Matt Leinart and Aaron Rodgers to choose from at QB. Either of those players could go here, and it will likely ultimately come down to which player the 49ers like better (unless a dark horse prospect makes a late run, a la Philip Rivers last year). But if an Andrew Walter, or a real longshot like Akron's Charlie Frye, can leapfrog both Leinart AND Rodgers... well I'll be surprised.
2. Miami Dolphins - Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal
The worst trade of 2004 was, without question, Miami dealing its 2005 second round pick to Philadelphia for A.J. Feeley. I knocked the team for it in June: "But I say the worst move was Miami trading a 2005 second round pick to Philadelphia for A.J. Feeley." And that was before Ricky Williams retired and David Boston tore up his knee.
Some speculators believe that what the Dolphins will do here is predicated on if the current management team is retained beyond this season. Since that team traded for Feeley, it may feel obligated to try another year of that experiment. Feeley will be 28 when the 2005 season begins, so it's not as if he's ancient. But by the same token, just yesterday Feeley threw FIVE interceptions at home against the Bills. That is not good. At all. And remember, Feeley was brought in to replace Jay Fiedler, yet struggled mightily in an attempt to earn the starting job in the 2004 Miami Dolphins training camp.
I believe that if Miami is sitting at #2 and a QB the calibre of Aaron Rodgers is there, it would be a mistake to pass on him. Obviously Miami has a huge need at RB, but taking a RB at this spot would be very poor value for the spot. Short of trading down, I couldn't see the Dolphins passing on Rodgers (or Leinart if Rodgers is gone).
3. Cleveland Browns - Mike Williams, WR, USC
Cleveland could do several things in this spot. From an offensive line standpoint, they had a major need there last year which went largely unattended... and guess what, that need remains. A scenario with Cleveland moving down two spots to #5 (to get either Alex Barron or Antrel Rolle) and the Raiders moving up to #3 to get Williams seems like a possibility.
But if Cleveland sticks, I think that Williams is their pick. The guy was a phenom at USC, and he was screwed royally by the NCAA/NFL collusion in the Maurice Clarett challenge to the NFL's entry policy. With a case pending in court that could've potentially allowed Williams into the 2004 Draft (where he almost for sure would've gone to Jacksonville at #9), Williams should've been allowed to seek that possibility without losing his eligibility.
I know, I know. Would've, could've, should've. But the Tampa native, after a year out of the game, has a chance to remind everyone once again of why he could be the next big thing in the NFL.
4. New Orleans Saints - Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas
Has there been a more disappointing team in 2004 than the Saints? This was supposed to be a make-or-break year for New Orleans, but even in a very weak NFC the team didn't have the juice to crank it. A coaching change there is all but guaranteed.
The upside to this is a high draft pick for the team, and I think the Saints will make the unusual move of taking a linebacker in the Top 5. But Derrick Johnson is no ordinary linebacker. A dominant playmaker with all the skills to be a perennial All-Pro, Johnson is 6'4" 230 and runs a 4.5 40. DJ will make the Saints defense considerably better by his mere presence alone.
5. Oakland Raiders - Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami
See above for the possibility of Oakland trading up to get Mike Williams. If that doesn't happen, Antrel Rolle is a nice consolation prize. The top corner in the draft, Rolle established himself as a star on a University of Miami team which had its incredible 2003 defense cannibalized by graduation and the NFL Draft. At 6'1" he's no midget (which is important in this era of taller WRs), and he's great on the blitz.
6. Washington Redskins - Dan Cody, DE, Oklahoma
The Skins have needs on their defensive line, and Cody will help fill some of those. There are mixed opinions out there on Cody; scouts that like him seem to really like him and think he'll be great, noting his skills playing both the run and the pass. His detractors point out that his speed and strength is not what you'd expect from a DE to be taken this high in the draft. The main question is: will teams be sold on Cody as a pass rushing threat? That is what would position him this high in the draft (above David Pollack and Erasmus James).
7. Arizona Cardinals - Cadillac Williams, RB, Auburn
The smartass side of me wants to type in "Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan" for this pick, since it seems that Arizona thought it was in a fantasy football keeper league or something the way its draft pattern has been the past couple of years. Then again, this pick follows that trend, with Carnell "Cadillac" Williams going in this spot. Remember when people knocked Deuce McAllister coming out of college when Ole Miss curiously (and I'm being kind here) split his carries with Joe Gunn in 2000? In this case, Cadillac has an elite RB teammate in Ronnie Brown, so it's a different situation. But bottom line, Arizona should have the pick of the litter at the RB spot... whatever the team determines the best RB to be.
And what do I see? Cadillac, that's who. The guy is simply amazing. The knocks I read on him I find rather laughable. People who question his speed must not have seen much SEC football this year. If Arizona takes Williams (or his teammate Ronnie Brown), it will be well off in 2005. That team needs a dependable running game.
8. Tennessee Titans - Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin
I have the Titans penciled in as taking Erasmus James here, since they could use someone of his calibre to bring the heat. But if Alex Barron is really on the board when they pick, I think it would be foolish to pass on him, especially with Titans QB Steve McNair playing the "hinting at retirement" card saying that he needs more help. Plus the Titans took *two* DE in the second round of last year's draft.
9. Chicago Bears - Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan
Before the season, I wasn't all that high on Edwards. I'll admit it. He had too many drops in 2003 for my liking.
In 2004 he proved that he has fixed whatever problems he had. Edwards stepped it up, and in a draft that has a limited number of blue chip WRs, Edwards should be an easy pick for the Bears.
10. Kansas City Chiefs - Alex Barron, OT, Florida State
Yes, the Chiefs desperately need to upgrade their defensive secondary. I know that. But if Barron if still on the board, I don't think the Chiefs will pass on him.
This may be a good place to address an important issue: mock drafts tend to plug in players where needs are perceived. But all too often, the real NFL draft seems to follow a much less logical flow. Last year I would've been lambasted had I corrected prognosticated the scenario that played out with Steven Jackson. At it was, I had people writing me all sorts of angry e-mails questioning my judgment in having Jackson go in the #17-20 range.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma
The Jaguars haven't had a franchise offensive tackle since Tony Boseli's shoulder turned into paper maché. Brown could help protect Jags QB Byron Leftwich from another "Crunch Classic" of a season.
12. Seattle Seahawks - Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn
The Seahawks may lose Shaun Alexander to free agency. If that happens, this might be where the team decides to pull a Colts-in-1999 move (Marshall Faulk out, Edgerrin James in) and draft Ronnie Brown.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cedric Benson, RB, Texas
Remember what I said before about logic and the draft? Yes, Cedric Benson would be a great fit for the Bucs. But there's no way this will happen. No way. Jon Gruden has never been about a one RB dominant style offense. He's used Michael Pittman in 2004 some that way, but that's been strictly out of necessity. Gruden is a RB-by-committee kind of guy.
But with all of that said, Cedric Benson could be a franchise back who could solve the Bucs' RB problems for the next decade. So it's worth considering, even for Gruden.
14. Detroit Lions - Marcus Spears, DE, LSU
Detroit did not draft a single defensive lineman in the 2004 Draft. This will change in 2005, and I see the Lions starting things off with Spears. Since he's not a crazy pass rush threat like other top DE prospects, he could be used also as a DT.
15. Houston Texans - Anttaj Hawthorne, DT, Wisconsin
Much like Detroit, Houston didn't draft a true defensive lineman last year (Jason Babin was a DE in college, but moved to LB in the NFL). Spears might actually be a better fit for the Texans, since he may have skills more fitting a 3-4 scheme. But Hawthorne is the type of player that can command double-teams, and at 6'3" 305+ pounds he isn't going to be easily pushed around.
16. Carolina Panthers - Antonio Perkins, CB, Oklahoma
Some people will project Carolina taking a WR here. No way. Steve Smith will be back from his injury in 2005, and the Panthers drafted a WR in the second round last year. With a defense that has a great front four and solid linebackers, they need some secondary help to take it to the next level.
Perkins is just one of a number of possibilities for the Panthers in this spot. Besides Rolle (who will be long gone by #16), there should be several strong corners to choose from here. Clemson CB Justin Miller has said that he will return to Clemson for his senior season, but those comments came before his involvement in a fight in the Clemson/South Carolina game.
17. San Diego Chargers (from NY Giants) - Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma
Remember before the season when it looked like the Chargers might have two top five picks (theirs and the Giants')? That didn't happen, but for San Diego the upside is a team on the rise which still has two first rounders, even if they're a bit further down the line than expected.
Clayton would be a great pickup for a team whose WR corps is held together by duct tape. The brilliant trade deadline acquisition of Keenan McCardell helped in the short-term, and Reche Caldwell showed signs of the usual WR "third year breakout" before suffering a season-ending injury. But Clayton joining the staff could be just what the doctor ordered in upping San Diego's WR options.
18. Dallas Cowboys (from Buffalo Bills) - Corey Webster, CB, LSU
Dallas needs to give its secondary a shot in the arm, and if Webster is on the board here, he could be just what they needed. Webster showed that he had individual skills this season, after some questioned just how good he was individually with a great secondary on LSU's co-national championship team in 2003.
19. Cincinnati Bengals - Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College
Kiwanuka is a junior and may not enter the draft. If he does, it's a big roll of the dice for whichever team takes him. Physically the guy is amazing. He's 6'7" and runs a 4.6 40. Read that last sentence again. He might need to put on some more muscle to avoid being overpowered, but a 6'7" DE who can rush the passer well is a huge weapon for any team.
20. Dallas Cowboys - Michael Munoz, OT, Tennessee
It's hard to say what the Cowboys will do in reality in this spot. With two first round picks, Dallas has all sorts of options. I had them slated to take Munoz, despite the fact that they took an offensive tackle in the second round last year. Offensive line depth is important.
21. Baltimore Ravens - Fred Gibson, WR, Georgia
Baltimore got the shaft last off-season with the Terrell Owens drama. This time around, with a first round draft choice to use, I see them taking talented Georgia WR Fred Gibson. As Kyle Boller matures, Baltimore will need to provide him with options at WR.
22. St. Louis Rams - Channing Crowder, ILB, Florida
Crowder is a junior, but he was very close with Ron Zook, and his firing will likely prove enough to tempt Crowder to test the NFL waters. Crowder as an inside linebacker would be quite interesting in St. Louis... we'll see if it really happens like that.
23. New York Jets - Matt Roth, DE, Iowa
Roth is a former linebacker who has the speed and size to be a threat as a DE. While not "bulky", he's also speedy enough to be effective agains the pass and the run. He seems like a definite Herm Edwards kind of player.
24. San Diego Chargers - Kevin Burnett, OLB, Tennessee
Pop quiz: of San Diego's eleven picks last season, how many were linebackers? Answer: zero. This time around, I see San Diego using their second pick of round number one on Burnett, who would help bring even more strength to the San Diego linebacker corps (important in a 3-4 defense). Burnett could potentially push Ben Leber for his starting spot in 2005.
25. Green Bay Packers - Andrew Walter, QB, Arizona State
There are some who are ready to declare Packers #2 QB Craig Nall as the heir apparent to Brett Favre, thanks in part to his success in mop-up duty in Philadelphia's route over Green Bay yesterday. But not so fast. If Andrew Walter is here, how can Green Bay pass on him? While Nall might have the skills to handle backup duty, realistically this might be the right time to pick a QB in Walter and let him develop for a year or two before replacing Favre.
26. Denver Broncos - Heath Miller, TE, Virginia
This pick is so obvious that it seems to me that it won't happen. Late first round picks that fill glaring needs (like this one) usually go anything but according to plan. But the obvious is that Denver needs a tight end, and Miller is the best of the bunch. Miller is a junior, so him going in the draft is not a given. But if he's there, Denver should pick him. I'd be shocked if Miller went back for another year at Virginia (since it will be next to impossible for him to do anything to further raise his draft stock).
27. Minnesota Vikings - James Butler, S, Georgia Tech
While there are no Roy Williams type elite safeties in this draft, there are some who could begin coming off the board around this spot. Butler is good, but Thomas Davis of Georgia is one to watch. Davis is a junior who most recently said that he's leaning toward returning to Georgia. But less than a month ago he told the Albany Herald that he was leaning toward the NFL (in light of him having an 11-month old son). If Davis enters the draft, I could see him going in this spot.
28. Indianapolis Colts - Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn
Will this finally be the year that the Colts address the team's long-standing need at CB? If so, look for them to take Rogers, a guy who had an excellent senior season and who is the physical prototype (6'1", runs a 4.45 40) of an NFL corner.
29. Atlanta Falcons - Elton Brown, OG, Virginia
Protect Michael Vick. Protect Michael Vick. Protect Michael Vick.
You get the point. The Falcons improved their defense tremendously in the past off-season (thanks in no small part to changes made by new coach Jim Mora, Jr.) Now the next step is to upgrade that offensive line. Typically drafting guards or centers in the first round is not very appealing, but Brown is the real deal. Plus the Falcons didn't draft any offensive linemen in 2004, so now would be a good time to do that.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers - Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State
If I'm the Steelers, I'd want to make it even tougher for teams to run the ball against me. Travis Johnson can help make that a reality.
31. Philadelphia Eagles - Marlin Jackson, CB, Michigan
The one lingering issue with Philly is the depth/strength at corner. Marlin Jackson has had an interesting ride at Michigan (including spending time at the safety position), but this season he showed that he has the goods to make it worthwhile to invest a late first round pick in him. However, the decisions of some high profile junior CBs on the NFL draft could have a major impact on if Jackson will go here... on later on down the line.
32. New England Patriots - Adam Terry, OT, Syracuse
Because Tom Brady doesn't post huge numbers, he gets overlooked sometimes. But he is pivotal to the success of the Pats, and an offensive tackle prospect like Terry will help provide further protection for Brady in the pocket.
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